Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 11 Outlooks for Kyler Murray, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, and More

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are Soaring to New Heights

Kyler Murray is showing us a whole new level of maturity and toughness in 2024, translating into one of his best fantasy seasons yet. Through ten games, he’s completed 191 of 276 passes for a 69.2% completion rate, racking up 2,058 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

Murray's been efficient, smart with his decisions, and a true dual threat under center. His legs are still a huge part of his game too: Murray has 46 rushes for 371 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Watching him pop back up after taking a huge hit from Quincy Williams in the game against the Jets showed just how tough he’s become; he’s playing with a grit and focus we haven’t seen.

This season has been fantasy gold for Murray managers, with four Top 5 finishes so far and the Cardinals rolling on a four-game winning streak to sit at 6-4. It’s safe to say he’s hitting his stride, and Arizona is benefiting big-time from his leadership and playmaking.

This isn’t just Kyler running around aimlessly while hoping for the best—he’s methodically dissecting defenses and bringing the Cardinals a sense of stability at the position. With Murray at the helm, Arizona has become a legitimate playoff contender, and he’s showing he can be a true franchise quarterback.

Kyler Murray completed 22-of-24 for 266 yards and a TD against the Jets (career-high +21.6% CPOE), including each of his last 17 passes.

The odds of Murray completing each of his last 17 passes based on the probability of each attempt:

💡 1 in 408 (0.245%)

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/clGT9nsCTr

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2024

A huge factor in Murray’s success has been the supporting cast around him. James Conner has been steady on the ground, providing that power-back presence to keep defenses honest. Then there’s the dynamic duo at wide receiver—rookie standout Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson—giving Murray reliable options on the outside.

Tight end Trey McBride has also become a dependable target over the middle, giving Murray a well-rounded set of weapons that’s helped elevate his play to the next level. With this offense clicking, Murray’s in prime position to keep putting up big numbers as we head into the back half of the season.

Simply put, this is arguably the best football we’ve ever seen from Kyler Murray. He’s been consistent, efficient, and, most importantly for fantasy, incredibly productive. Managers who took a chance on him this year are reaping the rewards of a QB who’s matured in both his approach and his execution. Heading into Week 11, there’s every reason to keep rolling him out as a high-end QB1 with plenty of upside.

Ja'Marr Chase Goes Nuclear on TNF

Ja'Marr Chase is a force of nature on the field, and his athleticism and skill are nothing short of jaw-dropping. Through ten games, he’s racked up 87 targets, 66 receptions, 981 yards, and 10 touchdowns, showing why he’s among the elite in fantasy. His Thursday Night Football performance against the Ravens was one for the ages—11 receptions, 264 yards, and three touchdowns for a massive 49.9 fantasy points!

He’s put up three Top 2 WR finishes on the year, and when the Bengals are in a tight game, you can almost bank on Chase delivering those highlight-reel moments.

The Bengals’ defense, which has struggled to hold opponents all season, has been a blessing in disguise for fantasy purposes. With plenty of shootouts on the schedule, Chase is seeing consistent volume, and his chemistry with Joe Burrow has been on full display. Chase’s big-play ability combined with Cincinnati’s need to keep pace offensively is creating the perfect storm for his fantasy production.

Ja'Marr Chase, you are absurd. Wow.

pic.twitter.com/7Sk3acCSe8

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 8, 2024

One of the things that sets Chase apart is his ability to find that second gear in the open field. Once he breaks away, it’s like he just hits a top speed that leaves defenders in the dust. Whether it’s on a deep route or a crosser over the middle, once he gets separation, it’s nearly impossible to catch him.

Fantasy managers love Chase's big-play potential because it doesn’t take much for Chase to turn a routine catch into a massive gain—or even a touchdown. He’s the kind of player who can turn around a matchup with one or two big plays, and this season, he’s done it time and time again.

Chase is a generational talent, and the best part. He’s got the security of playing alongside Burrow for years to come. This duo is just scratching the surface of what they’re capable of, and as long as they’re on the field together, Chase will remain a top-tier fantasy option.

Bijan Robinson Shows What Made Him a Special Prospect

Bijan Robinson is the truth.

pic.twitter.com/fC1XuMF5ak

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 10, 2024

What makes Bijan truly special is how naturally he excels at every aspect of the position. Whether he’s powering through tackles, breaking out in the open field, or making smooth catches as a receiving option, he makes it all look easy. His ability to stay involved in both the running and passing game gives him an elite floor, and if the Falcons keep finding ways to utilize him creatively, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in fantasy.

