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Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 14 Outlooks for Russell Wilson, Bucky Irving, Brock Bowers, and More

Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, TE, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season is officially in the books, and what a ride it was for fantasy football. From breakout stars to devastating busts, the action delivered everything we’ve come to expect in a year full of twists and turns. Week 14 will be the grand finale of bye weeks, and it will feature the Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, and Texans all taking a seat, meaning your lineups are stretched thin once more.

The grind doesn’t stop, and neither do the obstacles. Injuries continue to pile up, depth is being tested, and every lineup decision feels like it could swing your season. That’s why we break it all down every week—snap counts, target shares, backfield splits—you name it. These aren’t just numbers; they’re the keys to those razor-thin start/sit calls that separate winners from losers as the fantasy playoffs inch closer.

Whether you’re fighting for a playoff spot or trying to lock in a first-round bye, staying prepared is paramount. We’ve got you covered with all the important trends, takeaways, and insights you need to navigate the chaos. From uncovering hidden gems to maximizing those matchups, now’s the time to sharpen your edge. Let’s dive into the lessons learned from Week 13 and get you ready to finish the season strong.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Monday Night Football was an Absolute Barnburner

There was a chance the league was going to flex out Monday Night's contest between the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns, but it's a good thing that they didn't. The Broncos won 41-32 in an absolute thriller that saw plenty of exciting plays sway the momentum back and forth throughout the game.

Jameis Winston ended up throwing for 497 yards and four touchdowns with three INTs and two pick-6s, which feels like the football equivalent of going on an eight-day bender with Charlie Sheen. The lows are low, but boy, are those highs high.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix took a couple of deep shots on risky passes that he shouldn't have thrown, but he was able to connect with wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. on one that went for a 93-yard score. Neither team was able to do much on the ground, but Jaleel McLaughlin continues to look like the best running back in Denver. It was Nix's first double-digit interception game since Week 2.

Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy had an absolute revenge game of sorts against his former squad, going off with nine catches for 235 yards and one touchdown. He even let the crowd hear it on several plays, and you can only imagine how Broncos fans felt watching a player who was wildly inconsistent in Denver look like Jerry Rice on MNF.

The NFL is funny, man. Terry McLaurin is a Top 12 WR now. Courtland Sutton went from "washed" to still really good. Jeudy and Elijah Moore were trending out of the league. It turns out the QB and the system matter so much outside of maybe two WRs who are truly situation-proof. Heck, we've even seen Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb struggle this year without their quarterbacks.

 

Vintage Russell Wilson Returns

Russell Wilson has been a revelation for the Pittsburgh Steelers since taking over as their starting quarterback in Week 7.

After missing the first month-plus of the season with an injury, Wilson has led the Steelers to an impressive 5-1 record, giving the team a spark they desperately needed. It’s a comeback story that feels like a perfect fit for a quarterback who has spent much of his career proving the doubters wrong.

Wilson’s journey to Pittsburgh came after an up-and-down stint with the Denver Broncos. His 2023 season in Denver was solid on the stat sheet but relatively unspectacular, and his style of play clashed with head coach Sean Payton’s vision for the offense. The Broncos decided to move on, giving Wilson a fresh start in Pittsburgh.

For a quarterback who’s close to Hall of Fame status with a Super Bowl win already in his back pocket alongside years of elite play in Seattle, this move has reignited his career. The Steelers have embraced his leadership, and he’s thriving in a system under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith that plays to his strengths.

In Week 13, Wilson turned in his best performance, completing 29 of 38 passes (76% comp rate) for 413 yards and three touchdowns. He posted a 126.3 quarterback rating, reminding everyone that he’s still capable of putting up elite numbers.

While the Steelers’ run-heavy tendencies and methodical pace of play can sometimes limit his ceiling, Wilson has proven to be a reliable option in both real-life football and fantasy.

