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Justin Verlander 2024 Player Outlook: Veteran Arm Finally Showing Signs Of Decline
11 months agoWhile Father Time remains undefeated, Justin Verlander has been one of his toughest opponents. In his age 40 season, in 27 starts Verlander had a 13-8 W-L record, 3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 144 Ks (162.1 IP). Despite another very good season from the future Hall of Famer, there were some red flags. Verlander's 4.56 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA was fortunate. Both were also large drop-offs from the 3.23 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA Verlander had in 2022. We also saw significant regression in Verlander's strikeout rate (27.8% K% in 2022 and 21.5% K% in 2023) and walk rate (4.4% BB% in 2022 and 6.7% BB% in 2023). His 14.8% K-BB% ranked 66th among the 127 pitchers with at least 100.0 IP. Verlander's numbers were similar with the Mets and Astros so it doesn't look like he can turn back time over a full year back in Houston. Verlander also missed time due to a right shoulder injury in 2023 as all signs are pointing towards age catching up with him. Don't be surprised if he can defy the odds. But, there are just too many indications that this is the end of what has been a wonderful career.
