NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 16 Bargain Bin for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Includes Geno Smith, Jerome Ford, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, more

Welcome to the Week 16 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.

Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 16th main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, here are a few particulars about format and content.

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!

Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are, therefore, suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.

Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”

This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.

The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

Quarterback DFS Value Plays

Geno Smith, SEA vs. MIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $23     

Smith suffered a knee issue that knocked him out of his team's Week 15 loss to the Packers, but he'd already shed his injury designation by Thursday after logging back-to-back full practices. Smith was clicking statistically before exiting against Green Bay, completing 15 of 19 passes for 149 yards to push his completion percentage to 69.9 percent on the season, his best in any year where he's logged more than five pass attempts.

The Seahawks figure to have to do plenty of passing against the Vikings, not only due to Minnesota's own potent offense but because how good the Vikes have been against the run. Kevin O'Connell's squad is facing an NFL-high 64.1% pass play rate, including 67.8% on the road. The Vikings are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (244.9) as a result, along with being tied for third-most completions conceded (337). Minnesota has also snagged a league-leading 20 INTs, so Smith will have to be cautious but still has the right environment on tap to succeed from a fantasy perspective.

Geno Smith says he expects to play Sunday vs Minnesota, his injured knee is feeling better, he will be playing at less than 100%.

“No excuses.” @thenewstribune pic.twitter.com/GWdAZKMOmr

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 19, 2024

Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. LAR | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $26

Rodgers came through nicely as a Bargain Bin suggestion in Week 15, continuing a sudden late-season surge by throwing for 289 yards and three touchdowns and even adding a season-high 45 rushing yards on six carries for a whopping 30.1 DK/30.1 FD/28.1 Yahoo points. That performance followed a 339-yard breakout against the Dolphins in a Week 14 OT loss, and it gave him multiple touchdown passes for the third time in four games.

Rodgers now does battle with a Rams team that's tied with several teams for fourth-most passing TDs allowed (23) and has also conceded 4.7 yards per carry and three rushing TDs to quarterbacks. Los Angeles has also allowed a higher completion rate on the road (65.8%) and an elevated 11.2 yards per completion overall, while Rodgers is clicking with old/current battery mate Davante Adams again like it's their Packers heyday.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Mason Rudolph, TEN at IND | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
• Michael Penix Jr., ATL vs. NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20

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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023

Running Back DFS Value Plays

Jerome Ford, CLE at CIN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $22           

Ford is one of the best "break glass in case of emergency" running backs in the league, seemingly always ready to step into a bigger role with success if needed. The third-year pro did plenty of that last season on his way to 1,132 total scrimmage yards and nine total TDs, and he's also flashed on occasion this season. With Nick Chubb breaking his foot in Week 15 against the Chiefs, Ford will serve as the starting running back the rest of the way beginning this week after stepping in during the second half last Sunday and ripping off a 62-yard touchdown run.

Ford should shoulder a true lead-back workload Sunday or close to it, and although the fact the offense will be led by the erratic Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a concern, the talented back usually finds a way to provide a solid return. The Bengals are allowing 126.9 rushing yards per game, including 130.7 per home game, and they're tied with multiple teams for second-most rush TDs allowed to running backs as well (14). Ford is also boasting an impressive 20.7% broken-tackle rate, upping his chances of enjoying success by getting to the second level of Cincy's suspect defense.

Jerome Ford

Nick Chubb is OUT for the season with a broken foot.

Ford has played 70%+ Snaps in three games this season…

Week 1: 18.9 Fantasy Points
Week 3: 10.0 Fantasy Points
Week 4: 15.5 Fantasy Points

Serviceable RB2 ROS if he plays majority snaps.pic.twitter.com/dRIutyW1w9

— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) December 17, 2024

Craig Reynolds, DET at CHI | DK: $4,000, FD: $4,200, Yahoo: $10

Reynolds is best left for tournaments due to uncertainty regarding his exact workload, but the veteran back appears set to be the next man up in place of David Montgomery, who suffered a multi-week knee injury in Week 15 against the Bills. Reynolds has been in this role on occasion over the years and handled himself well, even functioning as a workhorse back in Week 15 of the 2021 season against the Cardinals and rushing for 112 yards on 26 carries in that contest. He hasn't been used much as a receiver over his NFL career but can function in that role as well, having excelled as an all-purpose asset during his college days at Kutztown.

