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The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The Premier League rolls on with another full weekend of games as well as a couple of midweek extra games to look forward to. We won't be previewing those matches but they will factor into our FPL choices. West Ham United's inability to find the net ended our winning streak so we'll look to start a new one in Matchday 25.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Saturday, February 17, 2024
Brentford (+400) vs. Liverpool (-165) - 7:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 2 Liverpool
Brentford have lost seven of their last nine EPL games. Their home games average 3.67 goals per game (2.64 goals per game average away from home). Liverpool's two defeats this season have been away at sides currently in the top four. They've scored in all 12 away games this season but have only kept three clean sheets, two of which came against the current bottom two in the league. An away win is likely but both teams are set to score.
Fantasy Player Pick: Diogo Jota
Since returning from injury, Jota has five goals and three assists in six games (four starts). He's only scored bonus points in one of those six games. Liverpool's two games this week mean Jota will be a popular pickup and captain option. Given Liverpool's League Cup Final next weekend and their depth at the position, he's no lock to start both matches but Jota should provide a return in one game at least.
Burnley (+800) vs. Arsenal (-310) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Burnley 0 – 3 Arsenal
Burnley's won the fewest home points in the league (five). Only Sheffield United (12) have scored fewer home goals than Burnley (13). Five of Burnley's 13 home goals came in one game against Sheffield United. Each of Arsenal's last three away games have seen three or more goals, including last week's 6-0 victory at West Ham United. With 16 goals scored in their last four EPL games, expect at least three goals to be scored in this game.
Fantasy Player Pick: Bukayo Saka
If it wasn't for the double gameweek, I'd advocate stacking Arsenal forwards. Gabriel Martinelli has been in good form (four goal involvements in five games), Leandro Trossard keeps scoring (three goals in five games) and Declan Rice (one goal and three assists in four games) has been providing returns now he's on corner duty.
The same goes for Saka who is on corners from the right. The Gunners (16) have scored more set-piece goals than anyone else. Saka hasn't got an assist since Gameweek 15 but has now scored five goals in his last five games. The England winger has rediscovered his goal-scoring form and it would come as no surprise if that continues against a side that's conceded 14 goals in their last six EPL games.
Bukayo Saka is so back ❤️🔥
This week's Off The Bench podcast discuss the @Arsenal midfielder's sensational return to form 🗣️#FPL
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 14, 2024
Fulham (+200) vs. Aston Villa (+130) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 2 Aston Villa
Fulham's last seven home games have seen them score two or more goals five times. They've also won 5-0 at home twice in that span. Five of Villa's last six EPL games have seen three or more goals scored and they've averaged 3.67 goals a game. That includes a 0-0 draw against Everton, a scoreline Fulham also had with Everton in January. Villa's the better team on paper but their form has taken a dip. There should still be plenty of goals in this one.
Fantasy Player Pick: Rodrigo Muniz
I'm remaining loyal to Muniz after he scored a brace last weekend following my inclusion of him in last week's article. I mentioned Muniz being a great play in DFS given the number of shots he's having and the volume of his attacking involvement. He's now scored three goals in two games and has averaged a shot every 29 minutes despite starting just five games. Muniz remains a viable cheap DFS option, especially when Fulham plays at home.
Newcastle United (-120) vs. Bournemouth (+285) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 – 0 Bournemouth
After losing four straight league games, Newcastle's strung together a three-game unbeaten run. They've scored 10 goals in those matches. After picking up 19 points from a possible 21, Bournemouth have failed to win any of their last five games, scoring just four goals and conceding 12. The form of these two teams has been heading in opposite directions so a home win looks likely.
Fantasy Player Pick: Kieran Trippier
Trippier is back in form and providing plenty of returns for FPL managers who stuck with him. Trippier had just one assist between Gameweeks 10 - 21 but has now bagged four goal involvements in his last three games. Newcastle's last five games have seen them score at least twice in each and 14 goals in total. Bournemouth's struggled in front of goal lately and Trippier could easily find himself with a clean sheet and another goal involvement.
Kieran Trippier has already recorded a season-best return of assists 🅰️
There are still 14 Gameweeks for him to add to his tally 😮💨#FPL pic.twitter.com/Mhke4nocSJ
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 14, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+140) vs. West Ham United (+195) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 – 1 West Ham United
Forest have taken just one point from their last four games. Since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge, Forest's matches have averaged 3.86 goals per game. Both teams have scored in each of them. West Ham's six-game unbeaten run soon turned into a five-game winless run. While I expect both teams to score, West Ham's form is so putrid I can see a home win by a scoreline of 3-0 or better. So I'm taking the over 2.5 goals in this one.
Fantasy Player Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White
Gibbs-White hasn't been able to replicate his numbers from last season (five goals and 12 assists) but has still tallied eight goal involvements so far. Since the change in manager, Gibbs-White has scored or assisted in three of Forest's four home games. He's had seven shots in those four games and nine shot-creating actions so should again be heavily involved in Forest's attacking play. Gibbs-White also bagged an assist in the reverse fixture.
Tottenham Hotspur (-180) vs. Wolves (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 2 Wolves
Tottenham's won their last five home games, scoring 14 goals. They've failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight home matches. Only Newcastle's (90) matches have seen more total goals than Tottenham's (87). Wolves have conceded two or more in their last three games but have scored two or more in five of their last seven games. Expect more of the same in this one with a home win having the most appealing odds.
Fantasy Player Pick: Richarlison
Richarlison blanked for only the second time in nine games. Both times have been against Brighton. Although the Brazilian international failed to score or assist last week, he still had four shots (one on target) and six shot-creating actions. With Wolves coming into this game on the back of conceding at least two goals for a third straight game, expect Richarlison to get his name back on the scoresheet.
