RADIO
If you’re a seasoned fantasy football veteran, then you know the importance of identifying breakout players. Fantasy managers have gotten better at identifying breakout players in recent years. As a result, it’s getting increasingly more difficult to find one at an affordable cost in drafts. Nevertheless, they’re still out there. Managers just need to look a little closer to find them.
Today, we are going to discuss Kansas City Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco and why he is lined up for a career year in 2024. While some will say Pacheco already broke out following his PPR RB15 finish last season, there’s a case to be made that he hasn't fully broken out just yet.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s examine the Chiefs RB1 and why you should select him in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
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Isiah Pacheco Background
Following a disappointing first two years for former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City was in desperate need of an upgrade at the running back position. After selecting Pacheco in Round 7 of the 2022 NFL Draft, the team seems to have found their answer. It was originally unknown if he would even make the final roster, but it soon became clear the team had found a gem.
Isiah Pacheco gets some big blocks and finds the end zone. 😤 @isiah_pachecoRB
📺: #KCvsNYJ on NBC⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cLJQ8MOopx pic.twitter.com/Kggr7MHXay
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2023
As a rookie in 2022, Pacheco ran for 830 rushing yards and five touchdowns. An RB37 finish didn’t exactly move the needle for fantasy owners, but Pacheco showed he had talent. The 2023 season saw Pacheco improve across the board. He set new career highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards. It all culminated with a PPR RB15 finish.
Another big gain for @isiah_pachecoRB 😤
📺: #KCvsNYJ on NBC⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cLJQ8MOopx pic.twitter.com/G0HMkraSA6
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2023
Advanced Metrics
One of the things that makes Pacheco such an intriguing selection in fantasy drafts is his advanced metrics. Among 49 running backs with 90+ carries, Pacheco finished:
9th in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT) per Next Gen Stats
9th in Explosive Rushing Yards Per Fantasy Points Data Suite
11th in Explosive Run % per Fantasy Points Data Suite
11th in Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE) per Next Gen Stats
13th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) Rushing Grade
15th in Yards After Contact per RotoWire
Overall, these are solid marks, and we should be very bullish on Pacheco’s 2024 outlook. Performing well in these metrics means he has plenty of upside and is less likely to cede touches to other backs on the roster. Strong metrics paired with a heavy dose of volume generally mean good things for fantasy football production.
Pacheco also ranked fifth in Percentage of Team Rushes in the Red Zone per RotoWire. This is an important stat as a higher finish means you are receiving more work closer to the endzone and are therefore more likely to score touchdowns.
Top-Five Upside?
We have long coveted backs in an Andy Reid offense and have, at times, elevated less talented players due to their perceived role in this offense (See Clyde Edwards-Helaire). Reid has not always opted to use a “bell cow” back in all 25 seasons of his head coaching career, but let’s examine how running backs have fared in terms of fantasy production when given the necessary volume.
There have been 11 times a running back in Reid’s offense has seen 250+ touches. Here are those backs and their PPR finishes:
1999- Duce Staley RB10
2002- Duce Staley RB14
2004- Brian Westbrook RB7
2006- Brian Westbrook RB4
2007- Brian Westbrook RB1
2008- Brian Westbrook RB8
2010- LeSean McCoy RB2
2011- LeSean McCoy RB2
2012- LeSean McCoy RB17
2013- Jamaal Charles RB1
2017- Kareem Hunt RB4
There were also several instances of backs who just missed the 250-touch cutoff:
2014- Jamaal Charles (246 touches) RB7
2016- Spencer Ware (247 touches) RB17
2023- Isiah Pacheco (249 touches) RB15
Nearly 82% of the time a back has received 250+ touches in Reid's offense, they finished as an RB1. So, we’ve confirmed that historically this is a situation we should target and that Pacheco is a good bet to at least repeat his 2023 production.
Let’s break things down even further and examine what’s happened when a back has eclipsed 300+ touches in Reid’s offense:
Why are YOU not higher on #Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco?
He’s KC’s clear RB1 with almost zero competition for touches. There’s a very realistic possibility that Pacheco sees 300+ touches in this offense.
There have been 7 times an RB has seen 300+ touches in an Andy Reid offense.…
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) July 1, 2024
71% of the time a back has received 300+ touches in Reid's offense, they have finished as a top-five back. Reid seems to have found his next guy in Pacheco. He had 249 touches in 14 games last year. He averaged 17.8 touches per game. If we project him to maintain that same volume over a full 17-game season, it equates to approximately 302 touches. Pacheco has proven he is a good back, and it would be exciting to see what he could achieve with that kind of volume in a high-powered offense.
Is Pacheco closer to Duce Staley than Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy in terms of raw talent? Yeah probably, but Pacheco’s advanced metrics make it clear he is a talented back even though he doesn’t get the same love from the fantasy community. There’s a decent chance that Pacheco’s 2023 RB15 finish was his floor, and we could see even better results this year.
Also working in Pacheco’s favor, Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back, Jerick McKinnon is no longer on the roster. When McKinnon missed several games last year due to injury, Pacheco filled the pass-catching role nicely. He finished the season with 44 receptions and showed he has enough pass-catching chops to get by. With McKinnon gone, there is no one else on the roster who poses a real threat for this role.
One last thing to note- it had been quite a few years since Reid utilized a back in a true RB1 manner, and some speculated that Reid was moving toward a running back by committee approach. However, the club did select Edwards-Helaire in Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft. Spending that kind of draft capital told us Reid still valued the position and wanted a lead back. He just chose the wrong player.
We shouldn’t worry about Kansas City splitting touches with anyone else on the current roster. This is now Pacheco’s backfield.
2024 Final Fantasy Football Expectations
If Pacheco receives the same volume he saw last year, then it’s more likely his FFPC RB12 price tag is closer to his floor than his actual fantasy ceiling.
No one on the roster is standing in Pacheco’s way, and he is the team’s clear RB1. It very much feels like drafting Pacheco is a health bet. Now, that’s always a risky proposition when it comes to running backs, but if you can get a good back with legitimate top-five upside at a reasonable cost, that seems like a wise investment. As long as he stays on the field, Pacheco is going to eat.
And yet, a bell cow back in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes only has an FFPC ADP of 37th overall? Yeah, this is a player you should want on your team. Pacheco is a real candidate for 300+ touches, and it would not be surprising if he again sets career highs across the board. He makes for a fine investment as an RB1 or RB2.
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