The Bears have struggled against the run all season, allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game, including 146.3 per contest in the last three. Chicago is surrendering 4.9 yards per carry to RBs overall and is tied with the Panthers for most rushing TDs allowed to the position (15). With Detroit likely to exercise at least some caution with Jahmyr Gibbs considering the postseason is right around the corner -- and the possibility the Lions have a solid lead come the fourth quarter -- Reynolds could prove solid value at near-minimum salaries.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• D'Andre Swift, CHI vs. DET | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $20

Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays  

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at LVR | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $31             

Thomas has the type of talent that can transcend both matchups and poor quarterback play, with the latest reminder of that coming just last Sunday against the Jets. Playing against a talented secondary with Mac Jones throwing him the ball, Thomas put together a career-best 10 catches that went for 105 yards and two touchdowns. The performance netted 35.5 DK/30.5 FD/27.5 Yahoo points and served as the second 100-yard game of Thomas' career.

The Raiders generally did a good job for most of the season limiting big plays through the air, but Las Vegas heads into Week 16 allowing the sixth-most yards per completion (11.4) over the last three games. Las Vegas has also yielded an average of one touchdown per game to WRs (14 in 14 games), along with 12.2 yards per catch to the position. Thomas has posted at least four receptions and 76 yards in the last four games, averaging 21.1 DK/17.7 FD/17.0 Yahoo points per contest in that span.

Brian Thomas Jr. is creating generational wealth for dynasty managers.

There were so many leagues where he was an end of the 1st round rookie draft selection.

He is already a Top-10 WR in dynasty

BTJ may go full on peak Josh Gordon in 2025pic.twitter.com/5ak27yAbvw

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) December 15, 2024

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. MIN | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,900, Yahoo: $30

Smith-Njigba makes for a very viable stacking partner with Smith, especially on DK. The breakout second-year wideout has been ascendant since Week 8, producing a 48-675-4 line on 59 targets while averaging 21.0 DK. 17.6 FD and 16.7 Yahoo points per game during that span. Smith-Njigba is averaging an impressive 2.56 yards per route run during that sample as well, and he's authored a pair of 100-yard efforts heading into a favorable matchup against the Vikings secondary Sunday.

In addition to the numbers already cited in Smith's entry that underscore Minnesota's vulnerability to the pass, it's also worth noting the Vikings have allowed an NFL-high 210 catches and 2,673 receiving yards to wide receivers, along with 15 receiving TDs and 42.8 DK/33.4 FD points per game to the position.

Calvin Ridley Jr., TEN at IND | DK: $5,700, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $23

Ridley has often been at the mercy of Will Levis' erratic quarterback play this season, but he'll be in line for a reprieve of sorts Sunday with Mason Rudolph taking the controls of the offense in a dome environment against a Colts defense that can be inconsistent. Ridley incredibly went without a catch on eight targets in a Week 6 loss to Indy, but that was a game in which Levis threw for all of 95 yards and clearly wasn't in sync with him.

However, in Weeks 7-9 when Rudolph was the starting QB, Ridley had his best game of the season (10-143 on 15 targets against the Lions) and an 18-258 line overall. Indy comes in with some drastic home/road splits against the pass, surrendering 250 per home contest (205.3 per road game), along with 10.6 yards per completion and a 67.5 percent catch rate to WRs overall.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. NYG | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $24

Tight End DFS Value Plays   

Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NE | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $16     

Kincaid made his return from a three-game absence due to a knee injury in Week 15 against the Lions and put together a solid performance, posting a 4-53 line on seven targets across 32 snaps. The talented tight end could be in for an even bigger bump in workload this week against a Patriots defense that's given up a 73-745-5 line to the position on the season.

Kincaid has at least four catches in six of his 11 games this season, and he's cleared 50 receiving yards twice overall. While he certainly hasn't been as productive as a year ago and Buffalo does spread out the ball among several targets, it's worth noting Curtis Samuel (ribs) may miss Sunday's game and New England also funnels plenty of passes to tight ends due to the presence of standout corner Christian Gonzalez on the boundary.

COLD: #Bills TE Dalton Kincaid counted his defenders as his CELLY.

🥶🥶🥶

ONE OF THE COLDEST CELEBRATIONS OF THE YEAR.
pic.twitter.com/K5DB8eEzYA

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 17, 2024

Chig Okonkwo, TEN at IND | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $11

Okonkwo's big-play ability has often been squandered over his first three seasons, but the 2022 fourth-round pick has still found his way to 16 receptions of 20+ yards, including four of 40 yards or more. That's excellent field-stretching ability for the position, and Okonkwo also happens to be coming off a season-best eight-catch outing in Week 15 against the Bengals that netted 59 yards and 13.9 DK/9.9 FD and Yahoo points.

Okonkwo also saw 10 targets overall, had a 23-yard catch wiped out by penalty and was the intended target on two interceptions, underscoring how effective he was overall. This week, he faces a Colts defense that's given up the third-most receptions (85) and is tied for the second-most touchdowns (nine) allowed to tight ends, yielding an average of 15.8 DK and 12.8 FD points per contest to the position. Six of Okonkwo's 10 catches in Week 15 came in conjunction with Rudolph as well, certainly another positive sign.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Brenton Strange, JAX at LVR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $12

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