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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 17 Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Browns.
Last week’s picks went 1-2 after a heroic effort from Derek Carr, bringing us to 8-4 (67%) since taking over this column in Week 13. Let’s start Week 17 off right with three more top props.
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NFL Sleeper DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday Night Football
Trevor Siemian UNDER 169.5 Passing Yards
With Zach Wilson still in the concussion protocol, QB Trevor Siemian will get his second consecutive start for the Jets. Last week the 32-year-old went 27-for-49 for 217 yards, one touchdown, and one pick in a close win over the Commanders.
Unfortunately for Siemian, his matchup with the Browns on Thursday night is the toughest in the league this week. Cleveland gives up an average of 160.1 passing yards per game, the least in the NFL this season by over eight yards. They have held four of their last six opponents to 166 passing yards or less and are a good bet to do so once more against the Jets and their 31st-ranked passing attack.
PFF agrees with this pick, giving Siemian’s passing under a 70% likelihood of hitting. Fade him on Thursday.
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Breece Hall OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
RB Breece Hall has been a bright spot for the lackluster Jets offense this season, tallying 1,269 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns over 15 games. He has accounted for 28.9% of his team’s scrimmage yards this season, second only to MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey.
Despite a similarly bleak outlook for the Jets offense this week against the Browns, Hall is in a position to over-achieve through the air. Last week with QB Trevor Siemian under center, Hall accounted for 36% of his team’s catchable targets en route to 12 catches and 96 receiving yards.
While he is certainly not likely to reach those marks this week against the Browns and their top-ranked defense by DVOA, he is showing value on a 28.5 receiving yards prop. Hall has reached 29 or more yards in five of his last 7 games (71%) and two of the three games Siemian has appeared in. Grab this bet before it moves, although I would bet it up to 29.5 yards.
Quinnen Williams UNDER 0.5 Sacks
Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has the highest implied likelihood of getting a sack among Jets defenders this week according to Sleeper DFS (2.19x bet multiplier) and DraftKings Sportsbook (+125), but he is a great fade against the Browns.
After signing a $96 million extension this past offseason, Williams has yet to realize his pass-rushing potential. He has tallied 3.5 sacks this season, fifth-most on his team. He seems also to save his best performances for top-ranked offenses – those 3.5 sacks have come across five of his 15 games in 2023 (33%), all against opponents in the top 13 in offensive DVOA. The Browns rank 27th in this category.
The 26-year-old has lined up predominantly on the right side of the interior defensive line for the Jets. Based on that he will be matched up most often opposite Browns Pro Bowl LG Joel Bitonio, who has only allowed two sacks all season. With great bang for your buck on this prop, it is an excellent one to build a high-value TNF parlay around.
Be sure to check out the rest of our prop betting coverage later this week. Good luck with your picks!
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