DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - the Memorial Tournament Open With Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Tony Finau and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - the Memorial Tournament

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• Memorial Tournament

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 73
Cut: Top 50 & Ties (All players within 10 shots also make the cut)
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners of the Memorial

2023	Viktor Hovland	-7
2022	Billy Horschel	-13
2021	Patrick Cantlay	-13
2020	Jon Rahm	-9
2019	Patrick Cantlay	-19

 

Expected Cut-Line At the Memorial

2023	4
2022	3
2021	3
2020	4
2019	2

Muirfield Village

7,543 - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

One of the things I respect most about Jack Nicklaus and his design at Muirfield Village has been this constant belief that the course is meant to test players from a complete tee-to-green acumen.

There is no doubt that this started to become a "pitch-and-scramble" for a handful of years before Patrick Cantlay's 19-under par victory in 2019 caused Nicklaus to start from scratch to turn this back into a test that added a dynamic challenge to the mix. We saw some of that with Nicklaus adding 150 yards to the facility to enhance the challenge, including brand-new green complexes that produce extremely sinister results when you look at the four-inch thick rough that surrounds this layout from tee to green.

Part of that nature has added the missing off-the-tee element that the course didn't have before the change.An average winning score of just better than 10-under par has accompanied this event over the past four year. However, I think the most interesting correlation that the data begins to yield when you start diving deeper into the metrics is the disparity of accuracy getting easier off the tee but the GIR percentage plummeting for the field.

That is a unique combination since it highlights a few critical factors.

1. Easier-to-hit fairways add a more strategic element since golfers can achieve success if they avoid the gnarly rough, both in distance and accuracy.
2. Quick greens that are small in stature add to the difficulty since the continued nature of thick rough around the putting surface will place a higher emphasis on approach play than usual. That is one of the reasons we see the decline in GIR projection over the last four seasons.
3. Those two factors combine to devalue putting and expand the need for your critical tee to green totals.

I wouldn't call Muirfield Village a perfect venue by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, Nicklaus' resounding belief that he wants to test players above what we get every week on tour will be pronounced over the four days of play.

For that reason, it is hard to feel anything but excitement for the challenge we will get this go-around in Ohio.

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Muirfield Village	PGA Average
Driving Distance	281	283
Driving Accuracy	68%	61%
GIR Percentage	61%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	52%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.51	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Recent Weighted SG: T2G (Geared Toward Muirfield) (10%)

Strokes Gained: T2G Fast Bentgrass (10%)

 

Strokes Gained: Total Jack Nicklaus Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Total Driving + GIR Percentage (10%)

 

Proximity + ATG (10%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Collin Morikawa	16	0.45	7.2
Tony Finau	60	0.12	7.2

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Not a negative value over five spots off, including upside totals) - Looking at only top 30 this week

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Pricing feels standard in this section when we look at four of the top five favorites in my sheet landing in this $10,000+ range. I would power rank the four as Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland, but it feels hard not to eat the ownership in this position when the number one player in the world ranks inside the top two for all seven main categories I ran, including landing first six of those times.

I know ownership is going to likely be astronomical for Scheffler this week, but finding a course that better suits his game than Muirfield Village is challenging. My hope is that this $12,500 price tag that doesn't drop into the $5,000 territory elsewhere will do enough to keep his popularity in check.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Half the players in this range landed as a value. The other half were negative compared to their DraftKings price.

My favorite target is going to be Collin Morikawa. The American placed third for projected win equity, eclipsing that of recent major champion Xander Schauffele. My math also ranked him second for Weighted Tee-To-Green Production when taking on Muirfield Village, first at Nicklaus Courses, and third for Proximity + Around-the-Green Expectation. Those marks helped to position him next to Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the only three players in this field to land inside the top 10 of my model for all seven main categories that I weighed at Muirfield.

Let's not twist the narrative that Scheffler is the most likely winner of this event, although Morikawa will be the best value in the outright market.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

When the safety marks in my model outweigh the upside metrics, it can be less than ideal when there is a lot of ownership, but the price tag is too cheap here for Russell Henley, a golfer who ranked as the best pure value of any golfer at $8,000+ when comparing his price tag to his grade.

That projected ownership that I talked about is one of the reasons you see a negative leverage total for his "Upside GPP" rank inside of my sheet. However, Henley's combination of past Nicklaus production and Expected Strokes Gained Total on Fast Bentgrass greens helped place him in the top seven for each category.

That is a return that should add optimism when he has been trending this year with his putter.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

We will see where ownership trends over the next 48 hours, but my early hope is that Tony Finau will be the contrarian pivot that makes many of these lineups work.

I get all the intrigue around Si Woo Kim and liked him a bit myself, but Finau has presented the same poor putter that many are clamoring to roster with Kim and has beaten him head-to-head four of the past six times they have teed it up together.

The putter has shown some minor signs of life lately for Finau and is projecting better over his past 24 rounds than we had seen over his two-year baseline, making him a prime option to target in any upside market.

I know you have heard that answer from me a lot this year, but it is not as if many of those outcomes have resulted in poor DFS outings. We have consistently gotten quality leverage and respectable results, even if the overall upside has been subdued. Don't be shocked if Finau breaks-out in a big way here at Muirfield. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

I always find the market to be too low on Austin Eckroat. 

Eckroat ranked 18th for Projected Off-The-Tee production and climbed into the top 35 for recent metrics when weighing it precisely for Muirfield.

 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+ - Collin Morikawa
$8,000+ - Russell Henley
$7,000+ - Tony Finau
$6,000+ - Austin Eckroat

 

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