RADIO
It was another rough week in the RotoBaller Readers Group. Cjmclean17 is the only one who broke 40 points with 41. Only two more entries hit 35 points. I had an absolute disaster of a week with just 19 points. Ouch! Adding insult to injury is the fact that I got the 10-point pick right.
mr_richard takes over the group lead with 158 points. EAGLESYANKEES77 is four points back. big papi10 rounds out the top three with 153 points. IUBB1! starts the next pack with 148 points. 19ED41 is one point back with ertlt one point behind that. 50Centi and wpepper71 are tied for seventh with 145 points. 134 teams & not 1 good 1 and keepingthelittlehumansalive round out the top 10.
Thanks to a rough week for everyone, my nine points on Washington didn't hurt as much as it should have. I knew last week was going to be difficult. Week 5 looks a little bit easier on the surface. Let's get to it!
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Louisville over Notre Dame
The Irish do look different over the last couple of weeks, but that Louisville defense has been really good. It only allowed 98 rushing yards to Georgia Tech on 37 carries. Notre Dame's offensive renaissance has come via the run game.
Riley Leonard has just one passing touchdown on the season. Can Notre Dame win if it has to throw the ball more than it wants to? Until it can prove that, I'll take teams against it that are similar in talent.
(2) Alabama over Georgia
We all know how good Georgia has been for the last five years or so, but it has only beaten the Tide once in that span. Its only win against the Tide in the last nine meetings was the national championship in 2012. This game is in Tuscaloosa. Until Georgia proves that it can get past the Tide, I'm "rolling" with Alabama.
(3) Liberty over Appalachian State
This one might get moved down. Kaidon Salter is the best player on either team, but App State has played a significantly tougher schedule. Both Clemson and South Alabama trashed the Mountaineers. Liberty handled East Carolina better, but App State played it in Greenville.
I tend to think that these two teams are closer than the public thinks. App State is only +135 on the moneyline in Vegas. That suggests a closer game than the 89% of the public on Liberty. I want to take App State here, but if I do that, I'm moving it further down the list. Stay tuned. I'm struggling a bit with this one.
(4) Arkansas over Texas A&M
Conner Weigman is still listed as QB1 on the most recent depth chart, but head coach Mike Elko says that he is still a game-time decision for the game with a sprained AC joint. Those kinds of injuries can be tricky, but it's also easier for the Aggies to play it safe with Weigman thanks to the play of Marcel Reed.
The freshman has played well with Weigman out. So well that many Aggie fans are ready to move on from the often-injured and often-ineffective Weigman. If Reed starts this game and leads the Aggies to a win, we may have our first high-profile transfer portal entry of 2024.
That said, Reed playing well against Florida and Bowling Green is a little different than doing so against an Arkansas defense that has been better than advertised. I might move this down if Reed starts and changes the pick. If Weigman is in, I like the Hogs.
(5) Kansas State over Oklahoma State
After seeing what happened to K-State in Provo, I see OSU winning in the Little Apple despite the public (and Vegas) being on K-State. BYU provided the blueprint for how to fluster Avery Johnson. I do think the BYU game spiraled out of control in part because of the crowd, which OSU won't have the advantage of.
The problem is the run defense of Oklahoma State. Micah Bernard trashed the Pokes on the ground as Utah eased Isaac Wilson into the starter role. Avery Johnson has some starting experience, but the Wildcats have two really good backs, Dylan Edwards and DJ Giddens. They will run them both at the Cowboys for the win.
(6) UNLV over Fresno State
UNLV's defense has done a terrific job so far this year, but there is a good chance that Mikey Keene is the best quarterback it has faced so far. Jalon Daniels is not who he used to be, and it has nothing to do with physical traits.
UNLV is fourth in the country and first among the G5 in third down defense. Rebels opponents have converted on 8 of 40 third downs thus far (20%).
?Lucas Peltier/@unlvfootball pic.twitter.com/PfYU0f8bMA
— Colton Pool (@CPoolReporter) September 17, 2024
The Rebels held Donovan Smith and Houston to 209 yards passing and picked him off twice. They only allowed 153 passing yards to Daniels and also picked him off twice. I was hoping the public would be a little more heavy on Fresno. I guess beating two Big 12 (14) teams on the road gets you some national recognition now.
(7) BYU over Baylor
Sawyer Robertson is the right choice for Baylor if for no other reason than it finally gets Monaray Baldwin involved in the offense. That said, Baylor couldn't even abuse that Colorado defense. BYU locked down a good Kansas State team. This is an opportunistic defense that can make offenses spiral out of control in a matter of minutes. Robertson can't handle that yet.
(8) Oklahoma over Auburn
ICYMI:
Jackson Arnold won’t start for Oklahoma next week. The Sooners have made the change to Michael Hawkins Jr.— cfb_guy (@cfb_guy1) September 24, 2024
I support this decision. Hawkins looked really good against a strong Tennessee defense. He'll have some issues as all freshmen do, but he gives us the best chance to win this game. Auburn holds no advantage at QB since Hunter Brown is also a freshman. I give a big advantage to the Oklahoma defense.
Auburn has the better run game, but that is also the strength of the Oklahoma defense. Even Tennessee struggled to get traction in the run game for much of the night last week. I do expect a close game, but the dynamic of Hawkins in the lineup is going to reap immediate rewards.
(9) Boise State over Washington State
Washington State has looked pretty good for a team without a conference home. The bad news for the Cougs is that the NCAA folks will treat them as a Notre Dame independent team instead of a "conference champion." What that does is essentially turn this game into a playoff game.
Washington State needs this feather. Boise could lose and still be the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. The Cougars would likely need to win out and hope the committee lets them in. This is the byproduct of the last great moronic decision of the former Pac-12.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is having a year incase anyone didn’t notice#BoiseState #Heisman pic.twitter.com/kZWBfFeqve
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) September 22, 2024
For that reason, part of me thinks Washington State will come out and win this game. Then I remembered that Ashton Jeanty plays for Boise and Boise wants him in New York at the Heisman Trophy ceremony for obvious reasons. Wazzu has allowed nearly five yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns in four games. Jeanty will make the difference for Boise.
(10) Duke over North Carolina
North Carolina allowed 53 first-half points to James Madison. Maalik Murphy could have the game of his life in this one...
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