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Seth Lugo 2025 Outlook: AL Cy Young Runner-Up Deserves More Fantasy Respect
9 mins agoSeth Lugo was outstanding in 2024, going 16-9 with a 3.08 ERA over 206 ⅔ IP. His 3.72 xERA and 3.83 xFIP weren't quite as strong but are still usable in fantasy. The 35-year-old isn't smoke and mirrors either. Lugo added two new pitches to his repertoire last season: a cutter with a 9.4% SwStr% and 56.9% Zone%, and a split with a 15.9% SwStr%. Batters struggled against both offerings, hitting .224/.246/.224 against the cutter and .105/.105/.421 against the split. Fantasy managers may be skeptical of Lugo's .277 BABIP and 7.4% HR/FB, but Lugo's "luck" should repeat. The Royals paced MLB in Outs Above Average with 40 in 2024, and Lugo tied for eighth among pitchers with seven. Kansas City projects as a strong defensive team again, so Lugo should benefit from outstanding defense. Likewise, Kauffman Stadium's 85 Baseball Savant HR factor ranks 27th in baseball, meaning Lugo's home park should help suppress his HR/FB. The AL Central is full of weak offenses, so most of Lugo's matchups should be favorable. Lugo is well worth his ADP of 170.64 between his deep arsenal and friendly environment.
