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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun Sunday Night Football matchup here, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (2-0) head to Atlanta to take on Kirk Cousins and the Falcons (1-1). The Chiefs will look to navigate the next few weeks without their star running back, Isaiah Pacheco, while the Falcons will look to build on their improbable win against Philadelphia last Monday.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Falcons Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on September 22. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Bijan Robinson - RB, $15,900 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024: 32 rushing attempts, 165 rushing yards, 10 targets, nine receptions, 68 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -2.51%
I'll start things off on this slate with Bijan Robinson. Bijan had a solid game against the Eagles on Monday night and will look to keep the momentum going with strong back-to-back prime-time performances. The only "knock" on Bijan in this early season stage is that he hasn't found the end zone yet. I think that changes tonight, though the Chiefs have only allowed one touchdown to running backs in their first two games.
Bijan Robinson is poised to break off big runs against the Chiefs run defense 👀
Robinson ranks 5th among RBs in explosive runs, and he'll be going up against a 29th ranked Kansas City run defense in this matchup. pic.twitter.com/JYYh6HszJR
— PFF ATL Falcons (@PFF_Falcons) September 21, 2024
My model projects Bijan to run for 68.79 yards on 15.5 rushing attempts, adding 3.61 receptions for 28.72 yards on 5.33 targets, and 0.59 touchdowns against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Travis Kelce - TE, $12,300 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024: Seven targets, four receptions, 39 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -0.1%
I'll flip the field and look at Travis Kelce as my second 1.5x option of the showdown. We can call this "buying the dip" on Kelce, whose pricing on both sites is lower than I can ever remember them being. Kelce has had a quiet start to the 2024 campaign, and I'm sure things will improve as the season continues. It seems to be this way every year with the Chiefs, and I find this situation to be no different.
My model projects Kelce to grab 5.3 of his 7.19 targets, totaling 56.41 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. I may just place a wager on his anytime touchdown prop, as I find it unthinkable that he remains out of the endzone for yet another week, especially with star running back Isiah Pacheco on the sidelines for the time being.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Samaje Perine
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $10,000 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024: 442 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, three interceptions, six rushing attempts, 32 rushing yards.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 33.95%
It's been a slow start to the 2024 campaign for the back-to-back Super Bowl MVP. In fairness to Mahomes, this seems to be a common trend, and he begins to pick it up in weeks three and four en route to some hardware at the end of the season. I think there is a chance that Mahomes starts off the game a bit slow against this Falcons defense, without Pacheco in the backfield. However, as mentioned when talking about Travis Kelce, I anticipate that connection heating up tonight.
My model projects Mahomes to throw for 268.09 passing yards and 1.93 touchdowns while adding 24.25 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on the ground. He's my third option in the 1.5x spot on DraftKings, but I will have a bit more exposure at MVP on FanDuel.
Rashee Rice - WR, $9,600 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 15 targets, 12 receptions, 178 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 5.88%
If I run Mahomes at MVP on FanDuel, I'll want to stack him with two pass-catchers. While this particular stack is expensive, it could pay huge dividends. Rice has been Mahomes's favorite target through the first two weeks, and while it's likely he'll be shadowed by A.J. Terrell for a portion of the game, that doesn't concern me (with all due respect to A.J. Terrell). Rice was primed for a breakout before the start of the season, and I don't think that momentum will stop anytime soon.
My model projects Rice to catch 6.59 of his 9.19 targets for 68.21 yards and 0.45 touchdowns. The 9.19 targets is enough for me to justify playing him in this spot, and I will be. A lot.
Other Flex Options: Xavier Worthy, Kirk Cousins, Drake London
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Carson Steele - RB, $6,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Nine rushing attempts, 27 rushing yards, one fumble.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -11.97%
I'll start things off with a pseudo-value guy in Carson Steele. Steele hasn't been much of a factor in Kansas City's first two games of the season, but they have run out of options in the backfield early on this season with both Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the shelf.
My model projects Steele to tote the rock 10.46 times for 49.44 yards and 0.41 touchdowns while adding a reception on 1.63 targets for 8.07 yards. Steele is projected to get the "first chance" at the starting role, but given Andy Reid's history of usage in the running back room, who knows? I'll have a 50/50 split of Steele and Samaje Perine in this one.
Ray-Ray McCloud - WR, $3,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 12 targets, seven receptions, 94 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. 'Other WR': -26.15%
I'll wrap things up with the guy I wrapped up my Monday Night Football lineup with last week, Ray-Ray McCloud. McCloud had a quieter game last week than in Week 1, catching three of his five targets for 42 yards. However, even five targets for a guy at this price is a steal on a showdown slate, particularly on a Chiefs' slate where you want to pay up for studs.
My model projects McCloud to regress this week, catching just 2.37 of 4.58 targets for 24.69 yards and 0.16 touchdowns. It's not necessarily a favorable matchup, but it appears McCloud is a safety blanket for Kirk Cousins in the short and intermediate field.
Other Value Options: Samaje Perine, Tyler Allegier, Younghoe Koo, Chiefs D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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