D/ST Strength of Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football Defense/Special Teams Matchups (2024)

Ahh, the good old Defense/Special Teams (DST) position in fantasy football. It is a controversial inclusion in fantasy lineups for some fantasy players, but strategizing around DSTs is one of my favorite aspects of the in-season fantasy football experience. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special Teams (DST) position.

I wrote a weekly DST rankings piece for RotoBaller last year. The schedule of life disallowed me from making that same commitment in 2024, but my analysis and strength of the scheduling process for the DST position are alive and well (and improved in my completely objective opinion).

So, instead of a weekly piece, this article dives into the strength of schedule for the DST position for the rest of the season, capped off by a specific “road map” that can be used by my fellow DST streamers, who can be found grinding that waiver wire in fantasy leagues across the globe.

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Fantasy Strength of Schedule Process

You may have read my preseason article series for RotoBaller where I covered projected fantasy strength of schedule for the skill positions. The criteria I use before the season starts differs from what I am using for the strength of schedule during the season.

A DST’s opponent's strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that DST in a given week. But it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two options.

By looking at current and future matchup difficulties and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., Rest of the Regular Season and Fantasy Playoffs), it also allows you to strategize for DST streaming options.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up. And vice versa.

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then we’ll look closer at the different scheduled time frames.

Fantasy matchups are something I’ve spent a lot of time on over the last three years. During the season I compile game log data for every game to arrive at raw fantasy points allowed to each position as soon as possible each week, and the goal is to have the results available before waivers so matchup strength can be factored into those decisions.

Plenty of sites provide fantasy points allowed data. I choose to do it myself so I can rearrange and reorganize in ways I think are helpful. Raw points allowed are helpful but don’t tell the full story. It’s important to dig a little deeper and look at points allowed relative to an opponent’s average.

For example, if Team A gives up 10 fantasy points to the Vikings DST and Team B gives up the same number of points to the Panthers DST, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B having the same matchup difficulty versus DSTs. Using “Points Over Average Allowed (POAA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through nine weeks, the Vikings DST has averaged 11.9 points per game and the Panthers DST has averaged 2.9 points per game. Using POAA, Team A held Minnesota 1.9 points under their average (a POAA of -1.9) while Team B allowed Carolina to score 7.1 points above their average (a POAA of +7.1).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons.

Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.”

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy DSTs:

1. Raw fantasy points are allowed to DSTs per game.
2. POAA to DSTs per game; season-long.
3. POAA to DSTs per game over the last three games.
4. POAA to DSTs per game over the last five games.

Pressure Rate

While this metric is not factored into my adjusted fantasy points allowed process, pressure rate is a useful statistic to factor into the strategy of choosing a DST. A defense’s rate is calculated using the following equation:

• (QB Hurries + QB Knockdowns + QB Sacks) divided by QB Dropbacks

Other than sacks, the frequency with which a defense pressures the opposing QB does not directly equate to fantasy points. But pressure on the QB that does not end in a sack can increase the chances of the QB making a poor throw, fumbling, or simply not moving the ball toward a scoring opportunity for the offense.

The following chart shows each DST and their season-long pressure rate. I also calculated the average pressure rate allowed by each team’s remaining opponents. Looking at the data from this angle is a useful piece of the strategy beyond just adjusted fantasy points allowed.

A higher pressure rate combined with a higher average pressure rate allowed by a DST’s opponents lends to good opportunities for sacks and turnovers. For example, the Rams’ remaining schedule ranks as the eighth toughest when only looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

However, they have the third-highest pressure rate, and their remaining opponents, looking at Weeks 11-14 and the Fantasy Playoff time frames, have relatively high-pressure rates allowed.

The other team that stands out here is Kansas City. With a rostership of 73.2%, they are likely, not available in your league, but you should be excited if you already roster the Chiefs DST. They have the 10^th-highest pressure rate and their opponents during the fantasy playoffs average the highest pressure rate allowed in that span.

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of the regular season (ROS) schedule (Weeks 11-17) with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy DST position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

A higher number of ranks with a green color represents more favorable matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for DSTs is included at the end of the article.

This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual numbered rank (1-32) of each opponent. Also included are each team’s ROS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17) SOS score (average of opponent ranks in those time frames).

As a teaser, the following teams have the top 10 most favorable ROS DST schedules. Included in parentheses is the current rosters percentage for each team (calculated as the average rosters across the ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo Fantasy platforms).

Also included are the number of “Plus Matchups” for each team (opponents ranked 20^th or worse versus DSTs):

1. Buccaneers (15.9%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Five
2. Cardinals (4.9%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Five
3. Jaguars (7.1%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Four
4. Colts (9.2%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Four
5. Bengals (27.9%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Three
6. Dolphins (52.2%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Four
7. Falcons (20.6%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Three
8. Saints (36%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Three
9. Broncos (59.3%)
   1. Plus Matchups: Two
10. Vikings (91.7%)
    1. Plus Matchups: Four

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

• Rest of Regular Season (RORS): Weeks 11-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for DSTs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

Strength of Schedule: Rest of Regular Season

The following chart shows DST’s schedule over the next four games (Weeks 11-14). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

The current average rosters percentage (across ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo Fantasy platforms) is also included for each team. This is a new twist specifically added to the DST data, as many managers are streaming the position by this time, and the reality of what teams are and might be available is important context.

The Buccaneers have the highest SOS Score, which translates to the most favorable schedule for DSTs in Weeks 11-14. They do have a bye in Week 11, but then face the Giants (30^th), Panthers (24^th), and Raiders (32^nd).

Tampa Bay is also readily available with a rostership of 15.9%. The problem is they have only been a middle-of-the-pack fantasy DST so far, ranking 16^th in DST PPG, and rank 19^th in pressure rate (21.4%).

