The American Express Course Preview and Breakdown (2024 PGA DFS, Golf Betting Analysis)

Hello and welcome to my official course and event preview piece for the 2024 edition of The American Express. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course (in this case courses) to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the everchanging variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.

We have an interesting and challenging event this week as we are faced with the tall task of handicapping a tournament that consists of the dreaded 3-course rotation. We are going to put the bulk of our focus on understanding the nuances of the Stadium Course at PGA West which will play host for 36 holes, including the final 18 on Sunday. The other notable course with historic Shot-link data that we can analyze is the Jack Nicklaus-designed Tournament Course, also located at the PGA West resort in Palm Springs, CA. The third and final course will be La Quinta Country Club, just a 5-mile drive down the road from PGA West.

We have seen this rotation now for enough years that we can develop a baseline expectation and understanding of how they will be set up and intended to be played. We can utilize this data along with some insights I have seen from the past to curate a proper course fit projection for certain players. I want this to be the place where you all can begin your research and analysis each week so if there is anything you would like to see added or altered, please let me know and we will continue to evolve this article in hopes of becoming the most complete and best course preview article in the industry!

An Introduction to the Courses

All three courses are essentially short Par 72 layouts with a desert-esque background and feature predominantly Bermuda Grass, which is also typically dormant off the fairways this time of the year in Palm Springs. The PGA West Courses (Tournament Course and Stadium Course) were both developed as part of the expansive PGA West project in the mid-1980s. The amount of golf destination resorts that feature 18-hole designs from Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus are few and far between so this place is quite special. I have heard anecdotally from friends who have visited and played here that it is one of the most fun golf resorts in the world for players of all skills.

One highly important note about this event is that it once again follows a Pro-Am format after a brief hiatus from this style during COVID. Since both the players and the amateurs need fair and equal opportunity to play all three courses, the cut is made after the Saturday round and the Top 65 pros will play by themselves on Sunday at the Stadium Course to decide the winner. The Stadium course was slightly lengthened last year to play 7,187 yards and was originally designed by Pete Dye to be the sister course to TPC Sawgrass, but located on the West Coast. He even installed a version of his famed 17th hole island green at PGA West, which also plays as the 17th hole and is 165 yards to a small island over water and a dramatic rockwall that has provided some awkward bounces more than a time or two.

All three courses have consistently ranked amongst the easiest-scoring courses on Tour. In 2023, the Nicklaus Tournament Course had a 68 scoring average, while both the Stadium Course and La Quinta played to an average score of 69. If I'm being honest, a birdie fest tournament held across three different courses with limited TV and statistical data is far from my favorite event on Tour. From a predictability standpoint, I feel like it is important to simply embrace the volatility early in the week and work from there.

Ten of the last fourteen winners have come at odds 55/1 or longer pre-tournament. The average winning score over the past 5 seasons at The American Express has been -25, so we advise looking into players comfortable in birdie-fests and don't be afraid to take a few longshots, since 2019 we have had 3 winners at 200/1+ odds (Hudson Swafford 2022, Andrew Landry 2020, Adam Long 2019). Even last year, Davis Thompson took Jon Rahm down to the wire at a 250/1 long shot.

The Scorecard - Stadium Course

Course Specs

As we mentioned earlier, all three courses play incredibly easy by Tour standards and it often ultimately becomes an examination of how close you can hit your wedges and putting ("piece of shit putting contest" Jon Rahm). However, do not discount the importance of Driving Accuracy. We have seen players like Andrew Landry, Adam Long, and Abraham Ancer complete and play very well in the past because of their ability to consistently drive it straight despite a lack of distance.

Players will have to do major damage on the Par 5s this week to have a chance at winning. If you can hit a good drive, most if not all are reachable in two shots by the majority of the field. The green surfaces will run pretty quick and pure and courses will feature both Bermuda and POA greens. Let's take a deeper look into the intricacies and specs of all three courses on tap for this week.

Stadium Course (PGA West)

• Design: 1986 Pete Dye
• Par 72, 7,187 yards
• Fairways and rough: Bermuda Grass
• Greens: 5,000 st ft (tiny) TifDrawf Bermuda with POA overseed
• 7 holes with water in play
• -2.74 2023 scoring average

Tournament Course (PGA West)

• Design: 1987 Jack Nicklaus
• Par 72, 7,147 yards
• Fairways and rough: Ryegrass fairways and Bermuda rough
• Greens: 7,000 sq ft TifEagleBermuda with POA overseed
• 5 holes with water in play
• -3.28 2023 scoring average

La Quinta Country Club (La Quinta)

• Design: 1999 Lawrence Hughes
• Par 72, 7,060 yards
• Fairways and rough: Bermuda Grass
• Greens: 4,733 (super tiny) st ft POA with Rye overseed
• 7 holes with water in play
• -2.42 2023 scoring average

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet The American Express

PGA West (Dye and Nicklaus Courses) / La Quinta Country Club pic.twitter.com/fo6eE5q0Dh

— Gator Sports Betting (@GatorBetting) January 15, 2024

Statistical Considerations

As touched on briefly earlier in this piece, this tournament relies heavily on wedge proximity and putting every year. However, one element that often goes a bit overlooked is the dramatic impact that the magnitude of water often has. On numerous holes, it lines the entire fairway on one side from essentially tee to green. Players who are troubled by a left-miss off the tee will often struggle here because if you hook it into the water with Driver you will have to re-tee on certain tee boxes. I am absolutely putting added emphasis on Driving Accuracy in my stat models this week. 

Once again this week, I firmly expect scoring for the winner to be somewhere around -25 under par, so taking a deeper look into players who perform better than their baseline on courses with easy scoring conditions and courses under 7,200 yards is important and noteworthy. The greens at PGA West, while smallish in size run very true with little impact from the Bermuda grain or late afternoon bumpiness that often plagues POA greens. The make percentage from inside 10 feet and one-putt percentage at this tournament is annually inside the top 6.

The perplexing element to this week is that typically in a tournament that annually yields -25 under par, the path to victory is typically through expert iron play and not solely reliant upon the putter, despite what the hot mics and frustrated players may tell you. Last season, only 1 player inside the top ten gained more the 1.5 strokes putting on the week, and champion Jon Rahm actually lost over a full stroke on the greens.

The weather is often unpredictable this time of the year in Palm Springs and we have seen it effect play substantially on more than one occasion. The mornings can be cold and the afternoons tend to get very windy historically, so I would pay close attention to the weather report throughout the week to see if you are able to leverage a tee time or course advantage on certain players when looking at betting or DFS.

Lastly, I think it would be foolish to overlook recent birdie or better rates and players who have a greater than average of scoring 3+ strokes better than field average. You HAVE to go low and shoot in the 60's every day.  La Quinta and the Tournament course setups allow players to be very aggressive, while the Stadium Course has rewarded a more careful approach over the years with so much water in play and typically Pete Dye mind games.

Approach shot distribution from 2023 at Stadium Course via Datagolf:

Course Fit Tool Radar Plot via Datagolf for the Stadium Course:

Players With The Best Course History At The American Express

10. Will Zalatoris

9. Davis Thompson

8. Andrew Putnam

7. Sam Burns

6. Tony Finau

5. Scottie Scheffler

4. Sungjae Im

3. Patrick Cantlay

2. Adam Hadwin

1. Si Woo Kim

*All data based on last 36 rounds strokes gained total numbers from this tournament

Click this link if you are interested in my personal Top 10 Power Rankings for the Sony Open article as well.

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