Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Wyndham Championship
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Wyndham Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Cuts
Top 20 Entrants: 3
Last Five Winners of the Wyndham Championship
2023 | Lucas Glover | -20 |
2022 | Tom Kim | -20 |
2021 | Kevin Kisner | -15 |
2019 | Jim Herman | -21 |
2018 | J.T. Poston | -22 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Wyndham Championship
(No cut this week)
2023 | -1 |
2022 | 0 |
2021 | -2 |
2019 | -2 |
2018 | -3 |
Sedgefield Country Club
7,127 Yards - Par 70 - Bermuda
I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
Stat | Sedgefield | PGA Average |
Driving Distance | 281 | 283 |
Driving Accuracy | 61% | 62% |
GIR Percentage | &2% | 65% |
Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.68 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total - Recent Form (Geared Toward Wyndham) (10%)
Strokes Gained Total Under 7,200 Yards (10%)
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total Easy Scoring + Bermuda Scoring (10%)
Comp Courses (10%)
Weighted Scoring (10%)
Donald Ross (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
Player | Price |
Sungjae Im | 17 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 45 |
Brian Harman | 40 |
Eric Cole | 70 |
Ben Silverman | 175 |
Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories
Very short list this week. I am interested to see where ownership lands for a handful of these choices since the safety marks are substantially lower than the upside. I always like large-field targets that fit the mold.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
Sungjae Im ranked first in my model over his past 10 starts in 'Weighted Form,' posting five top 12 finishes since the Memorial. We also got a "Course History" mark that provided an average finish on the leaderboard of 11th through his last five appearances at Sedgefield and a 'Statistical Total' that saw him in the top 10 of all seven categories I weighed.
I don't believe the narrative of players coming overseas from the Olympics and playing this event is as prominent as some people will tell you in the space. However, it doesn't hurt that Im will be fresh after not playing since we know that the travel answer has affected him in the past.
I'd expect Sungjae to carry a great deal of ownership because of his top-end grade in all areas of the board, but it is hard to ignore him at what looks to be a reduced price tag.
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
This section has a ton of name recognition that will carry ownership, but my preferred target would be Brian Harman. I know... what a shocker to everyone who follows me.
I felt as if this was the first week in a while that I had some massive deviations compared to the market when diving into proper pricing on the board,
Harman has left much to be desired over his past two attempts at the property, posing a missed cut and 71st-place result. Still, his second-place output for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, first for Projected Strokes Gained at Easy Courses and second when comparing this course to other venues, was what I wanted to see for a golfer to reach his maximum potential.
Like Sungjae, I am sure it will come with some popularity, but we can cross that bridge when more information enters the market.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
When I am lower on the $9,000 section, it is natural that much of the value pushes into the $8,000s or upper $7,000 range.
Aaron Rai is going to be the most popular option and will likely rival anyone outside of Sungjae Im for the top-owned return on the slate. However, the flip of that answer will come into play when we talk about Christiaan Bezuidenhout. (Keegan Bradley also).
You can add any of the positive values within my model (upside rank included), but what I liked most about Bezuidenhout is that most people will bypass playing him after traveling from the Olympics to this week's event.
The South African ranked first in my model for Weighted Strokes Gained Total because of his top-50 grades across the board for all four categories, including a short-game output that placed behind only Brendon Todd, Mackenzie Hughes, Denny McCarthy and Maverick McNealy.
Can the driver and irons be good enough for him to win? That remains to be seen, but the fact that he ranked 10th in recent strokes gained data and sixth for similar courses was an encouraging sign that the market may have opened up too low on him Monday morning.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
This section offers tons of value. As I said a second ago, this is what happens when you lack value in the areas above.
There is probably a better contrarian route to discuss than something that is going to render popularity, but I have convinced myself that Eric Cole is the third favorite to win this golf event (behind Sungjae Im and Brian Harman).
Cole has been a massive disappointment in 2024 after an amazing 2023 season that won him Rookie of the Year. That has left most gamers hesitant until recently to jump back into the fray. However, my model has started coming back around to him after ranking fourth for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, seventh when faced with a Donald Ross venue and 17th for Expected Proximity.
I know that 17th place rank might not sound overly encouraging, but it is attached to a 54th-place expectation elsewhere, yielding a 135th-place GIR mark when not faced with Sedgefield Country Club.
If those irons can succeed here, his increase to 43rd for Fairways Gained at similar courses does the same for his ball-striking answers.
Cole is worth a shot at 70/1 in the outright market.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Ben Silverman has quietly made eight cuts in a row, producing seven of those finishes inside the top 40 of the field.
I thought Silverman was the most mispriced option on the board in this $6,000 range.
Here were the top five:
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Sungjae Im
$9,000+ - Brian Harman
$8,000+ - Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$7,000+ - Eric Cole
$6,000+ - Ben Silverman
Fade In Each Section (Wednesday):
I will update this when ownership shows up in 24-48 hours
$10,000+ -
$9,000+ -
$8,000+ -
$7,000+ -
$6,000+ -
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