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We enter Week 15 coming off another 1-1 outing. The Steelers won comfortably in their rematch with the Cleveland Browns, and we easily cashed that ticket. The Chargers couldn’t hang on to close out the Chiefs, and we lost that moneyline play on a last-second field goal. However, we finished Week 14 up +.9 units, so we will always take a winning day when we get one.
Contrary to last weekend, there are quite a few games I like on the card. I narrowed them down to my two favorites for this article, so let’s not waste any more time chit-chatting.
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Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are coming off a thrilling overtime victory over the New York Jets, and are now getting a lot of love in the market following that win. But did people forget that the game was against the Jets? And it took overtime for Miami to get that win?
Houston is coming off its bye and ranks higher than Miami in total team and defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. While the Texans have been struggling lately, they are simply the better team. With Miami also ranking 24th in defensive rushing DVOA, this game sets up nicely for Houston to ride Joe Mixon and the ground attack to a victory.
MIXON. 45-YARD TD.
📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Z3C33tMXWN— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024
Some believe that Miami is not getting enough respect and that the market is undervaluing it. I am on the other side and believe that Miami is one of the more overvalued teams out there. Outside of a win against the Rams in Week 10, the Dolphins don’t have any impressive victories on their resume.
I make the Texans almost six-point favorites in this spot and am expecting them to easily cover this number. Also, I believe this line will tick up as we get closer to game time, and wouldn’t be surprised if it closes on the other side of three. Get your tickets in now as this is the last -2.5 available.
Pick: Texans -2.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Both teams are coming off their bye weeks, but this is a good spot to back the Broncos at a discount. Denver ranks higher than Indianapolis in several key metrics and is just the better team. If it can slow down the Colts' ground attack and put the game on Anthony Richardson’s shoulders, that will bode very well for Denver.
Rookie Bo Nix has come on strong over the second half of the season and should have success against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game in the league. Indianapolis also allows a whopping 147 rushing yards per game (second most in the league), and this sets up as a great spot for the Denver rushing attack to get going.
Look for the Broncos to win easily and improve to 9-5 as they inch closer to securing a playoff berth.
Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1 Unit
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