Unlocking Augusta National - 2024 Masters Course Preview and Breakdown

Hello friends! Spring is in bloom, private planes are en route to Georgia, and the pianos have been tuned up with the iconic jingle...Welcome to Masters week! Let's be honest, golf fans are more intimately familiar with the golf course at Augusta National Golf Club than any other course on the planet. I would be doing a disservice to reiterate the majority of the points and tidbits you will hear all week long in tournament preparation.

I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview. The field has been set to include the best players in professional golf, from all Tours and parts of the world that will attempt to unlock Augusta National Golf Club. It's no secret that course knowledge and experience are more important at this event than any other tournament on the schedule, let's take a deeper look at the "why?".

One quick note, thank you for reading this piece. The Masters week is the most important of the year for those of us who pour our hearts into curating golf content. If you enjoy this piece, please like, retweet, or share it with a friend. It goes an extremely long way and we are grateful. For those who are not currently a premium PGA subscriber with Rotoballer, we are offering a ridiculous 30% off all plans this week. Now, here is what you need at Augusta National to get yourself ready for the 2024 Masters.

An Introduction to the Course

We are about to witness the single greatest piece of golf course architecture on the planet Earth. The great Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones opened Augusta National in 1933. More than any other golf property built during this time period, Augusta National still stands strong today. They have utilized their bottomless resources to reimagine, restructure, and re-engineer this golf course throughout the years to keep up with the modern player while still maintaining the essence and charm of this majestic layout. For the 2024 Masters, they have pushed the tee back on the par-5 second hole to attempt to bring the fairway bunker back into play for longer hitters.

A first look at the new tee on No. 2 — Pink Dogwood. #themasters pic.twitter.com/luDhBQX0VM

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 5, 2024

The 2024 Masters has been once again extended and will now stretch to 7,555 yards, making it the third-longest course we have seen on the PGA Tour schedule this year. It will once again provide a truthful examination of a players' complete skill set and knowledge is always equal to power at Augusta National. There a moments and holes sprinkled throughout the golf course that require aggressiveness and guts. There are also numerous times that will test patience and the ability to avoid the improper miss. The greens are simply spectacular, wavy and oceanic in contour that will suit particular shot shapes based on pin locations. The word from my sources who have recently scouted the property is that Augusta is particularly firm right now and the greens are running at the pace of a marble floor. Bring it on!

The greens and tightly mown areas surrounding the green complexes are Bent Grass. One interesting note on the greens is that this will be the first tournament played in 2024 that features Bent Grass greens. The speed cannot be mimicked or repeated, you simply have to understand the slopes and contours to be able to putt it close to the hole. A Rye grass overseed which looks like dyed grass (Shhh) will be manicured to perfection and will have the familiar hue of green that magically appears every year. There are five holes where water can come into play, mostly along the back nine of the property.

The difference between an uphill and downhill putt at Augusta 🤯

pic.twitter.com/JVGtSx4Pwg

— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) April 8, 2022

Recent Winners:

2023: Jon Rahm -12

2022: Scottie Scheffler -10

2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10

2020: Dustin Johnson -20 (November Covid Masters)

2019: Tiger Woods -13

2018: Patrick Reed -15

Course Specs

A defining feature of Augusta National that is difficult to appreciate through the TV, is the the drastic elevation changes. The 1st, 9th, 10th, and 18th holes have points surrounding the clubhouse which sits at the highest point of the property. On each set of nines, the holes begin by moving downhill and finish by climbing back upwards the property. The biggest change is elevation on the property is on the 10th hole where a roller coaster-esque drop of 110 straight down takes place from tee to green. This can alter distances, and angles, and play mind games with players throughout the course, so having a player with experience here in particular or on other courses with substantial elevation changes is a big plus. Here is a look at the back nine from a golf.com piece on the dramatic changes.

