DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The U.S. Open With Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The U.S. Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The U.S. Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

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• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 60 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 20

Last Five Winners of the U.S. Open

Expected Cut-Line At The U.S. Open

Pinehurst No. 2

7,588 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

Tune into some of my podcasts this week to get a full course breakdown

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Recent Weighted SG: T2G (Geared Toward Pinehurst) (10%)

Strokes Gained: Hard Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained: Total Majors (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Long Iron + ATG (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Not a negative value over five spots off, including upside totals) - Looking at only top 50 this week

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

One of the most significant decisions we must make in DFS contests this week is how much (or little) Scottie Scheffler makes sense within your builds.

Contest specifics will play a heavy factor, but it is hard to find too many negatives for a golfer who needed a morning jail time at the PGA Championship to post his worst finish (8th) since his 10th at the Genesis in February.

We could point toward his middling bogey avoidance totals or negative trajectory for putting on similar Bermuda greens as a reason he could struggle. Still, we are making up a stance when there isn't a natural reason to fade the American. It doesn't mean I am playing anything other than defense with the percentage I am deploying for lineups, but I also don't see a reason to get my week torched when building out 150+ lineups.

I thought the $10,000+ range possessed a massive increase in projected win equity over the next tier. That suggests being more inclined to go overweight in exposure for these golfers while mostly overlooking the next section.

I am interested in where ownership lands for names like Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka since a subtle shift in any direction could marginally alter my stance, but I likely will find myself going underweight (as defense) with Scheffler and overweight with the rare sub-15/1 outright combo that I used in Schaffuele and McIlroy.

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Collin Morikawa's performance at the Memorial has completely reshaped this board when it comes to ownership.

I expect Morikawa to be very popular, and I certainly understand why. However, I still stand by my original sentiment that my model sees a difference in upside when comparing anyone in this range to Schauffele or McIlroy.

You see some of that with their price tags on DraftKings, which will further increase Morikawa's playability at this price, but any rebate that helps is going to be eaten up by his ownership. I am currently in, but I would just recommend being aware of aggregated ownership totals when constructing your builds.

While I see some contrarian reasons to consider defending champion Wyndham Clark, I will go with Ludvig Aberg as my second favorite play in this section. The injury concerns should keep his popularity in check, and it is hard to find a golfer better suited for success off the tee than him.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

It was hard to leave Matthew Fitzpatrick off the list, but Tommy Fleetwood and Hideki Matsuyama were the only two golfers in this section to crack the top 10 for both "overall rank" and "upside"

None of that should come as a shock since those were the only three names to grade inside the top 50 of all seven categories that I ran this week from the $8,000 section.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I am okay with considering every player listed in the image above. That might come as a shock after my firm stance against Jason Day last week.

My model loved Min Woo Lee's upside totals and how he performed on similar tracks, as well as Sungjae's recent surge from a statistical perspective.

$6,000 Options to Consider

$5,000 Options to Consider

We will talk about players in this section later in the week. I didn't have any substantial edges.

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele/Rory McIlroy
$9,000+ - Collin Morikawa/Ludvig Aberg
$8,000+ - Tommy Fleetwood
$7,000+ - Sungjae Im/Min Woo Lee
$6,000+ - Russell Henley
$5,000+ - 

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