Next up is the Texans, who were my favorite streamers before Week 11. I define a DST streamer as a DST that has a rostership below 50%. Before Week 11 waivers, the Texans DST had a rostership of 45% and therefore qualified as a streamer.

However, their rostership shot up 25.2% during the Week 11 waiver period, and they now sit at 70.1%. If you were able to snag them for their tasty Week 11 matchup versus Cooper Rush and the hapless Cowboys, congratulations. They also have the fifth-highest pressure rate.

The chart below shows each DST’s rostership in Week 10 and their current rostership after Week 11 waivers. The Texans DST had the second-highest rostership jump this week behind only the Dolphins (+29.8%).

The third-most favorable DST schedule during Weeks 11-14 belongs to the Cardinals, who, after their Week 11 bye, get the Seahawks twice (27^th) and the Vikings. The Vikings may seem like an odd team to list in a favorable schedule, but the numbers are what they are. Minnesota currently ranks 21^st against DSTs in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

The Saints and Broncos round out the top five most favorable DST schedules in Weeks 11-14. The Saints have shown defensive flashes and are more readily available (36% rostership), but they rank 20^th in pressure rate and 19^th in DST PPG.

The Broncos' rostership has held steady in recent weeks, surprisingly less than 10% above the 50% rostership stream threshold. They have a relatively tough matchup against Atlanta in Week 11, so watch your league’s waiver wire like a hawk.

If they become available, scoop them up for their Week 12 matchup against the Raiders (32^nd) and Week 13 versus the Browns (31^st).

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable DST schedules in Weeks 11-14 are listed below:

• Sixth: Dolphins; 52.2% rostership; 19.3% pressure rate (25^th)
  • Week 11: Raiders (32^nd)
  • Week 12: Patriots (25^th)
  • Week 13: Packers (13^th)
  • Week 14: Jets (20^th)
• Seventh: Commanders; 29.3% rostership; 25.6% pressure rate (12^th)
  • Week 11: Eagles (12^th)
  • Week 12: Cowboys (26^th)
  • Week 13: Titans (29^th)
  • Week 14: BYE
• Eighth: Jets; 67.4% rostership; 26.9% pressure rate (ninth)
  • Week 11: Colts (19^th)
  • Week 12: BYE
  • Week 13: Seahawks (27^th)
  • Week 14: Dolphins (17^th)
• Ninth: Lions; 77.8% rostership; 27.1% pressure rate (eighth)
  • Week 11: Jaguars (23^rd)
  • Week 12: Colts (19^th)
  • Week 13: Bears (28^th)
  • Week 14: Packers (13^th)
• 10th: Steelers; 78.6% rostership; 22.6% pressure rate (16^th)
  • Week 11: Jaguars (23^rd)
  • Week 12: Colts (19^th)
  • Week 13: Bears (28^th)
  • Week 14: Packers (13^th)

Strength of Schedule: Fantasy Playoffs

The following chart shows each DST’s schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

DST Streaming Road Map

Rather than go through the same process of looking at the top 10 most favorable playoff schedules, it is more useful to look ahead, based on the data presented in this article, and develop what I am calling a “DST Streaming Road Map” for the rest of the season.

There are only two DSTs in the top 10 fantasy playoff schedule pool that have a rostership above 50% (Packers and Vikings). The rest qualify as streamers so we can put together a road map of DSTs to aim for each week, from now through the fantasy playoffs.

For each week, I will provide my top streaming option (Option 1), and a secondary option (Option 2):

Week 11:

• Option 1: Rams (28.9% rostership; eighth-most favorable matchup versus the Patriots)
• Option 2: Saints (36% rostership; second-most favorable matchup versus the Browns)

Week 12:

• Option 1: Commanders (29.3% rostership; seventh-most favorable matchup versus the Cowboys)
• Option 2: Buccaneers (15.9% rostership; third-most favorable matchup versus the Giants)

In Week 12, make sure to check if the Broncos DST becomes available (currently 59.3% rostered) as Denver would easily be my top choice against the Raiders (currently the most favorable matchup).

Week 13:

• Option 1: Commanders (29.3% rostership; fourth-most favorable matchup versus the Titans. This makes the Commanders even more appealing in Week 12, as they are a top streamer for two consecutive weeks leading into their Week 13 bye.
• Option 2: Giants (17.8% rostership; seventh-most favorable matchup versus the Cowboys)

Week 14:

• Option 1: Bengals (27.9% rostership; seventh-most favorable matchup versus the Cowboys)
• Option 2: Buccaneers (15.9% rostership; most favorable matchup versus the Raiders)

Week 15:

• Option 1: Bengals (27.9% rostership; fourth-most favorable matchup versus the Titans)
• Option 2: Cardinals (4.9% rostership; eighth-most favorable matchup versus the Patriots). The Cardinals DST has been quietly awesome over the last two weeks, with double-digit fantasy points and nine sacks combined in the two games.

Week 16:

• Option 1: Falcons (20.6% rostership; third-most favorable matchup versus the Giants). Keep in mind the Falcons also have a great Week 15 matchup against the 32^nd-ranked Raiders.
• Option 2: Bengals (27.9% rostership; second-most favorable matchup versus the Browns)

Week 17:

• Option 1: Seahawks (10.7% rostership; fifth-most favorable matchup versus the Bears). The Seahawks have been all over the map as a team, but they do currently have the 11^th-highest pressure rate (26.2%).
• Option 2: Saints (36% rostership; most favorable matchup versus the Raiders)

Before I go, I will leave you with the ROS heat map schedules for each team for the DST position (Weeks 11-17), ordered from best to worst SOS scores. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of the schedule each week.

I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X or Bluesky Social (@MunderDifflinFF on both).

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