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Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 7 Outlooks for Jared Goff, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and More

AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Another week of the 2024 NFL season is in the books and fall weather is upon us. The leaves are changing, there's a mini chill in the air, and Halloween decorations abound. As a Midwesterner, it's my favorite time of year. Here's to hoping the fantasy season is treating you well, but if you are struggling, just know you're not alone. This has easily been the most frustrating season regarding injuries to star players in a long time.

If you've been following along with this article each week, we've been keeping an eye on snap counts, noting who’s hogging all the targets, how backfields are divided, as well as catching any sneaky trends that are popping up across the NFL. Trust me, this isn't just filler, it's critical for acing those tough start/sit calls and grabbing top-tier waiver wire gems.

So, what's the buzz as we roll into Week 7? We will be a little light on the bye weeks with just the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys out of action in Week 7, but let’s unpack the latest info from this past week and get you prepped to crush your upcoming fantasy matchups!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

A.J. Brown Makes His Triumphant Return

After missing the last month with a hamstring injury, the Eagles star wide receiver returned to action against the Browns in Week 6, seeing a 37.5% target share to finish with six receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. It was a must-needed lift for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was also without wide receiver DeVonta Smith in their Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay.

Brown is one of the best receivers in football and when Philadelphia's offense is healthy, they have a nice arsenal of talent with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. After disappointing for fantasy in Weeks 2-3, Hurts was able to get back to his usual high-scoring ways with a 21.9 PPG finish in Week 6, although he has just one game so far with over 33-plus yards rushing.

Brown finished with 20.6 fantasy points in half-PPR formats and is the clear primary target for this offense in go-to situations.

Expect Brown, Smith, and Barkley to be top fantasy options in this offense the rest of the way and for Hurts to finally get clicking now that this offense is back at full strength.

 

What to Make of the Tampa Bay Bucs Backfield?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White missed the team's Week 6 contest with an injury and the void was filled by rookie Bucky Irving and second-year player Sean Tucker. Both players would rush 28 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns as the Bucs dropped a 50-burger on the Saints. Tucker and Irving would also combine for five receptions for 80 yards and another score. Sheesh.

White is a fantastic pass catcher out of the backfield, but there have been some severe concerns about his rushing efficiency since he entered the league in 2022, and the coaching staff has tried to lighten his load by getting Irving more involved. Factor in Tucker potentially carving out a role in this offense as well, and well, yeah, this could become an awful three-headed monster for fantasy.

It's still too early to say, but Tucker was a guy who showed some promise during his time at Syracuse in college, but ended up going undrafted due to a medical condition that was discovered at the 2023 NFL Combine. He would sign with the Bucs shortly after the draft and ended up making the team. Tucker didn't do much as a rookie, but it's safe to say he looked impressive on Sunday.

One of the things that kept Tucker off the field as a rookie was his lack of pass protection, but on Sunday he finished with 32.7 fantasy points and was considered PFF's best rusher of Week 6, averaging 9.7 yards per carry.

Tampa's offense has been solid for fantasy with quarterback Baker Mayfield continuing to roll and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continuing to be maybe the most underrated duo in the league. We still want pieces of this Bucs offense for fantasy in 2024, but this backfield situation will be one to monitor closely going forward.

 

Baltimore and Derrick Henry Keep Rolling

Week 6 was a feast for fantasy managers with stakes in the Baltimore Ravens, and if you're one of those lucky folks, you're probably still grinning. Let's talk about what went down, because the Ravens' offense, under the wizardry of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, was nothing short of spectacular.

Starting with the ground game, Derrick Henry turned back the clock, steamrolling for a whopping 132 yards on 24 carries and finding the end zone twice. Henry was doling out stiff arms like Halloween candy, reminding everyone why he’s been a fantasy darling for years. Then, swinging over to the aerial attack, Zay Flowers erupted for 132 yards on 9 catches, slicing through defenses with the precision of a hot knife through butter.

The real magic, though, might just be brewing for Lamar Jackson. Under Monken's scheme, Jackson's dual-threat capabilities are being maximized in ways that scream MVP season again. If this offensive symphony keeps playing as sweetly as it did in Week 6, we’re not just looking at potential fantasy championships for those smart enough to draft Ravens players, we’re looking at Jackson possibly snagging another NFL MVP trophy.

