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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks for this marathon of a baseball season, so let's take a look at the board and get some momentum rolling as we head into next week.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 14, 2024.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2024 Regular Season: 2-8-0 (-6.21 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate. As the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Orioles
O/U: 8,5 | Moneyline: BAL -198
MIL: Colin Rea | BAL: Corbin Burnes
After another rough go of things on Friday, we'll look to bounce back here on Sunday with a couple of plays. Today we'll look at a first-five run line and a team total. Let's get it started.
The visiting Milwaukee Brewers will send right-hander Colin Rea (2-0, 1.64 ERA) to the mound. By looking at the record and ERA, you would think Rea is rightfully having a very nice start to the season. There's a bit of nuance here, though, as FanGraphs currently has his expected ERA at 6.53 and xFIP at 4.58. He projects to a 5.04 xFIP today against an Orioles lineup that projects a .406 wOBA.
The Orioles will send former Milwaukee Brewer ace Corbin Burnes (2-0. 1.93 ERA) to the mound against his former club. Similarly to Rea, Burnes has been "lucky" to start the season. However, it's not close; as Burnes comes into this one with a 2.01 xERA and 2.81 xFIP. He projects to a 2.57 xFIP this afternoon, while the Brewers project a .203 wOBA against the righty.
Corbin Burnes, Wicked Cutters. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/2TSkYU11Pd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2024
I'll leave the Sunday bullpens out of it here, grabbing the Orioles' first-five run line, which we can get at -140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Orioles F5 -0.5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.71 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Astros
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU -120
TEX: Nathan Eovaldi | HOU: Cristian Javier
I'll wrap up this slate down in Houston, where the Rangers and Astros wrap up their weekend set. We'll target the Rangers here, so let's look at how they shake out.
The Astros will give the ball to Cristian Javier (1-0, 1.10 ERA). Javier has pitched well through three starts but has left much to be desired, particularly a 3.58 xERA and 5.60 xFIP. Javier has an impressive 5-1 record with an ERA of 3.84 in 14 appearances (10 starts) against Texas since 2020. He's allowed at least three runs in four of those 10 starts, though, including an eight-earned run performance across 4.1 innings in Arlington in his only start against them in 2023.
The Rangers don't necessarily have incredible stats against Javier, but it should be more than enough to get the job done for us today. Corey Seager leads the way for this Rangers lineup, as he's 6-for-24 with two doubles and three homers against the righty. We're looking for just five runs here, and I'll take the over 4.5 runs at +110 on DraftKings.
Seager RHP
💣🤝 @Rangers | #StraightUpTX | @BallySports 📺 pic.twitter.com/P8GOqKVatD— Bally Sports Southwest (@BallySportsSW) April 10, 2024
Pick: Rangers TT Over 4.5 (+110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my X for more plays!
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