DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The John Deere Classic With Aaron Rai, J.T. Poston, Luke Clanton, Ryo Hisatsune, Daniel Berger and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The John Deere Classic

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The John Deere Classic

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

 

Last Five Winners of the John Deere Classic

2023	Sepp Straka	-21
2022	J.T. Poston	-21
2021	Lucas Glover	-19
2019	Dylan Frittelli	-21
2018	Michael Kim	-27

 

Expected Cut-Line At The John Deere Classic

2023	-3
2022	-2
2021	-3
2020	-2
2019	-2

TPC Deere Run

7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

We will go over the course on my podcasts this week!

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Deere Run	PGA Average
Driving Distance	285	283
Driving Accuracy	70%	61%
GIR Percentage	70%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	58%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.49	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Ball-Striking (Geared Toward TPC Deere Run) (10%)

 

Strokes Gained: Total TPC Properties (10%)

 

Strokes Gained: Total Easy-To Medium Strength Scoring + Short-To-Medium Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Easy Score + Putt 5-10 Feet + GIR (20%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Daniel Berger	80	0.085	6.8
Doug Ghim	80	0.085	6.8
Ryo Hisatsune	66	0.105	6.93
J.T. Poston	33	0.22	7.26
Aaron Rai	22	0.315	6.93

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories + Feature At Least 1 T10 Grade

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I don't believe the Jordan Spieth play is as bad as my ranking for him since I imagine he goes massively under-owned in DFS contests this week after earning the top-priced slot on the board. I am not necessarily itching to play him because I view this as an overpriced route. However, for me, the cream of the crop in the $10,000+ range is landing as Aaron Rai.

Rai ranked first in my model for all three iterations of overall, safety and upside, and led the field with five top-10 returns in the six categories I ran this week.

While I do expect Rai to gain some popularity, I wouldn't guarantee that he will be more popular than Sepp Straka or Sungjae Im, two golfers who graded well but were below Rai's potential in my sheet.

 

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I will be exposed to Maverick McNealy, Davis Thompson, and J.T. Poston. 

I had a very similar answer for J.T. Poston to the one we received last week with Min Woo Lee when my model also found an upside that exceeded the general viewpoint for his potential. It doesn't mean his floor isn't a little lower than some of his counterparts (an area of my sheet that did drop him toward the bottom of my top 10).

However, Poston's first-place rank for Weighted Strokes Gained Total for this event was much more impactful in terms of upside than any floor outcome since we are looking for ceiling potential in GPP contests. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I am buying the Luke Clanton hype after the college product stayed in the thick of things deep into Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. 

I don't have enough data to feel super confident in the returns I am getting here at the John Deere Classic. Still, Clanton has performed admirably multiple times this season, including at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago.  

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I bet both Ryo Hisatsune and Daniel Berger inside the outright market this week. 

My model had the two in a select group of nine players who ranked inside the top 60 of all six categories I ran and also placed inside the top 10 of one of those metrics.

I don't see a massive difference between the two, if we are being honest, which is why the duo likely split the six graded metrics three versus three.

I am playing both for all upside portions of the market.

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

Patton Kizzire is carrying the best onslaught of stats, course history and current form of anyone in this $6,000 range.

His 11th-place projected for ball-striking when geared toward Deere Run is a stout return for a player who has gained tee-to-green in four straight starts.

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Aaron Rai
$9,000+ - J.T. Poston
$8,000+ - Luke Clanton
$7,000+ - Ryo Hisatsune & Daniel Berger
$6,000+ - Patton Kizzire

 

Fade In Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - No natural fade. I won't be playing Spieth at the price, but I assume nobody is either. It is hard to negatively talk about that profile when he still graded as a top-30 play (albeit at the top-ranked player on the board).
$9,000+ - Sam Stevens
$8,000+ - Seamus Power
$7,000+ - S.H. Kim
$6,000+ - Peter Malnati

 

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