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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of my 2024 fantasy baseball start/sit article for Week 17, July 15 - July 21. This week's article will focus on Joey Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, Cal Raleigh, Ben Rice, Dean Kremer, Ryan Pepiot, Brady Singer, and Jake Irvin. A reminder that All-Star festivities will take place this week, with regular-season games resuming on Friday, July 19.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare up to four players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, the current week, next week, or the rest of the season.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, July 15 - July 21!
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Fantasy Baseball Returning Infielders
Joey Ortiz (2B/3B) vs. Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS)
Our first comparison is between two fantasy-relevant players who have been dealing with injuries but are now back with their teams. Joey Ortiz recently returned from the injured list due to neck inflammation and has put together a solid season, slashing .264/.367/.436 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 260 plate appearances. Xander Bogaerts is now back after recovering from a left elbow fracture, and while he hasn't produced this season, he has been a fantasy staple throughout his career. Which player should fantasy managers be more excited to have back?
RotoBaller gives Bogaerts a strong recommendation for Sunday. Bogaerts draws a tougher matchup, and Ortiz has projection advantages in batting average and slugging percentage. However, Bogaerts has projection advantages in runs scored and RBI. I think this matchup is closer than projected, especially because the Brewers' offense has outperformed the Padres' overall lately.
Looking to post All-Star break, the Brewers will draw two games at the Twins, while the Padres will face a tough series at the Guardians. Bogaerts has a higher fantasy ceiling, but he will need to prove that he is healthy enough to return to his productive ways before trusting him. Ortiz may not have the career track record of Bogaerts, but I will give him the Week 17 nod due to his production this season.
Fantasy Baseball Slugging Catchers
Cal Raleigh vs. Ben Rice (C/1B)
Our next comparison is between two catcher-eligible players who have been mashing lately. Cal Raleigh has been on fire at the plate in July, batting .325 with six HR in 45 plate appearances. Ben Rice has made good on his power promise since being called up by the Yankees, slugging .500 with five HR in 82 plate appearances. Which catcher has a better chance of continuing their power surge?
Raleigh gets a strong recommendation for Sunday. Both players will face decent matchups and have similar projections in runs scored and HR. Rice has a projection advantage in batting average, but Raleigh has projection advantages in RBI and slugging percentage, tilting the scales in his favor.
Both teams will face middling Week 17 matchups, with the Mariners getting three games against the Astros and the Yankees getting three games against the Rays. Both players profile similarly, with Raleigh offering higher power potential and Rice offering a better batting average. Raleigh has been hot lately but offers more downside than Rice. As such, I will play the hot hand with Raleigh in points leagues and will be more conservative by going with Rice in roto leagues.
Fantasy Baseball Questionable Streamers
Dean Kremer vs. Ryan Pepiot
Our next comparison is between two starters who have provided mixed results this season. Dean Kremer missed some time due to injury but has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 24.0% strikeout rate in 11 starts and 59 innings pitched. Ryan Pepiot has been fine in his first full season as a starter, posting a 4.20 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 27.2% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 81 1/3 IP. Which pitcher offers more fantasy upside heading into the All-Star break?
RotoBaller gives Pepiot a strong recommendation for Sunday. Both players will face tough matchups. Kremer has projection advantages in wins and strikeouts, while Pepiot has a projection advantage in ERA. It seems interesting that Pepiot received a strong recommendation given the projections, as this matchup seems like a coin toss.
For second-half preference, Kremer pitches for a better team, but his ERA estimators are all over the place, while Pepiot's are all lower than his ERA. Pepiot also has produced better strikeout numbers than Kremer. I would consider both to be back-of-the-rotation fantasy options at best, but I prefer Pepiot overall.
Fantasy Surprisingly Strong Starters
Brady Singer vs. Jake Irvin
Our final comparison is between two pitchers who have provided surprising fantasy value this season. Brady Singer has looked like the former fantasy prospect he once was with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 22.7% strikeout rate in 18 starts and 101 1/3 IP. Jake Irvin has also been solid, compiling a 3.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 21.6% strikeout rate in 19 starts and 112 IP. Which pitcher has a better chance of continuing their success into the second half?
RotoBaller gives Irvin a recommendation for Sunday. Both pitchers will face offenses that have been hitting well lately. Singer has a strikeout and ERA projection advantage, while Irvin has a win and WHIP projection advantage. The aggregate projections for both are almost identical, so this may come down to fantasy managers' preferences.
Both players have outperformed their underlying estimators with Singer pitching for a better team. I consider both pitchers to be fantasy sell-high candidates, as I expect regression for both of them in the second half of the season. If I had to pick one, I would go with Singer given his prior fantasy pedigree.
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