Wide Receiver Target Share Data from Week 10

Here are the wide receivers with the highest target shares from Week 10. Due to some longer load times and problems with frame rates on mobile devices, all of the important data points you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Here are the pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important data points for all the pass-catchers in Week 10.

💥Week 10 Leaderboard: Top 40 WRs💥

PPR Top 40 WRs (includes MNF)

Chart includes:
Fantasy Points (FPTS)
FPTS per Target
FPTS per Route
Snap Share
Routes Run
Route%
Targets
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
Target Share

*Snaps/Routes data from @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/VjkoYXqnnS

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) November 12, 2024

A few important notes regarding the wide receivers heading into Week 11.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had a solid outing with nine targets to finish with five receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns. Since veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, Ridley has seen the lion's share of the targets with 32 over the last three weeks. Sheesh!

The consistency might not always be there for Ridley with how inconsistent quarterback Will Levis has been, but it's very hard to sit him for fantasy with this kind of volume each week. The only players with more targets over the last three weeks than Ridley are Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. That's some good company.

On the flip side, the New York Jets’ wide receivers are stuck in a tailspin. With Aaron Rodgers struggling and probably at the end, it’s hard to see a real path to relevance for Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Tyler Conklin. It might be time for Rodgers to hang it up after 2024, and this team could be headed for another long rebuild.

Both the Cowboys and Jets are feeling the effects of shaky QB situations, and for fantasy managers, it’s time to lower expectations and maybe look elsewhere for more reliable production and the same can be said for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. While benching him seems unfathomable, Lamb was able to muster just six receptions for 21 yards in Week 10. Ouch.

He might be a tight end, but it's important to note that T.J. Hockenson has returned for the Minnesota Vikings and in his debut saw nine targets to finish with eight receptions for 72 yards. That's a positive sign.

Which Running Backs Saw Bell-Cow Usage in Week 10?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 10.

Here are some important takeaways regarding running backs.

Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard remains locked in as a fantasy RB1 going forward. They recently re-signed him to a 4-year / $33.2 million contract, despite drafting Texas running back Jonathon Brooks at No. 46 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's definitely an interesting way to use prime resources on a roster barren with holes, but one thing remains clear, the Panthers just need good football players. Many of them.

This is not a good sign for Brooks in fantasy as he should suit up in the team's Week 12 contest after their bye. Many were excited about Brooks as a prospect before tearing his ACL before the end of the 2023 NCAA season, and now they have to hope his talent is truly elite. But with Hubbard looking like a very capable back, that seems problematic right now.

The Latest Injury Updates

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jons took a hit to the ribs and was carted to the locker room in the third quarterback, but he returned to the game. Monitor his health going forward. Here are all the other important injury details you need below.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Texans Nico Collins - Likely inactive cuz each wk lowers re-injury risk (~15% right now). If no setback, data favors Wk 11 return at 90+%#Bills Dalton Kincaid - Video suggests contusion vs PCL sprain. MRI Mon. Suspect short-term (if any) absence

1/9

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) November 11, 2024

Top Waiver Targets for Week 11

• Ricky Pearsall, WR - San Francisco 49ers (39% rostered)
• Russell Wilson, QB - Pittsburgh Steelers (31% rostered)
• Trey Benson, RB - Arizona Cardinals (20% rostered, do it after their Week 11 bye)
• Khalil Herbert, RB - Cincinnati Bengals (26% rostered, but beware of Week 12 bye)
• DeMario Douglas, WR - New England Patriots (22% rostered)

Conclusion

We’re deep into the heart of the season now, and every game feels like they matter a little bit more. And can we just take a moment to appreciate the Detroit Lions? Every week it seems like they're finding new ways to win. Since my Browns are pretty much out of it, I'll be rooting for the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions the rest of the way. Us Rust Belt folks stick together!

Right now, is prime time to keep those fantasy radar dishes tuned in, looking for those hidden gems on the waiver wire that could make the difference in your lineup. In Week 11, the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will head into their bye week. Coming up, Weeks 12 and 14 will be brutal, with six teams out each week—it’s going to be a scramble to stay prepared.

Thanks for hanging with me through this week’s fantasy rundown! Keep checking back for those insight drops to help give you that extra edge. Got questions, or need a little advice? You know where to find me on X! Let’s keep those lineups locked and ready to roll for a strong finish. Here’s to making every play count!

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