Henry unlocks a new element that the Ravens offense hasn't had despite some potent rushing offenses in years past. With a back like Henry paired with a quarterback like Jackson, defenses have to pick their poison. Defensive fronts are typically playing wider to keep Lamar from getting to the edge, but it's creating rushing lanes inside for Henry to just munch on defenses every week!

Keep your eyes glued here, folks, because Baltimore is cooking up something special, and that 0-2 start seems like a lifetime ago. It' still valid to have questions about tight end Mark Andrews for fantasy, but Jackson, Henry, and Flowers are all looking spectacular right now.

 

Wide Receiver Target Share Data from Week 6

Here are the wide receivers with the highest target shares from Week 6. Due to load times and frame rates on mobile devices, all of the important nuggets of info you need are below in a separate tweet from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear.

Here are the pass-catching metrics, snap shares, targets per routes run (TPRR), and other important data points for all the pass catchers in Week 6.

A few important notes regarding wide receivers in Week 6.

Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin dropped 30 fantasy points in half PPR formats in Week 6. The talented player from Penn State finished with 13 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin started the season with two top-12 finishes but sputtered out with under 10 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. The consistent volume is there each week, but the touchdowns haven't always been.

Godwin's touchdowns by season since 2018: 7, 9, 7, 5, 3, 2, and already five in 2024. He's still a solid option for fantasy but the spike weeks like this one due to finding the end zone twice might not always be there for your lineups.

Jaguars tight end Evan Engram returned to action after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury and finished with 10 receptions for 102 yards. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL's biggest disappointments after their 1-5 start, but they still have plenty of intriguing options on offense for fantasy with Engram, rookie Brian Thomas Jr., and Christian Kirk, alongside running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.

The better question is how soon can quarterback Trevor Lawrence get out of his current funk? Until that happens, there might not be a large enough passing pie to go around in Jacksonville to support all of those weapons.

As mentioned last week, Terry McLaurin finally has a quarterback and it's showing up on the stat sheet. Scary Terry has six or more targets in all but one of the Commanders' games thus far and has found the endzone in three of the last four. McLaurin saw seven targets in Week 6 to finish with six receptions for 53 yards and two TDs. With Jayden Daniels, his career is now no longer capped by below-average quarterback play.

 

The Lions Offense Puts up 47 Points

Week 6 was a showcase for the Detroit Lions, who put on an offensive clinic that’ll be the talk of fantasy football leagues everywhere. Jared Goff was slinging it like a man possessed, racking up 315 yards and three touchdowns. His arm was on fire, and he wasn’t just checking down, Goff was carving up the Cowboys' secondary like it was a Thanksgiving turkey.

But let’s not forget about the dynamic duo in the backfield. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs turned the gridiron into their personal playground, churning out a combined 143 rushing yards and dancing into the end zone twice between them. These guys complement each other like peanut butter and jelly, and they're proving to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

The aerial assault didn’t stop with Goff, though. Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and tight end Sam LaPorta each snagged a touchdown, turning the end zone into a Lions-only party. It’s like every time Goff threw the ball, it was a direct invitation to celebrate in the end zone. By the time the dust settled, the Lions had hung a whopping 47 points on the Cowboys, leaving them dazed and confused on their own turf.

This Detroit offense isn’t just clicking, it’s exploding, and if they keep this up, we’re looking at some serious fantasy gold mines across the board. So, if you’ve got Lions on your fantasy roster, you're probably grinning from ear to ear right about now.

 

What RBs saw Bell Cow like Usage in Week 6?

Alright, folks, let’s break down those backfield blues. If your lead horse didn’t gallop across your fantasy scoreboard this week, let’s peep the game tape. Picture this: his squad's down by three touchdowns before you can blink, and he's not exactly Mr. Reliable in the pass game. No wonder his stats didn’t pop! Remember, the script of the game tells more of the tale than you might think.

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60% snap share in Week 6.

