RADIO
The summer of golf has arrived! We have three Major Championships set to take place in the next 10 weeks, and first up is the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. We have seen Valhalla host three other PGA Championships since opening for play in 1986, but this will be the first one since the event switched from August to its current spot on the schedule in mid-May. It will be interesting to see if the change in timing along with the changes they have made to the golf course will have it play any different than we remember.
Those with an eye for golf course architecture may not love Valhalla, but one thing they cannot debate is that it has proven to give us fantastic leaderboards and dramatic finishes. Two of the previous three PGA Championships have required a playoff to decide the winner, and Rory McIlroy barely edged out Phil Mickelson on the 72nd hole in 2024 to win by one stroke. I'm hoping for another epic finish this year and I'm excited to bring to you my favorite players to watch for the 2024 PGA Championship!
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top-10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why.
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No. 10 - Max Homa
Progress can often be viewed through subjective lenses, but I believe that the performance Max Homa put on at Augusta National was a huge step in the right direction. He's a player that often wears his heart on his sleeve, but you could feel the momentum trending in such a positive direction before his shot that went into a bush on No. 12. To be honest, he barely missed his spot and I thought he caught a bad break, but in the end, a T3 finish was something Homa can hopefully build on as he prepares for the PGA Championship.
His iron play has started to trend in a positive direction. Two of his last four starts have resulted in the best strokes gained approach numbers of the season for Homa. He's become one of the more reliable top-end players in terms of putting and I can appreciate the strategic process that he and his caddie deploy on the golf course. I would like to see him play a bit more aggressively and I can see him taking another big step forward in terms of contending in Majors regularly moving forward.
No. 9 - Cameron Smith
Let me start by saying that I took my time building out an intricate stat model this week and Cameron Smith did not rate inside the top 50. That said, I can't help but believe that he just simply finds a way onto the leaderboard. Smith finished T9 at Oak Hill, a course that I think will profile very similarly in terms of setup, and also finished T13 at Southern Hills. The firm and fast conditions should only amplify his ridiculous ability both on and around the greens.
You cannot rule him out. He's coming off a second-place finish at LIV Singapore earlier this month and has slowly but surely been steadily ramping up his game for the Major Championship season. He still possesses unquantifiable traits to score and there are only a handful of players that I would say can be as clutch as Smith in big moments. If he can bring a decent driving week with him to Louisville, then he can potentially dominate Valhalla and separate from the pack on the smallish greens.
No. 8 - Collin Morikawa
A recent subtle tweak to his golf swing and Collin Morikawa has once again found the rhythm and path in his swing that temporarily abandoned him earlier this season. Morikawa noticed something just before the Masters, made the change, and went on to gain over seven strokes on Approach at Augusta National. It was a monumental improvement that resulted in a T3 finish in which Morikawa went off in the final pairing alongside Scottie Scheffler.
Another positive trend for Morikawa has been his improvement with the putter. He gained over three strokes putting at both the Masters and the RBC Heritage. His lack of distance off the tee can be a weakness that is quickly overcome when he can flush his irons and make a few putts. The 2020 PGA champion is looking to add another trophy to his closet in the hope of keeping the lid on this time. Here is a great piece about his current mentality and recent improvements by Patrick McDonald.
Caught up with Collin Morikawa to talk about his Masters run, swing coach changes and what it will take to chase down Scottie Schefflerhttps://t.co/kiMoRHmLFV
— Patrick McDonald (@pmcdonaldCBS) May 9, 2024
No. 7 - Bryson DeChambeau
We get our second LIV Golf player appearance as Bryson DeChambeau ranks No. 7 in my power rankings. Unequivocally the longest player off the tee in the field, he will hope to deploy his biggest weapon around Valhalla on a par-71 layout that stretches beyond 7,600 yards. It's right in his wheelhouse. DeChambeau laps the field with his driver and has now gained at least two strokes OTT in six straight Major Championships.
His success may depend on the depth of the rough. That said, it was quite gnarly last year at Oak Hill and DeChambeau was still able to power through it for a T4 finish, his best Majors finish of the season in 2023. He's coming off a T6 at the Masters in April and really showcased his continued ability to adapt. I do not doubt that he is a player, who despite the limited schedule on LIV, continues to put the necessary work and preparation into his game, which has already yielded him a US Open trophy.
If Scottie does not win at Valhalla, I could actually see Bryson DeChambeau winning at Valhalla for his second major championship.
Agree or disagree with @RyanLavnerGC? pic.twitter.com/2jPmkSo6sZ
— Golf Today (@GCGolfToday) May 1, 2024
No. 6 - Jon Rahm
We're on a run of LIV Golf players and I sort of can't believe that I don't have Jon Rahm in my top five. My concerns are likely the same ones that you have. The lack of competitive spirit and tournament reps on the LIV Tour have negatively impacted the performance of Jon Rahm. I am willing to admit that I could be wrong here. It's not like he has completely imploded. Rahm is consistently finishing inside the top eight and playing reasonably well, but he's yet to capture a victory when we all expected him to run the gambit on LIV.
