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Welcome back and happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We have quite the game tonight, with a quarterback matchup that nobody expected. It'll be Trevor Siemian and the New York Jets (6-9) heading to Cleveland to take on Joe Flacco and the Browns (10-5).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jets vs. Browns NFL DFS showdown slate on December 28. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
UPDATE: Amari Cooper has been ruled out vs. New York. Joe Flacco should be downgraded, while Elijah Moore and David Njoku can be upgraded.
Garrett Wilson - WR, $14,700 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 153 targets, 88 receptions, 958 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -42.4%
I'll start things off tonight with Garrett Wilson. I'll be honest, this game is extremely difficult to break down from a DFS standpoint given the projected game script. However, Wilson projects to 9.04 targets, 5.32 receptions, 59.52 receiving yards, and 0.39 touchdowns. It'll be a tough matchup against this Cleveland defense, but I'm more or less going for volume over matchup here. After just four targets against the Dolphins in Week 15, Wilson racked up a whopping 15 targets on Sunday. That's now six of his last nine games where he's seen double-digit targets, so we'll pay the price at the 1.5x spot.
Jerome Ford - RB, $12,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 189 rushing attempts, 743 rushing yards, 57 targets, 40 receptions, 236 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -18.23%
I'll take a look on the other side of the field next with Jerome Ford. Both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will likely be a 60/40 split, making both a solid play here. Despite the price difference, I lean toward Ford here slightly, as he projects to 11.32 carries for 43.93 yards, as well as 2.11 receptions on 2.75 targets for 16.25 yards and 0.49 total touchdowns. It's a tough matchup, but while the Jets rank third in DVOA against the pass, they rank 13th against the run, proving to give the Browns more of a rushing funnel tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Flacco, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt, Breece Hall
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DFS Flex Plays
Joe Flacco - QB, $10,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,307 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -35.24%
I'll take a look at Joe Flacco next. Can you call it a revenge game for Flacco in this situation? I don't think so, but I don't think that matters either. Flacco has put up 20+ fantasy points in three of his four starts. This will be his toughest test to date, obviously, against the Jets' third-ranked passing defense. Flacco projects to just 166.11 passing yards and 0.89 passing touchdowns, but given this heater that he's on, he's becoming a difficult fade.
David Njoku - TE, $7,800 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 115 targets, 75 receptions, 748 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: -18.4%
I'll take a look at David Njoku next. Njoku has had a great season to this point, logging at least 10 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games, and at least 15 in each of his last three games. Tonight, he projects to 3.79 receptions on 5.88 targets for 39.56 yards and 0.35 touchdowns. Like everyone else in this game, Njoku doesn't have a very good matchup, as the Jets come into this one ranked third in DVOA against tight ends. As mentioned with Garrett Wilson though, I'll back the volume here.
Other Flex Options: Breece Hall, Amari Cooper
DFS Value Plays
Cleveland Browns - D/ST, $5,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 18.87 points per game allowed, 44 sacks, 16 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
I'll take a look at the Cleveland Browns defense next. The Jets have had quarterback issues throughout their season, perhaps they should've signed Joe Flacco when they had the chance (ha). A bigger issue for the Jets, though, as they rank 26th in the league in pressure rate and 29th in the league in sack rate. Today, the Browns' defense projects a 37.81% pressure rate and an 11.38% sack rate.
New York Jets - D/ST, $5,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20.47 points per game allowed, 40 sacks, 14 interceptions, eight fumble recoveries, and three defensive touchdowns.
In a game with a total of 34.5, double defense will be the chalky option, but most likely the right option. I mentioned earlier how great Joe Flacco has played, and while I do think he can do enough to be a viable option in tonight's showdown slate, the regression has to be on its way. That is somewhat indicated in his projections, but even more so in the trenches. The Jets' defense projects to a 40.81% pressure rate and 8.37% sack rate.
Other Value Plays: Greg Zuerlein, Riley Patterson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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