RADIO
Week 1 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the first week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 1. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?
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Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1 stats: 24-of-30, 289 yards, four touchdowns - overall QB2
Last season, former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield had his best NFL season, making his first Pro Bowl and throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first year with the Buccaneers. There were plenty of questions about whether or not Mayfield could follow that up.
It's been just one game, but Mayfield looked just as sharp in Week 1 as he did in 2023, going 24-of-30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 victory over the Washington Commanders.
But here's the issue: the Commanders defense is really bad. Mayfield delivering four touchdowns against Washington is impressive, but we have to account for the fact that a lot of quarterbacks will have big games against this defense all season long.
Still, Mayfield gets to throw passes to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin every week, so this wasn't just about the defense he was facing. He'll have some more strong showings this season, though we might not see another four-touchdown performance.
Verdict: The matchup helped here, but Mayfield should have a solid 2024. Fact-ish.
Jordan Mason - RB, San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 stats: 28 carries, 147 yards, one touchdown - overall RB3
On Monday night, we got news before the 49ers/Jets game that Christian McCaffrey wouldn't play. There was a lot of scrambling among fantasy managers as they raced to find someone to throw in there. The ones who were able to put Jordan Mason in came out ahead after the third-year back rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown.
Looking back over the film from the game, Mason was just beasting it up the middle. He hit the holes hard, absorbed contact, and made positive play after positive play.
The rest of the country gets to see what we’ve known about Jordan Mason for what feels like his 2 years now
— Niners Nation (@NinersNation) September 10, 2024
And that's something he should be able to do if McCaffrey misses any more games. This 49ers system creates open running lanes for its running backs and Mason's physicality will lead to more strong showings. He's a high-end RB2 at worst as long as McCaffrey's Achilles tendinitis keeps him off the field.
Verdict: Fact, at least if McCaffrey misses more time.
Jayden Reed - WR, Green Bay Packers
Week 1 stats: four receptions, six targets, 138 yards, one receiving touchdown, 33 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown - overall WR1
Christian Watson? Romeo Doubs? Nope, it was Jayden Reed who was the star of the game against the Eagles on Friday night. He caught four of his six targets for 138 yards and a touchdown. He also added a 33-yard touchdown run.
Reed finished this game second on the team in targets, one back of Doubs and one ahead of Watson. He played 72% of the team's offensive snaps, which ranked second to only Doubs among the team's receivers.
That was the good. The bad is that Jordan Love's injury introduces a lot of short-term volatility to this situation. As long as the Packers are starting Malik Willis, you can't trust the receivers in Green Bay.
What about once Love is back? Reed gets a big boost then, but he's still part of a complicated wide receiver room. Reed has the best chance to break out of any of them and Week 1 was strong evidence for that, but don't expect him to deliver top-10 numbers every week.
Verdict: Little bit of fact, a little bit of fiction
Allen Lazard - WR, New York Jets
Week 1 stats: six receptions, nine targets, 89 receiving yards, two touchdowns - overall WR3
Allen Lazard was an afterthought coming into the year. Garrett Wilson was the clear No. 1 receiver for the Jets and there was an opening for the No. 2 role. Lazard wasn't expected to be in contention for that role, though, with Mike Williams and Malachi Corley the most likely candidates for it.
Top 12 Expected Fantasy Point Leaders Week 1 (WR)
1) Cooper Kupp had an okay day
2) Some big time underperformers - Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, and Amari Cooper
4) ...allen lazard.... pic.twitter.com/tjlkGxaMI5
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) September 10, 2024
But Lazard's familiarity with Aaron Rodgers paid off in the Week 1 loss to the 49ers. The former Iowa State wideout caught six of his nine targets for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though the second score came after the team put Tyrod Taylor under center.
Overall, Lazard was one of just two Jets wide receivers to even be targeted in this game. Wilson saw 11 targets while the others all went to running backs and tight end Tyler Conklin.
Lazard also played every snap for the team. Xavier Gipson played 59% of the snaps while Mike Williams played 18% and Corley played just a single offensive snap. It's safe to say Lazard is the No. 2 receiver in New York.
It's also safe to say that he's not scoring two touchdowns every week. He's a must-add in 14-team leagues and a suggested add in 12-team leagues, but there's a very good chance that Week 1 was the high point of his season.
Verdict: Fiction, but there's some value here
Foster Moreau - TE, New Orleans Saints
Week 1 stats: four receptions, four targets, 43 yards, one touchdown - overall TE2
I'm barely going to talk about Foster Moreau here. He had a strong Week 1, catching all four of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown, but that was aided by the fact that the Saints played the Panthers. They won't play the Panthers every week, though Moreau will be a great streaming play the next time they meet.
Instead, I just want to talk about how bad tight ends were this week. In half PPR, just three tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points. Of the top five players at the position this week, two played for the Saints.
I don't think this is going to be a season where every tight end is bad each week, but Moreau highlights something that might end up being important: matchups matter. Players who are barely on the fantasy radar can be streaming plays if the matchups are good. Remember that.
But as far as Moreau goes, I don't anticipate this changing anything about his fantasy value.
Verdict: Fiction
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