Manchester City (-295) vs. Chelsea (+700) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 – 0 Chelsea
City have now won six straight league games since their World Club Championship victory. The aggregate score in that time is 16-5. Five of those six wins have been by two or more goals. Chelsea's form continues to make them unpredictable. Their last three EPL games have seen them score six and concede nine goals. I expect Chelsea to try and keep things tight but City will still have too much for them. Even at these odds, there's value in backing a home win.
Fantasy Player Pick: Phil Foden
Foden is in the best form of his career. Four goals and four assists in his last seven EPL games were followed by a goal and assist in City's midweek Champions League tie. City have a Double Gameweek so stacking them and using the captain on one of their players makes the most sense this week. Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland are the other top options, but both have not long returned from varying injuries.
City may opt to play things carefully as they bid for back-to-back trebles. While Foden may be rested for one of their two matches, it's more likely they choose not to push Haaland or De Bruyne given all three of them played 90 minutes against Copenhagen on Tuesday. That makes Foden a slightly safer option, especially if you will use the triple-captain option this week.
SIX goals since the start of 2024 for Phil Foden 🌟🔵 pic.twitter.com/CpQSvKPdXt
— LiveScore (@livescore) February 13, 2024
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Sheffield United (+390) vs. Brighton (-160) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 – 1 Brighton
Sheffield United have scored at least twice in four of their last six EPL games. They've only taken four points from those games and also conceded 16 goals in that run. Brighton's only won four of their last 18 league games and drawn a league-high eight games this season. While I do fancy the hosts to replicate the score from their last meeting with Brighton, backing a draw is risky. I fully expect both teams to score given their defensive issues.
Fantasy Player Pick: Pascal Groß
As sketchy as Brighton's form has been, Groß has still been picking up points for FPL managers. Consecutive weeks of scoring double-digit points may have caused some FPL managers to regret dropping him following four straight blanks. Brighton's three games following this one have a Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) of two so this week is the ideal time to transfer in the Brighton midfielder.
⏩ Most forward passes by midfielders in the Premier League this season:
◎ 484 - Pascal Gross
◎ 480 - Rodri
◎ 431 - Declan Rice
◎ 422 - Bruno Fernandes
◎ 396 - Bruno Guimarães pic.twitter.com/KIxCgrnjjK— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 15, 2024
Luton Town (+310) vs. Manchester United (-125) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 – 2 Manchester United
Luton's 3-1 defeat last week was the first time a side has beaten them at Kenilworth Road by more than one goal. Of course, that was against the bottom-placed side in the table despite having faced eight of the current top ten at home. United's won their last three games and scored in six straight, although they only have one clean sheet in the period. An away win seems likely but both teams scoring seems to be a lock.
Fantasy Player Pick: Rasmus Højlund
It's no coincidence that an upturn in United's form has matched Højlund's production. The Danish striker has scored in each of United's last four games, all of which they've won or drawn. He's also picked up two assists in those games. You have to go back to Gameweek 15 for United's last win in which Højlund didn't score. I don't envisage a walkover but if United continues their unbeaten run, Højlund will likely have contributed with a goal.
5️⃣ goals and 2️⃣ assists in his last 5️⃣ starts
Rasmus Hojlund is in red-hot form, and #FPL managers are taking notice 👀 pic.twitter.com/4RcvPKV91w
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 14, 2024
Monday, February 19, 2024
Everton (-140) vs. Crystal Palace (+400) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
Everton have failed to score in four of their last five games and only scored more than one goal once in their last seven EPL games. Only two teams have scored fewer away goals than Palace (12) this season. They've only taken two points from their last six away games. Everton's form isn't good enough to justify their odds so I'm backing this to be a low-scoring affair. Just like their recent two FA Cup contests (0-0 and 1-0 scorelines).
Fantasy Player Pick: Jordan Pickford
It's not often I'll pick a goalkeeper but given the lack of offensive FPL options in this game, it may not come as a surprise. This is based on the assumption that Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise will continue to miss time with their respective injuries. Pickford leads the league with eight clean sheets this season and his 72.2% save% is the sixth highest in the league.
Everton's kept three clean sheets in their last five home league games with only Manchester City and Tottenham breaching their defense in that run. With no appealing midfield or forward options, staking Pickford with an Everton defender in games such as this should provide plenty of clean sheets. It can be done at less than £9.0m so also offers plenty of financial flexibility in bolstering your midfield and attack.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Brentford 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -165 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -170 |
| Burnley 0 – 3 Arsenal | Arsenal -310 | O2.5 -160 | No -125 |
| Fulham 2 – 2 A. Villa | Draw +270 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -190 |
| Newcastle 2 – 0 Bournemouth | Newcastle -120 | U2.5 +170 | No +170 |
| Notts Forest 2 – 1 West Ham | Notts Forest +140 | O2.5 -115 | Yes -155 |
| Tottenham 3 – 2 Wolves | Tottenham -180 | O2.5 -235 | Yes -195 |
| Man City 2 – 0 Chelsea | Man City -295 | U2.5 +165 | No +105 |
| Sheff United 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +330 | U2.5 +135 | Yes -165 |
| Luton 1 – 2 Man United | Man United -125 | O2.5 -180 | Yes -185 |
| Everton 1 – 0 C. Palace | Everton -140 | U2.5 -155 | No -130 |
| Season totals | 119/238 | 130/238 | 138/238 |
| Season parlays | 2/23 (-15.27u) | 6/23 (+10.14u) | 8/23 (+20.54u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
