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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of my 2024 fantasy baseball start/sit article for Week 21, August 12 - August 18. This week's article will focus on Zach Neto, Luis Garcia Jr., Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Spencer Schwellenbach, Nick Lodolo, David Festa, and Hayden Birdsong.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare up to four players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, the current week, next week, or the rest of the season.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, August 12 - August 18!
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Fantasy Baseball Surging Middle Infielders
Zach Neto (SS) vs. Luis Garcia Jr. (2B)
Our first comparison is between two young middle infielders who have been hot in the second half of the season. Zach Neto has busted out after a mediocre first half, slashing .318/.430/.576 with six stolen bases in 66 at-bats. Luis Garcia Jr. has put together a solid season overall and has been even better in the second half, slashing .355/.403/.565 with seven stolen bases in 62 at-bats. Which player has a better chance of staying hot?
RotoBaller gives Garcia Jr. a slight recommendation for Sunday. The two will face each other in a pretty equal matchup. Neto has a slight projection advantage in all counting stats, but Garcia Jr. has a clear projection advantage in batting average and a slight advantage in slugging percentage.
Looking to Week 22, the Angels will face tougher matchups with three games against the Blue Jays and three against the Braves. The Nationals will also face tough matchups, with three games at the Orioles and three at the Phillies. The Angels are slated to face one lefty and the Nationals are slated to face two. This favors Garcis Jr., who has hit all pitchers well, while Neto has struggled against righties.
Both players have provided high fantasy floors lately. They will face tough matchups, but the projected pitchers favor Garcia Jr. I will go with Garcia Jr. for Week 22 given the matchups and the fact that he has been more consistent all season.
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Outfielder Jacksons
Jackson Chourio (OF) vs. Jackson Merrill (SS/OF)
Our next comparison is between two outfield-eligible rookies who have provided plenty of fantasy value. Jackson Chourio came into the season as a top prospect and has acted like it in the second half, slashing .392/.423/.635 in 74 at-bats. Jackson Merrill has been consistent all season, slashing .293/.324/.480 with 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 429 plate appearances. Which Jackson will reign supreme?
Chourio gets a strong recommendation for Sunday. Chourio will face a tougher matchup on paper. He draws a projection advantage in counting stats. However, Merrill draws clear projection advantages in batting average and slugging percentage. This may be closer than projected, with both players being decent plays.
The Brewers will face tough matchups in Week 22, with four games against the Dodgers and three against the Guardians. The Padres will draw excellent matchups, with three games against the back of the Pirates rotation and three at the Rockies. The Padres are scheduled to face two lefties, which hurts Merrill.
Merrill has been more consistent throughout the season and may offer a higher floor for the rest of the season. However, he will face two lefties this week and Chourio has been absolutely on fire at the plate. Therefore, I will give the nod to Chourio for Week 22.
Fantasy Baseball Surging Streamer vs. Struggling Starter
Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Nick Lodolo
Our next comparison is between two starters, one of whom has had a great second half while the other has struggled. Spencer Schwellenbach's season numbers have been fine, but his 3.15 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 38.7% strikeout rate in three second-half starts have been outstanding. Nick Lodolo's season numbers have been decent, but his 5.84 ERA in four second-half starts leaves a lot to be desired. Which pitcher is a better fantasy bet in the coming weeks?
RotoBaller gives Schwellenbach a recommendation for Sunday. This is interesting, as Schwellenbach will face a tough matchup in Coors Field. The counting stat projections are pretty even, but Schwellenbach has clear projection advantages in ERA and WHIP. I think this will be more of a coin toss than projected given the tough road environment for Schwellenbach, but the projections do go his way.
Scchwellenbach will draw a middling matchup against the Nationals in his next start. Lodolo will draw a favorable matchup on the road against the Pirates. Given how late we are in the season, my choice for Week 22 may be swayed by how the pitchers perform on Sunday. However, while Lodolo hasn't been as good lately, he does have a longer track record than Schwellenbach, so I will give the edge to Lodolo.
Fantasy Baseball Rookies
David Festa vs. Hayden Birdsong
Our final comparison is between two young fantasy pitchers who could help fantasy managers. David Festa has turned in three consecutive decent starts for the Twins. Hayden Birdsong turned in five consecutive useful starts before his last. Both players could help fantasy managers down the stretch, but which one has a better chance?
RotoBaller gives Birdsong a strong recommendation for Sunday. Festa will face a tough matchup against the Guardians, while Birdsong will draw a favorable matchup against the Tigers. Consequently, Birdsong has considerable projection advantages in wins, strikeouts, and ERA.
Festa is currently slated for a middling Week 22 matchup at home against the Cardinals, while Birdsong will get a favorable matchup at the Mariners. Both are relative risks given their small sample sizes. However, Birdsong has put together more encouraging starts and draws a better matchup, so he gets the Week 22 edge.
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