The Steelers’ strong defense is another factor to consider when evaluating Wilson’s fantasy value. With their ability to control games and keep opponents off the scoreboard, Wilson often isn’t asked to air it out in high-volume passing situations. That said, his ability to capitalize on limited opportunities and make plays in the red zone has made him a steady presence for fantasy managers.

Heading into Week 14, Wilson has firmly established himself as a reliable fantasy starter. While the Steelers’ approach might cap his upside in certain games, his efficiency and veteran savvy make him a valuable asset during this critical stretch.

Fantasy managers looking for consistency should feel confident rolling with Wilson as he continues to lead the Steelers toward a potential playoff berth while proving he’s still got it.

Now, heading into Week 14, Wilson looks like a rejuvenated player, and fantasy managers are starting to take notice. He may not have the week-to-week explosiveness of some younger quarterbacks, but his floor is solid, and his ceiling can still shine in the right matchups.

 

Bucky Irving Continues to Carve out a Meaningful Role

Bucky Irving is making waves as a rookie in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, carving out a meaningful role alongside Rachaad White. In Week 13, Irving showcased his potential in a thrilling overtime win over the Carolina Panthers, logging 25 rush attempts for 152 yards and a touchdown, along with three receptions for 33 yards.

The rookie running back played exactly 50% of the offensive snaps, matching White, and proved he’s ready to be a key part of Tampa’s backfield down the stretch. Heading into Week 14, Irving’s combination of efficiency and explosiveness makes him a name to watch in fantasy football.

Coming out of Oregon, Irving was an overlooked prospect. Standing at 5-foot-9 and weighing just 192 pounds, he lacked the prototypical size for an NFL running back, and his 4.55 forty-yard dash didn’t exactly wow the scouts. But for those who watched the tape, Irving’s talent was undeniable. With a low center of gravity, incredible footwork, and elite contact balance, he brought something special to the field.

Despite being undersized, Irving has shown he can absorb hits and keep moving through contact, proving that his versatility as a running back translates seamlessly to the NFL.

In his rookie campaign, Irving has continued to impress, racking up 133 rush attempts for 732 yards (a stellar 5.5 yards per carry) and six touchdowns while also catching 35 passes for 285 yards. His ability to contribute as both a runner and a receiver has made him a vital weapon in offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme.

With quarterback Baker Mayfield playing well and Tampa’s offense humming, there’s plenty of room for Irving to continue building on his rookie success. His Week 13 breakout game was just the latest example of how he’s becoming a critical piece of this team.

One of the most encouraging signs for Irving’s fantasy value is the lack of competition beyond White. Sean Tucker is no longer seeing the field, which has allowed Tampa to focus on a true two-man backfield. While Irving and White are splitting snaps, both have shown they can be productive in this setup.

With Irving’s efficiency and knack for big plays, he has the potential to be a fantasy difference-maker, even if he’s not seeing a full workhorse load. For managers in need of reliable production, he’s shaping up as a strong option.

Heading into Week 14, Irving should be on the radar for fantasy managers as a flex play with upside. His ability to contribute to all facets of the game, combined with Tampa’s balanced offense, makes him a reliable option in most formats.

While the backfield split with White will limit his ceiling at times, Irving’s consistent production and ability to break big plays ensure he remains relevant for the rest of the season. Irving is proving that he more than belongs.

 

Brock Bowers Truly is a Generational Prospect

Brock Bowers is already proving why he was considered a generational talent coming out of Georgia, and his rookie season with the Las Vegas Raiders has been nothing short of impressive. Despite some skepticism about his fit in the NFL—many viewed him as more of a wide receiver than a traditional in-line tight end—Bowers is silencing the doubters.

Selected at No. 13 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Raiders took a chance on him despite having promising prospect Michael Mayer in the fold, and it’s already paying off. With Davante Adams now in New York, Bowers has stepped into the role of Las Vegas’ No. 1 receiving option, and he’s thriving under the spotlight.

Week 13 was another special moment for Bowers, as he torched the Kansas City Chiefs defense with 10 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown. His performance showcased everything that made him such a coveted prospect: precise route running, an incredible catch radius, and a knack for turning short gains into big plays.

