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The Zero RB draft strategy has become very popular in recent years. It applies mainly to full PPR leagues and those where you can start three or more wide receivers. The idea is that you build a strong enough advantage at other positions (mainly wide receiver) to offset your weakness at running back. Part of this strategy also involves drafting undervalued running backs later in drafts and aggressively playing the waiver wire.
With running backs being pushed further down draft boards, it does make Zero RB a very appealing strategy. But which running backs are ideal Zero RB targets? Today, we will examine three undervalued backs to consider if you take a Zero RB approach.
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Brian Robinson Jr. - Washington Commanders
Robinson and free-agent addition Austin Ekeler are currently expected to split touches in Washington’s backfield. Despite this, Ekeler is the preferred option among gamers on some platforms. This is happening despite Robinson finishing higher than Ekeler in the following metrics:
- Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s EXP Run %
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT).
- Pro Football Focus's (PFF) Rushing Grade
- PFF’s Elusive Rating
So, we are drafting a 29-year-old back, coming off the worst year of his career, whose metrics all signal he’s in decline, over a 25-year-old back coming off his best season as a professional? What are we doing here?
Ekeler traditionally has been a great pass-catching back, but he wasn’t better than Robinson in that area either last year.
Ekeler:
8.5 yards per reception
5.9 yards per target
1.40 YPRR
1 receiving touchdown
Robinson:
10.2 yards per reception
8.6 yards per target
1.89 YPRR
4 receiving touchdowns
No, this does not suggest Robinson is going to morph into an elite pass-catching back. That’s just not his skill set. But it does mean these backs might not be that different as pass-catchers in terms of potential fantasy production.
There is no good reason to draft Ekeler over Robinson other than name value. Robinson is not a perfect back, but he’s not terrible, either. He is Washington’s best option at the moment. Robinson could also see a boost in efficiency playing alongside dual-threat rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Fresh off a PPR RB21 finish, Robinson is a very solid Zero RB draft pick.
Javonte Williams - Denver Broncos
Williams is coming off a disappointing 2023 season. He had a career-low 3.6 yards per carry and graded poorly in several running back metrics. In fairness, Williams was coming off a devastating knee injury. He is now two years removed from this injury, and we’ve heard nothing but rave reviews from Broncos camp.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Javonte Williams:
“He’s lost weight, he looks trim. I thought he looked sharp today, he looked much different. His weight’s down and I’m proud of him.” pic.twitter.com/jOrxrjGNSe
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 25, 2024
Sean Payton said he watched Javonte Williams' @UNCFootball film and told him, "This is the back I want," and asked, "What did you weigh here?"
"He knew he wanted to get to (his) '21, '20 (weight)," Payton said. A slimmed-down Williams was explosive and quick today. pic.twitter.com/MbssD3PHgm
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) July 24, 2024
While Williams had a poor 2023, he graded out well in several metrics as a rookie in 2021. Among 52 running backs with 90+ carries, Williams finished:
-4th in Missed Tackles Forced, per Fantasy Points Data Suite
- 5th in PFF Elusive Rating
- 7th in YACO/ATT
- 15th in PFF Explosive Run Percentage
- 18th in RYOE
Williams looked like a stud before his 2022 knee injury. It shouldn’t be that surprising he struggled in 2023 as it typically takes running backs over a year to return to their pre-injury form. Now that he’s further removed from his injury, Williams might be in line for a bounce-back season.
Any risk is sufficiently baked into his current FFPC ADP of 106.32 overall. Running backs have always provided fantasy value in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. Williams will be a nice value in drafts as long as he maintains the RB1 role. He is an ideal pick for managers who take a Zero RB approach.
Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers
Warren is coming off a strong season which saw him finish as the PPR RB22 despite splitting touches with fellow rusher Najee Harris. Last year, among running backs with at least 100 carries, Warren ranked first in MTF/ATT. He also finished fourth in RYOE.
Jaylen Warren 74 yards versus Browns #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/ybo10ukV0W
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) July 4, 2024
The Steelers have declined Harris’s fifth-year option. This might indicate that he has fallen out of favor with the team. Warren outperformed Harris in a variety of metrics in 2023. He also has a career 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) compared to Harris’s 3.9.
At this point, it seems clear that Warren is the better back. It may only be a matter of time before Warren completely takes over this backfield and emerges as the preferred fantasy play.
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