I was so disappointed in how things ended up at Augusta National for Rahm. Maybe it was just too much all at once. It was his first time interacting with many of his former colleagues who felt a certain type of way, he had to host an awkward champions dinner, and all the storylines were centered on Rahm for the week. I know this; a week where you overlook Rahm can be a dangerous one. I don't think it would come as a surprise to anyone if he rediscovered his form and we know Rahm possesses the killer instinct to step on the gas when he needs to. This is the player I am most optimistic and confused by this week and I will be excited to see how things play out.
No. 5 - Ludvig Aberg
I spent a solid 15 minutes on my podcast for the Wells Fargo Championship laying out various stats and narratives about why Ludvig Aberg was going to win at Quail Hollow and we are primed for the summer of Ludvig. He withdrew a few hours after posting. The bets were refunded, and I'm tempted to roll them over into the PGA Championship had it not been for a concerning possible knee injury that Aberg detailed in an Instagram post.
Ludvig Aberg withdraws from the Wells Fargo Championship...https://t.co/coZpeTnQdx
— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) May 6, 2024
If you are on the side of this simply being precautionary, then go ahead and click Aberg once again. His lack of experience in Majors is only trumped by his natural ability, which can be compared to only a few on the planet. This guy was custom-built in a lab to take down Major Championships and humble the world of professional golf with his effortless power and grace. The injury is the only thing keeping him from being in my top three and I will be paying close attention to his interviews leading up to the event with an eye on betting Aberg to win.
No. 4 - Xander Schauffele
Full disclosure here, I'm writing this before the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship where Xander Schauffele appears to be in complete control of his game. I like to have this article penned and ready to post during the afternoon on Sunday for those of you who are ready to turn the page. He just eagled the seventh hole and finally looked to land a punch in his head-to-head with McIlroy. This Sunday is huge for Schauffele.
If he can finally win, it's not a monkey off his back heading into the PGA, it's an 800-pound gorilla! Schauffele has been playing at an elite, top-five level in the world for far too long without picking up a trophy on Sunday with the cameras flashing. This is a player we saw go back-to-back two years ago when he won at The Travelers and Scottish Open in consecutive weeks. With his confidence bubbling at the moment, he fits the exact profile of the type of player who will win multiple PGA Championships in his career.
No. 3 - Brooks Koepka
What's a win on the LIV Golf tour worth? How about four of them? In terms of career achievements, it's probably not a lot for Brooks Koepka, who has been open about his legacy being defined by one source, Major Championship wins. The defending PGA champion loves to gear up for these four weeks a year and it would appear that his body and mind have their sights set on repeating.
He made the seemingly strange switch to a mallet putter before The Masters, which did not pan out as planned. Things have been looking up since, rolling in a ton of mid-range putts in Singapore, and confidence with the flat stick seems to be gaining every week. Koepka is going to be there in the end. It's as close as a lock as you get in professional golf at Majors. Win No. 6 puts him in another stratosphere as one of the best to ever play the game. He's primed!
No. 2. Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy returns to Valhalla Golf Club. It's the venue of what I believe to be his career-best win, as McIlroy dawned the purple and snatched the trophy by brute force from Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler during dusk in Kentucky. 10 years later, he still remains the best player in the world swinging a driver, a weapon he should be able to once again put to proper use at Valhalla. The anticipation and confidence are beaming following another amazing week at Quail Hollow.
I want to see "Ruthless Rory" return! He's softened his attitude over the years, particularly with competitors, but I would love to see him piping driver down the throats of fellow players and fist-pumping putts with aggressive authority. Maybe McIlroy's recent slighting by a few fellow pros in his quest to regain his position on the policy board will ignite the fire that we have been patiently waiting for. Ruthless Rory was an absolute scene!
The fist pump. The swagger.
Rory was a cold blooded killer that day at Valhalla. pic.twitter.com/4ilyWugzWA
— Rory Tracker (@RoryTrackr) March 20, 2022
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
The drama behind these power rankings has been muted recently with the epic, all-time run that Scottie Scheffler has been on. He, of course, has four wins in his last five starts. That one misstep...a T2 at the Houston Open where a missed six-foot putt kept him from a playoff. I remember the "Tiger years," but I didn't have the same level of understanding and appreciation behind the difficulty as I do now, so this Scheffler run has been something otherworldly in terms of how I understand professional golf.
He's simply the best...better than all the rest. The only, and I mean the only thing that could throw a wrench in this whole thing, is the pending birth of his first child. That's still grasping at straws. Scheffler is THAT dude. He'll arrive with plenty of prep and you can believe the rest of the players on the leaderboard fear one man more than the rest...Scottie freakin' Scheffler!
Best of luck this week, RotoBaller family!
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