Player Team Snap Share Total Touches Fantasy Points
Breece Hall NYJ 87.3% 23 19.4
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG 83.5% 23 19.7
Chuba Hubbard CAR 81.8% 23 12.8
Saquon Barkley PHI 79.0% 20 6.4
Austin Ekeler WAS 74.5% 13 8.8
Alvin Kamara NO 74.3% 18 14.9
Tony Pollard TEN 74.1% 20 16.3
J.K. Dobbins LAC 73.1% 27 17.2
Kenneth Walker III SEA 69.2% 22 16.9
Alexander Mattison LV 68.3% 19 15.0
D'Andre Swift CHI 68.2% 21 19.9
Javonte Williams DEN 67.8% 9 3.1
Bucky Irving TB 64.5% 16 17.5
Derrick Henry BAL 63.2% 24 25.2
Josh Jacobs GB 63.0% 21 10.5
Chase Brown CIN 62.3% 12 13.4
Trey Sermon IND 60.0% 18 2.9

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon shook off that pesky high ankle sprain and was back on the field looking fresher than new money. Mixon scampered for 102 yards off 13 carries and found the end zone not once, but twice, first on the ground and then through the air with 30 yards on two receptions. Mixon's return was huge for a lot of lineups this week.

On the flip side, under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, New York Giants' Tyrone Tracy Jr. was grinding it out with 17 carries for a hard-earned 50 yards and a touchdown. But Tracy wasn’t just a ground threat, he was catching passes out of the backfield too, snagging six receptions for an additional 57 yards. His versatile performance kept fantasy managers in the game, showcasing his ability to handle a full workload.

However, with Devin Singletary eyeing a return from his groin injury, the Giants' backfield is about to get as crowded as a New York subway at rush hour. Tracy's been holding down the fort, but we're likely heading into a timeshare situation where the carries and targets could get sliced up. For fantasy managers, it's time to stay sharp and monitor how this backfield shuffle plays out.

Some other backfield shake-ups include Tennessee Titans' Tyjae Spears, who pulled up with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for a while. This is massive, especially for those holding Tony Pollard, as these two had been splitting carries like they were divvying up a pizza. With Spears likely out, Pollard’s stock just shot up like a meme stock. Expect him to carry the load and give you that RB1 production we’ve all been waiting for.

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, we saw Chase Brown officially overtake Zack Moss for backfield duties, a move that could’ve been sped up by Moss suffering a high ankle sprain the previous week. High-ankle sprains are like that annoying friend who overstays their welcome and can tend to linger. So, while Brown’s ascent might’ve been nudged along by injury, he’s definitely taking advantage.

Keep an eye on Moss's recovery, but Brown is looking like the guy for the Bengals moving forward, and fantasy managers should be licking their chops at his upside.

Now, let’s talk about Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne. The hype train has officially hit a speed bump, with Etienne throwing up fantasy scores of 6.5, 9.0, and a gut-punching negative 0.1 points over the past few weeks. Yikes. It's clear he’s not at 100% health, and unless you’re into living dangerously, it’s time to bench him until he’s fully back.

We know Etienne’s got the talent, but right now, he’s giving off serious “can’t trust him” vibes, and you don’t want to be the person starting him while watching your team’s score plummet faster than a botched stock market trade.

 

The Latest Injury Updates

We should hopefully see Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane, and Malik Nabers back in action for Week 7, but please check out Dr. Deepak Chona's tweet below with all the rest of the injury information you need to know heading into Week 7, especially as it relates to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Christian McCaffrey.

 

Top Waiver Targets for Week 7

 

Conclusion

We are hitting that pivotal point in the 2024 NFL season and it's make-or-break time. The gloves are off, and playbooks are wide open, giving us a real look at what each team brings to the table. We're starting to see several offenses shine through for fantasy and it's hard not to feel good about every NFC North team moving forward. All are 4-2 or better. Sheesh!

Now, more than ever, you gotta stay sharp. Don't sleep on those waiver-wire gold mines that could flip your fantasy league upside down. As mentioned, we will be light on the byes for Week 7 with just the Bears and Cowboys out of action followed by no one on a bye in Week 8!

As always, I appreciate you diving into this week's fantasy insights with me. Keep swinging by for those nuggets of wisdom that could give you that slight edge over your league mates. Got questions? Need some strategy tips? Hit me up on X—let’s chat it out. Here’s hoping your fantasy lineup hits a winning streak!



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Congratulations on (mostly) making it through another injured-filled week as we push onto the heart of October. We saw plenty of standout performances from relatively unknown names, which is what waiver dreams are made of! Let's wade through it with our fantasy football waiver wire pickups lightning round heading into Week 7 of the 2024 […]


Video: MUST ADD Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 7! Fantasy Football 2024

Our top 2024 fantasy football Week 7 waiver wire pickups for RB, WR, TE, and QB. This week's must-add fantasy football free agents -- potential waiver wire winners heading into Week 7 for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks. Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) - every […]