RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have what could be a very fun showdown this week as two 22-year-old quarterbacks and, potentially, two of the best wide receiver trios take the field as Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears (1-0) head south to take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (1-0). Both of these fanbases have placed a lot of expectation on their respective teams this season, and even if you're not a fan of either of these teams, sit back and enjoy the show.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs. Texans Sunday night NFL DFS showdown slate on September 15. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
C.J. Stroud - QB, $14,700 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 234 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, four rushing attempts, 13 rushing yards.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 17.38%
I can't make a huge note about the two quarterbacks in the intro and not play at least one of them here. Stroud came onto the scene in 2023, having one of the greatest rookie seasons at the quarterback position ever.
Stroud put on a modest performance in Week 1 against the Colts but found his newly-acquired target Stefon Diggs in the end zone twice. Now, he'll play in front of his home fans for the first time since his illustrious playoff performance against Cleveland in the Wild Card Round.
My model has Stroud as the highest-projected player in this matchup, going for 271.81 passing yards and 2.04 passing touchdowns to 0.86 interceptions while adding 10.6 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns to his projection. He's the most expensive player on the slate, but I think the price is worth it.
C.J. Stroud on 3rd/4th down in Week 1:
🎯 9/9
🎯 85 yards
🎯 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/yLi6qa74sU— PFF (@PFF) September 9, 2024
Tank Dell - WR, $11,100 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: Seven targets, three receptions, 40 receiving yards, two rushing attempts, 19 rushing yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: 10.49%
I'll pivot to one of Stroud's wide receivers for my second play of the night. From a showdown standpoint, choosing between this trio of Houston receivers weekly will be difficult.
We have some edge here with Tank Dell, who draws the most advantageous matchup of the three. In 2023, the Bears struggled against third and fourth wide receivers, while being relatively solid against the ones and twos.
I have each of these three guys projected rather similarly, with Dell being the best "value" of the three. He projects to 4.42 receptions on 6.61 targets for 59.91 receiving yards and 0.38 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Mixon - RB, $10,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 30 rushing attempts, 159 rushing yards, three targets, three receptions, 19 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -30.54%
I don't want to say I'm ignoring the negative matchup here, as I don't necessarily love Mixon as a 1.5x play in this game, but I'm using this as a "safeguard".
I envision this matchup as being all Texans, and given Mixon's ridiculous usage in Week 1 gives me optimism for his outlook for the rest of this season. These two things combined elevate the floor for Mixon in this showdown, I'm just not sure if he can reach his ceiling given the poor projected DVOA.
My model projects Mixon to run the ball for 67.86 yards on 16.35 carries while adding 3.61 receptions on 4.84 targets for 30.88 yards and 0.66 total touchdowns.
#Texans OC Bobby Slowik on whether Joe Mixon can sustain his bellcow workload from Week 1:
“Physically, I’d say, he’s probably one of the few guys remaining in the NFL that could handle that… He’s just built and, has in his past, done that before and is built to do that. It… pic.twitter.com/lhAqgoES0S
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 12, 2024
D.J. Moore - WR, $9,000 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: Eight targets, five receptions, 36 receiving yards, one rushing attempt, 14 rushing yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 19.57%
I'll flip the field and look at the first Chicago Bear of the showdown in the form of wide receiver D.J. Moore. There are question marks surrounding the Bears' wide receiver room for this showdown as Keenan Allen missed practice on Friday, while Rome Odunze was a limited participant.
Regardless of Allen and Odunze's availability - both are questionable as of the time I'm writing this article - Moore still comes away with the best matchup in the room. Moore was second in targets last Sunday, logging eight while Keenan Allen logged 11. Moore was a bit more efficient with his opportunities, though.
My model projects Moore to grab 4.57 of his 8.05 targets for 69.41 yards and 0.34 touchdowns. This projection assumes that both Allen and Odunze are in, so there is a chance that these numbers increase as we get closer to Sunday Night Football.
Other Flex Options: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Caleb Williams
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dalton Schultz - TE, $5,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: Three targets, three receptions, 16 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -17.12%
When it comes to value plays, I'll start things off with Dalton Schultz. Schultz was relegated to what would effectively be the fifth option in this high-powered Houston offense following the off-season additions of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs.
The matchup here in terms of DVOA leaves a lot to be desired, but it is worth noting that Chicago ranked 28th in both targets and receptions per game last season. My model projects Schultz to catch 3.15 of his 4.04 targets for 29.22 receiving yards and 0.23 touchdowns in this one.
Houston Texans - D/ST, $4,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 27 points allowed, two sacks, one interception.
I'll wrap things up with the Texans' defense. I mentioned earlier that I believe this game ends up being all Houston and I'll be having quite a few Texans-heavy lineups.
Shane Steichen, Anthony Richardson, and the Colts had a very solid 27-point performance against this Houston defense last week. However, that was on the road, and now Demeco Ryan's unit will have the home crowd at their back, roaring in excitement in what is likely the most anticipated Texans season in their history.
I mentioned earlier that there are a lot of questions surrounding the health of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze ahead of this showdown, causing concern for the Chicago passing game. Despite the 27 points allowed last week, Houston's defense kept Jonathan Taylor to just 3.0 yards per carry. This leads me to believe they will limit D'Andre Swift and force Caleb Williams to do more than he's comfortable with in just his second career start.
Other Value Options: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Cairo Santos, Dameon Pierce
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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