On the season, Bowers now has 84 receptions for 884 yards and four touchdowns, putting him well on pace to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie campaign. For fantasy managers, that kind of production at the tight end position is a massive advantage.

Many questioned whether the Raiders were the right landing spot for Bowers, given the team’s inconsistency and uncertainty at quarterback heading into 2024, but it’s clear the Raiders are leaning heavily on their rookie phenom. His ability to line up all over the field and create mismatches makes him a nightmare for defenses and a dream for fantasy managers.

Bowers is too big for corners and safeties and simply just too fast for linebackers to keep up with. It sounds simple, but when you watch him on Sundays, he's just an incredibly difficult player to defend. In a league that's all about exposing mismatches, Bowers fits the current NFL meta to a T.

What truly sets Bowers apart is his ability after the catch. He doesn’t just rack up stats through volume—he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands, turning routine receptions into highlight-worthy plays. That skill set makes him not only a high-floor option in fantasy football but also one with a sky-high ceiling.

At a position where consistent production is often hard to find, Bowers is positioning himself as a cornerstone player for fantasy managers both this season and for years to come.

Heading into Week 14, Bowers should be treated as one of the elite options at tight end. His talent, opportunity, and consistent production make him a league-winner in a position where finding a difference-maker is rare.

If you have Bowers on your roster, you’ve got a significant edge as the fantasy playoffs approach. The rookie isn’t just living up to the hype—he’s rewriting the narrative for what’s possible as a tight end.

 

Which Running Backs Were Bell-Cows in Week 13?

Let’s talk about those coveted bell-cow backs from Week 13 and how they produced for our fantasy lineups.

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 13.

Player Team Snap Share Total Touches Fantasy Points
Jonathan Taylor IND 88.7% 26 16.8
Saquon Barkley PHI 87.5% 25 18.7
Alvin Kamara NO 85.7% 27 13.9
Chase Brown CIN 80.6% 15 17.5
Chuba Hubbard CAR 78.6% 12 2.3
Josh Jacobs GB 77.8% 23 19.7
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 77.8% 21 10.9
Bijan Robinson ATL 75.3% 32 22.5
Joe Mixon HOU 74.6% 24 19.9
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG 73.0% 11 13.5
Tony Pollard TEN 72.7% 12 6.8
D'Andre Swift CHI 69.4% 13 8.4
Rico Dowdle DAL 69.3% 25 19.8
De'Von Achane MIA 69.0% 15 17.0
Kyren Williams LAR 67.8% 16 17.8
Nick Chubb CLE 66.3% 10 6.7
Kenneth Walker III SEA 61.9% 18 5.6
Ameer Abdullah LV 61.8% 12 6.3
Breece Hall NYJ 61.8% 12 6.0

A few notes on the state of the running backs heading into Week 14.

While it's fair to question just how viable the Dallas Cowboys offense can be for fantasy without quarterback Dak Prescott under center, Rico Dowdle looks locked and loaded as the team's RB1. Over their last five games, Dowdle has seen 17, 15, 12, 22, and 25 touches per game. The Cowboys have some favorable matchups coming up for fantasy as well.

Dallas plays the Bengals in Week 14 and the Panthers in Week 15, which are solid matchups for Dowdle. Week 16 and 17 could be a problem against Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, but for now, Dowdle looks locked in as an RB2 over the next two weeks.

Kyren Williams saw his lowest workload of the season with just a 67.8% snap share in Week 13, but it's probably more related to keeping him fresh for the stretch run than anything else. Williams has been a volume-dependent back for fantasy but is a clear favorite of head coach Sean McVay. Rookie Blake Corum might become more involved, but it's probably not a big cause for concern.

Josh Jacobs continues his tear as Green Bay's locked in RB1. Can you believe the Packers are 9-3 and are somehow only third in their division? That's got to be some kind of a record, right? On Thanksgiving Night, Jacobs pounded the rock just 19 times for 43 yards but found the end zone and caught four receptions for 74 yards.

