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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting showdown in this one as we head to East Rutherford, New Jersey for the second consecutive evening as Josh Allen and the Bills (3-2) take on Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets (2-3). In a surprising move, the Jets moved on from head coach Robert Saleh early in the week. Jeff Ulbrich will take over that duty in the interim as the Jets look to right the ship against a divisional opponent. Let's see how this one plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets - $14.1K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 65 rushing attempts, 197 rushing yards, 28 targets, 21 receptions, 148 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -36.3%
All signs in this game are pointing to the under. What should be a gritty, "gut-it-out" matchup lends itself to taking stock in the running game on both sides of the ball despite matchups. It's been a quiet start to the campaign for Breece Hall, though not for lack of trying.
My model projects Hall to run for 68.51 yards on 13.75 carries, adding 40.46 receiving yards on 4.94 receptions, and 0.7 touchdowns. I think the bulk of Hall's work comes outside the tackles, particularly in the receiving game, as Buffalo ranks dead last in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills - $15.3K (DK), $14K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 70 rushing attempts, 309 rushing yards, 13 targets, 11 receptions, 123 rushing yards, and five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 1.00%
I'll look at James Cook next. If you told a Bills fan at the beginning of the 2023 season that in just a year the offense will [successfully] run through Cook, I'm sure all would sign up for it. This is not meant to be a knock on Josh Allen, of course, but Buffalo has seemingly found their offensive identity through a mix of running and passing.
My model projects Cook to run for 56.52 yards on 13.5 carries while adding 2.59 receptions and 16.72 receiving yards on 3.7 targets and 0.43 touchdowns. The Jets have been excellent in keeping running backs outside of the end zone so far this season, but I'm betting on James Cook to be the trend-breaker. He's finding the end zone not once, but twice in this one. There was some concern surrounding a toe injury with Cook this week, but he's in, as confirmed by Adam Schefter.
Bills Pro-Bowl RB James Cook will practice today despite his toe injury and plans to play Monday night vs. the Jets, per his agency LAA.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 12, 2024
Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Allen, Bills D/ST, Braelon Allen, Ray Davis
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DFS Flex Plays
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills - $11K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 945 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, 26 rushing attempts, 160 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 17.08%
I'll stay with Buffalo's offense for another minute and talk about Josh Allen. From a fantasy perspective, Allen has been very hit-or-miss to this point, with nearly two-thirds of his fantasy production coming in just two of his five games.
My model projects relatively average fantasy output from Allen, throwing for just 186.77 yards and 1.09 touchdowns while adding 30.35 yards and 0.31 touchdowns on the ground. I concur with my model and by no means expect a massive game out of Allen, but I think fantasy points will be scarcely shared and for that reason, I'll want Allen in a majority of my lineups.
Mike Williams - WR, New York Jets - $8.0K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 14 targets, 10 receptions, 145 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other WR': -20.00%
If we pay up for studs like Breece Hall, Josh Allen, and James Cook, we'll need to cut costs elsewhere in our lineups. I'll start with Mike Williams. Williams hasn't offered much to the Jets offense so far in 2024, but to his credit has been available when called upon.
My model projects Williams to bring in 3.4 receptions on 5.24 targets for 48.12 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. It isn't much, and it's not like he has a matchup to exploit, but I envision he'll do enough to get the job done at his price.
Other Flex Options: Dalton Kincaid, Garrett Wilson, Keon Coleman
DFS Value Plays
Buffalo Bills - D/ST, Buffalo Bills - $4.6K (DK), $8.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21.2 points per game allowed, 13 sacks, five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
I'll eat up some value with defense and special teams next, starting with the defense. Much like their quarterback, Buffalo's defense has had an up-and-down start to the season. However, they'll take on a Jets defense that has had more downs than ups. Occasionally, after firing a head coach teams tend to play up for the first game or two under their interim head coach. Given the seemingly unexpected nature of Robert Saleh's firing last week, I don't expect that to happen here.
Greg Zeurlein - K, New York Jets - $4.4K (DK), $9.0K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 6/8 field goals made/attempted, 9/9/ extra points made/attempted.
I'll wrap things up by discussing Greg Zuerlein, building off some of the points I made just a moment ago with the Bills defense. Given the nature of this game, and where the Bills tend to struggle, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be efficient enough throwing to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to work things into Buffalo territory. However, I bet that the buck will stop there, and should New York's defense tighten up the Bills' offense quietly, Zuerlein should see a handful of field goal attempts here.
Other Value Plays: Braelon Allen, Ray Davis, Tyler Bass, Curtis Samuel, Jets D/ST
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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