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Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 13 Outlooks for Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, Courtland Sutton, and More

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News
Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season is behind us, and what a rollercoaster it was for fantasy. Some even referred to it as "bye-mageddon" with the Bengals, Bills, Jaguars, Jets, and Saints on a bye all making our lineups more complicated, but the games more than delivered. Whether you were riding the highs of a breakout performance or feeling the sting of a major bust, Week 12 had all the drama we’ve come to expect this year.

It’s been a grind, no doubt about it. Injuries are stacking up, and depth is being tested across the board. That’s why we dig into the details every week—snap counts, target shares, backfield splits, you name it. These aren’t just stats; they’re the secret sauce for nailing those crucial start/sit decisions that can make or break your week.

Now, as we turn our attention to Week 13, things look a little different. Thanksgiving week means no teams are on bye, which gives us a full slate of games to work with. Whether you’re pushing for a playoff spot, clinging to your postseason dreams, or locking down a first-round bye, I’ve got the insights to help you stay ahead of the curve. Let’s break down the trends, key takeaways, and everything you need to know to crush Week 13!

 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

Patrick Mahomes Shows off his Old Bag of Tricks

Patrick Mahomes finally delivered the monster performance fantasy managers have been waiting for, breaking the 25-point barrier for the first time this season in Week 12. He was sharp and efficient, completing 27 of 37 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns while adding five rush attempts for 60 yards on the ground.

It was vintage Mahomes, making plays both through the air and with his legs, reminding everyone why he’s still one of the best in the game, even in a challenging season.

The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been its usual juggernaut self, largely due to injuries to key wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. With those weapons sidelined, Kansas City has leaned more heavily on its defense, which has morphed into one of the best units in the league.

That shift in team identity has capped Mahomes’ ceiling at times, as game scripts haven’t demanded the kind of high-volume passing days we’ve come to expect. Still, Mahomes proved in Week 12 that he can rise above the circumstances and deliver when it counts.

Heading into Week 13, Mahomes remains a must-start in all formats, even if the Chiefs continue their more balanced, defense-first approach. His rushing ability adds a valuable floor, and if the receivers can step up or get healthy, his ceiling is still among the highest in fantasy.

With the playoffs just around the corner, this breakout performance is a promising sign that Mahomes is gearing up to carry both the Chiefs and fantasy managers to big things down the stretch as they look to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Josh Jacobs Come on Down

Josh Jacobs reminded everyone why he’s still one of the best backs in the league with a dominant performance in Week 12, rushing 26 times for 106 yards and three touchdowns. It was a vintage workhorse day for Jacobs, who continues to prove he’s the Packers’ go-to guy in the backfield.

Heading into 2024, many expected rookie MarShawn Lloyd to siphon touches and potentially challenge for the lead role, but Lloyd’s inability to stay healthy has left the door wide open for Jacobs to carry the load—and he’s doing it in style. Over the last four weeks, Jacobs has posted three Top 5 fantasy finishes, solidifying himself as a league-winner during the most critical stretch of the season.

The Packers have leaned heavily on him as they make a serious playoff push, and with his ability to handle a massive workload, there’s no reason to expect that trend to change. Jacobs has been delivering in high-volume situations, finding the end zone with regularity and racking up fantasy points in bunches.

Heading into Week 13, Jacobs remains an RB1 in all formats, especially with the Packers fully committed to feeding him the rock. His recent success makes him one of the most reliable options at the position, and as long as he’s healthy, the ceiling is sky-high. With the playoffs looming, fantasy managers should feel confident riding Jacobs as the centerpiece of their lineups as he powers both the Packers and your team to big wins.

 

Courtland Sutton Continues to Produce

Courtland Sutton has come a long way since his disastrous Week 7 performance where he was held catch-less. Since then, he’s been a force in fantasy football, proving that he’s still a top-tier playmaker in the Broncos’ offense. Sutton was dominant in Week 12, turning 10 targets into eight receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns.

He’s developed a strong connection with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and it’s paying off for fantasy managers who stuck with him through the ups and downs.

Heading into the season, there were plenty of question marks surrounding Sutton’s fantasy value. A rookie quarterback under center can often spell trouble for wide receivers, but Bo Nix has quickly found his rhythm, and this Broncos offense is firing on all cylinders. Sutton has emerged as their go-to target, and his ability to win contested catches and make plays in the red zone has solidified his role as a fantasy difference-maker.

With Nix playing confidently, Sutton is shaping up as a must-start option for Week 13 and beyond. His target volume and red-zone usage make him a high-upside play, especially as Denver continues to fight for a playoff spot. If you’ve got Sutton on your roster, lock him into your lineup and enjoy the ride as he continues to shine in one of the NFL’s most improved offenses.

 

Which Running Backs Saw Bell-Cow Usage in Week 12?

Let’s talk about those backfield bell-cows from Week 12. If your go-to running back didn’t light up the fantasy scoreboard, it could've been the game-script.

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 12.

Player Team Snap Share Total Touches Fantasy Points
Jonathan Taylor IND 96.4% 11 3.5
Tony Pollard TEN 94.0% 27 20.4
Kyren Williams LAR 90.6% 16 11.2
Ameer Abdullah LV 89.6% 13 15.0
Chuba Hubbard CAR 88.7% 17 14.5
Christian McCaffrey SF 81.6% 14 6.3
Aaron Jones MIN 78.9% 25 18.4
Joe Mixon HOU 76.8% 19 7.0
James Conner ARI 69.0% 12 7.4
Saquon Barkley PHI 68.1% 30 44.2
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 66.7% 24 23.4
Nick Chubb CLE 64.4% 21 18.5
Kenneth Walker III SEA 64.1% 20 11.3
Austin Ekeler WAS 62.9% 11 3.4
Rico Dowdle DAL 60.6% 22 9.3
Derrick Henry BAL 60.0% 24 14.0

 

Top Waiver Targets for Week 13

 

Conclusion

Week 13 brings us a Thanksgiving feast of football with zero teams on bye, so we’ve got a full slate to work with—finally, a little breathing room! But don’t get too comfortable because Week 14 brings another brutal bye week, with six teams (Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, and Texans) taking a seat. Staying ahead of the chaos on waivers is the name of the game.

Right now, is the time to keep your fantasy radar dialed in and your waiver wire strategy sharp. Whether it’s finding that sneaky flex play or stashing key handcuffs for the postseason push, this is the stretch where preparation separates the contenders from the pretenders. Thanksgiving week is the perfect chance to reset, reload, and make your lineup decisions count.

Thanks for riding along with me through this week’s fantasy breakdown! I’ll be here every step of the way to help you stay ahead and dominate your league. Got questions or need advice? You know where to find me on X! Let’s keep those lineups sharp and finish strong—here’s to making every matchup matter in the home stretch!



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