Moving on, I think this course has always been thought of as a place that best suits left-handed players or those right-handed guys who play a draw. I don't believe that is necessarily true anymore. While I conceded that the majority of holes move in a right-to-left direction, the fairways often slope right to left which theoretically could make them tougher to hold. The ideal shot shape may even be a high fade because if you can hit the wider-than-average fairways, then the slope can assist you in holding them. Players are hitting the ball higher than ever with the Driver, and the majority of players are no longer blocked out by the trees on the left-hand side which previously forced them to move it left to right. Now they just go up and over. Here is a great clip from Phil Mickelson last week where he talked about their being advantageous opportunities for all players with different preferred shot shapes.

⛳️@PhilMickelson was asked about sharing information with other players, which he's happy to do, but dove in on some of the nuances around Augusta National. Masterclass from the 3 time winner. Pun intended.

Great question from @ProGolfCritic. pic.twitter.com/2dISAjwFIG

— LIV Golf Updates (@LIVGolfUpdates) April 3, 2024

Lastly, let's talk more about the greens. They are the greatest work of art at Augusta National and a masterpiece of design by Alister MacKenzie. You will see putts swerve and dip down relatively subtle slopes at unmistakable pace and prowess. The greens are often perched up with tightly mown surrounding areas that want to entice you to tackle pin locations with aggression, but the risk is grand. There are certain spots where players will need to exercise patience and proper course management to give themself uphill looks at a 2-putt. There are others set into bowls that create funnels that will leave the ball scaring the hole in played appropriately. Their beauty is in the variety and their ability to consistently reward fearlessness.

Statistical Considerations

I'll start with the easiest one. It's course history. There is no event on the schedule every year where it is more important than at Augusta National. Players chip well at Augusta who normally don't chip well. Players putt well at Augusta that don't normally putt well. The course itself is so nuanced and rewards experience that you have to pay active attention to it this week. Make sure to factor it heavily into your stat models and also stay in tune with the trends of historical value. I found this piece by Rotoballer's own Spencer Aguiar to be incredible and valuable.

We have narrowed down the winner in all five years of this article.

Only nine players were left standing in 2024 when running 'The Seven Deadly Sins At Augusta.'

Some of the names might surprise you.

Seven Deadly Sins - https://t.co/vTEoaF6zrX

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) April 5, 2024

Another stat that I have really honed in on for the Masters is par-5 scoring. Nearly 70% of the scoring at Augusta National takes place on the Par-5s. They are all reachable for most players in the field and provide your best opportunities to gain an advantage of the field. The majority of your time around Augusta National is spent attempting to find ways to make par and avoid bogeys. That is not the case on the Par-5s, as you have to be in full attack mode.

One of the more simplistic but predictive stats in terms of correlated success at Augusta National has been a player's Greens-in-Regulation rate. In some ways, it's the most accurate representation of approach play because it's often difficult to decipher where a player's intended landing location is on some of these greens. They may be intentionally playing it to 40 ft. to eliminate risk and give themself an uphill putt. Greens in regulation often tell the story, and I like to filter it with Augusta National-specific GIR rates if you have that data available to you as well.

Lastly, with the generous fairway widths and marginal rough, it creates a second-shot golf course by nature. The majority of those shots will come with a mid-to-long iron in hand. In 2023, 73% of approach shots came from 150-250 yards. Nearly one-third of all shots came from over 200 yards! Simply put, you are going to hit a ton of 4-6 irons. If you can look at GIR rates and proximity numbers from recent approach play on shots longer than 150 yards, it should provide a good baseline for how a player is hitting those longer approach shots.

Approach shot distribution from 2023 Masters, via Data Golf:

Stat Radar Plot for Augusta National, via RickRunGood.com:

Best Player Course Fit Rankings for Augusta National Golf Club:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Joaquin Niemann
3. Jon Rahm
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Bryson DeChambeau
6. Sergio Garcia
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Rory McIlroy
9. Tony Finau
10. Justin Thomas

*Based on last 36 rounds of player data.

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