That might not seem like much, but Jacobs was never used heavily as a receiver during his time with the Raiders, and it's clear just how great of a running back he is now that there's a better supporting cast around him in Green Bay. Jacobs is averaging 9.6 yards per reception, which is easily the best of his career. He is the engine that makes this offense work so well.

Christian McCaffrey left Sunday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills with a non-contact knee injury, and his season is likely over. Backup Jordan Mason was also placed on injured reserve this afternoon, which means that rookie Isaac Guerendo is the next man up. If Guerendo is available in any leagues at the moment, I'd be using whatever of my remaining FAAB left to get him.

 

Wide Receiver Target Shares and Important Data Heading into Week 14

Here are the pass catchers with the highest target shares from Week 13. Due to some load times and issues with frame rates on mobile devices, all the vital points of data you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller partner, Scott Rinear.

Below are the snap shares, and WR metrics like targets per routes run (TPRR), including other relevant data points for wide receivers in Week 13.

A few important notes on the state of the wide receivers heading into Week 14.

Houston Texans wideout Tank Dell was a player I was really high on heading into 2024, but he has been a big disappointment thus far. Dell has just two top-24 WR finishes on the season and has only topped 100 yards receiving in a game once. Thus far in the year, he had a disappointing 43 receptions for 543 yards and two touchdowns. So, for the sake of transparency, it's time to take my "L" on that call.

Dell was held to just one catch for 23 yards in Week 13 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Given how high he was drafted, he's been a lineup killer pretty much all year in fantasy.

A hat tip to Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. After never having more than seven receiving touchdowns in a single season, McLaurin had two on Sunday for a total of nine on the year. Scary Terry is on pace for his best season ever, with 61 receptions for 896 yards and nine touchdowns through 13 games in 2024.

After watching McLaurin shuffle through the likes of quarterback after quarterback through his five years in Washington, he's becoming one of the league's better wide receivers, with Jayden Daniels as quarterback. It's been nice to see one of the better dudes in the NFL thriving with solid quarterback play for a change.

Watching Drake Maye struggle back there on the Patriots without any consistent wide receiver play makes my head hurt at the thought of the reality that the Patriots drafted Ja'Lynn Polk at pick No. 37 instead of Ladd McConkey at No. 34. The Patriots swapped a fifth for a fourth by moving back three spots with the Chargers, but they wound up with the wrong wide receiver instead. That one's going to sting for a while.

 

Top Waiver Targets for Week 14

  • Isaac Guerendo, RB - San Francisco 49ers (6% rostered)
  • Ameer Abdullah, RB - Las Vegas Raiders (10% rostered)
  • Braelon Allen, RB - New York Jets (33% rostered)
  • Russell Wilson, QB - Pittsburgh Steelers (35% rostered)
  • Juwan Johnson, TE - New Orleans Saints (5% rostered)

This will be our final week of waiver pickups with the fantasy playoffs looming large. My general rule is to ride or die with your studs during the fantasy playoffs, with few exceptions. We are more so using our remaining FAAB to play keep away from our opponents than we are rushing to start unproven players. However, Guerendo is the exception as we can still trust in Kyle Shanahan.

 

Conclusion

Week 14 brings another brutal bye week, with six teams (Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, and Texans) taking a seat. Staying ahead of the chaos on waivers is the name of the game, although the good news is after this week, we won't have to deal with those wretched byes anymore.

Right now is the time to keep your fantasy radar dialed in and your waiver wire strategy sharp. Whether it’s finding those sneaky flex plays or stashing key handcuffs for the postseason push, this is the stretch where preparation separates the contenders from the pretenders. Week 14 is the perfect chance to reset, reload, and make your lineup decisions count.

Thanks for riding along with me through this week’s fantasy breakdown! I’ll be here every step of the way to help you stay ahead and dominate your league. Got questions or need advice? You know where to find me on X! Let’s keep those lineups sharp and finish strong—here’s to making every matchup matter in the home stretch!



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