RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer, respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, January 4, 2024, at 7:00 PM EDT. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter/X @df_solutions, or in our premium Slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/4/24
We have finally made it! The 2023-2024 season is just about halfway done as the holiday season closes. There have been some surprises in the good and the bad, and generational talent Connor Bedard has not disappointed. With teams still in flux and many unwritten stories yet to take fold, the race to the Stanley Cup is heating up!
Tonight, we have a 13-game slate and no teams playing on a back-to-back. The currently live top-three highest implied team totals are: New York Rangers with 4.5, Los Angeles with 3.8, and Winnipeg with 3.8. I will do my best to guide you through this 13-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Elvis Merzlikins - DK $7.2K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
There are a few routes to go in net tonight and Merzlikins happens to be one of the best value options to choose from. Despite him being on the Blue Jackets, he has been performing admirably over a good stretch. In his last five starts, he has a 1-0-3 record with a 4.00 Goals Against Average and a 0.893 Save Percentage.
Furthermore, in his last 10 games -- excluding splits -- between 58 possible goalies who have played 120 or more minutes, Merzlikins is the sixth-best in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 -- 1.03. At home, the Flyers have been surprisingly bad in their last 10 games, getting outscored 12 to 21. They are also the third-best team tonight in Shots Per Goal Per 60 value. All of this sums up Merzlikins for a potentially good night tonight and perhaps an upset win in Philadelphia.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Saros (DK $7.9K || FD $8.K)
- Blackwood (DK $7K || FD $6.8K)
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Pierre-Luc Dubois - DK $3.5K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
The Kings are one of the ‘chalk’ plays of the night tonight, but how many people will be on their third line? PLD is not the ‘go-to player’ he once was when he first got drafted by the Blue Jackets seven years ago. After failing with the Jackets and in a top-six role with the Kings, he has since been dropped to the third line. However, in his last five games, he has 2 goals, 14 shots, and 1 blocked shot. His peripheral value is there right now and in a prime matchup against a Red Wings defense who loves to give up shots, this is an optimal spot for a pay-down option.
Anthony Cirelli - DK $3.7K || FD $4.6K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Speaking of value plays and paying down, Cirelli is the next optimal center in the $3K range on DraftKings. Starting on Tuesday -- barring a lineup change tonight -- Cirelli was moved to the top line along with Steven Stamkos to play alongside Nikita Kucherov. The Minnesota Wild are coming off a game where they made the Calgary Flames look good again and Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to start once again tonight. On such a big slate and Tampa Bay underperforming over the last few weeks, this could be a sneaky play, especially if they end up having a good night. In Cirelli’s last five games, he has 1 assist, 9 shots, and 6 blocked shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- MacKinnon (DK $9.9K || FD $10.4K)
- Trocheck (DK $5.9K || FD $6.7K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Artemi Panarin - DK $8.5K || FD $10.1K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Welcome to the ‘chalk team’ of the night. In the last 10 away games for Chicago, they are the worst team in the league, being outscored 12 to 35. Panarin, in his last five appearances, has 6 goals, 2 assists, and 18 shots. The winger can hit the Shots Bonus on DraftKings tonight -- five or more shots -- due to Chicago conceding shots left, right, and center. In Chicago’s last 10 games, they are the third-worst in Shots Against Per 60, the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and Goals Against Per 60, and the worst in High Danger Chances Against Per 60.
Nikolaj Ehlers - DK $5.8K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Arguably the ‘chalkiest’ team on the slate is the Winnipeg Jets. The Sharks remain the worst team in the league and Ehlers is averaging four shots per game in his last five. Furthermore, he also has 1 goal, 1 assist, and 5 blocked shots. Even in a 13-game slate, Ehlers may be one of the highest-owned wingers in all contests thanks to his ‘affordable’ salary and his high floor and high potential.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Stamkos (DK $6.8K || FD $8.5K)
- Fiala (DK $5.4K || FD $6.5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Ivan Provorov - DK $4.1K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
There are not many viable options in the value department at defense tonight that also offer a relatively high ceiling. However, Provorov gets close. The defenseman has been promoted to the top pairing and he now quarterbacks the top power-play unit for Columbus ever since teammate Zach Werenski went down with injury. In Provorov’s last five games, he has 2 assists, 4 shots, and 6 blocked shots. Heading into a rivalry Metro matchup with the Philadelphia Flyers, Provorov should be able to maintain value from peripherals alone. Anything past that will be a bonus.
Marcus Pettersson - DK $3.5K || FD $4.6K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
Speaking of peripherals, Pettersson is due for a high-floor night tonight against the B’s. Pettersson has relished in his promotion to the top pairing and in his last five games, he has 6 assists, 4 shots, and 9 blocked shots. Boston will be a close matchup for the Penguins, who are coming off an arguably abysmal home loss to the Washington Capitals on Tuesday. For Pettersson to maintain value, he will only need a few shots and a few blocked shots, which should be very attainable tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Fox (DK $5.4K || FD $7.2K)
- Doughty (DK $5.2K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NYR1
- WPG1
- LA1
- COL1
- DAL1
- TB1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- NYR: Panarin-Trocheck-Lafreniere
Chalk Stack
- WPG: Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi
Sneaky Stack
- PIT: Smith-Malkin-Rust
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
