RADIO
Happy February, and welcome to a fresh start to a new month. After only five games yesterday, we have a full 10-game slate to look at tonight.
My last article on Monday generated some good results. Going 2-1, I hit on the Wizards team total under and the Nets first half ML. The loss was Bucks +4.5 in Denver. Milwaukee put up a good fight, but ultimately ended up losing by six. I'm looking for a sweep tonight, and that'd be a great way to start the new month of picks.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday, February 2.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Phoenix Suns (-3) at Atlanta Hawks (248.5 total)
The Phoenix Suns have looked great lately. After losing a recent seven-game winning streak, they dropped two straight. Since dropping those two, they have gotten back to their winning ways, winning two straight. That would put them at 9-2 in their last 11 games. In those 11 games, Phoenix is hitting 54.5 percent of their FGA and 40 percent from three. The 122.1 points they've averaged are the sixth-best among teams in that stretch.
Most importantly, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal have played every game during this stretch. Booker is averaging 33.7 points on 61.4 EFG%. Durant is scoring 25 PPG while shooting 63.3 percent. Bradley Beal, who has averaged 35.9 minutes during this stretch, is scoring a modest 18.3 points while also chipping in with 5.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game. Surprise, surprise, having your best players on the court creates a winning product. These three are really fun to watch together, and I keep my fingers crossed every game that none of them take a bad step.
Aside from those three, Jusuf Nurkic put up 28 points and 11 rebounds against the Brooklyn Nets in their win on Wednesday night. He now gets to go against a Hawks team that is allowing the third-most points per game this season. Eric Gordon has also turned in back-to-back good performances, scoring 23 and 17 points. Those top three will do their thing, but it's the unpredictability of the supporting cast that makes this team very intriguing to watch.
In this 11-game stretch, the Hawks are giving up 121 points per game, which is 25th in the league. Phoenix is allowing 114, the 12th best during that span. The Suns are playing good ball right now; I'll roll with them on the road.
The Pick: Suns -3 (-118 DraftKings)
Orlando Magic (+8) at Minnesota Timberwolves (213 total)
I've been burned underestimating the Orlando Magic too many times this season, and I won't be making that mistake again tonight. If they go down and don't cover, we fall together. Orlando comes into this game off of a 108-98 victory in San Antonio. The win and cover improved them to 16-10 ATS on the road. Jamahl Mosley's team is an NBA-best 31-17 ATS, according to Action Network.
The Timberwolves have also been good ATS this season. They are 24-22-2 and 12-9-1 at home. Both of these teams are excellent defensively. I thought about taking the under, but scoring in the NBA is so unpredictable that I'd rather stay away from a game with a low total. Naturally, Orlando gives up more points on the road than at home. That number still places them in the top seven among road teams. The Magic do a good job limiting shot attempts, and the Timberwolves can go through stretches struggling to score.
Orlando has a lower-tier offense, so I think the only way they stay in this game is by dialing up defense. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace and fast break points. I find this notable because the styles mimic each other, and they should be playing similar games. If Minnesota goes scorched earth from three, so be it. I don't see that happening, and this is a good amount of points to play with for the NBA's best team ATS this season.
The Pick: Magic +8 (-110 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Miami Heat (-8.5) at Washington Wizards (232.5 total)
The Miami Heat finally found themselves back in the winner's circle after losing seven in a row. Thanks to a 115-106 victory at home over the Sacramento Kings, Miami avoided falling to 24-24 on the season.
I'm going to take the Heat in the first half here. Carrying over from their recent win, I like them to come out playing well. I wouldn't mind laying the full-game number, but I'm just going to try to get a win in the opening 24 rather than wait for the full 48.
According to EV Analytics, the Heat are 27-19-2 ATS in the first half this season. They are actually 0-5 in their last five and have been much better this season than that. Washington is just 9-12-1, covering the first half spread at home.
The teams are basically identical in points per game and field goal percentage, but Miami does hold a nice edge in three-point percentage. Washington allows the 12th most first-half three-point attempts, so Miami will get their looks. I also think Miami will be motivated after breaking their bad streak. The Heat have a top-10 first-half defense, and we could be looking at blowout city in this game.
The Pick: Heat First Half -4.5 (-115 PointsBet)
Favorite Teaser: Buying 5 points: PHO +1 - ORL +13 (+100 FD)
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