RADIO
After back-to-back nights of in-season tournament quarterfinals, we have a full slate of games. There are 11 games and 22 teams in action tonight.
Continuing with the theme this season, I'll be targeting a few games and taking my best swing. I've had an up-and-down season, but I'm ready to attack tonight's slate. Let's get into it.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 6th.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Orlando Magic (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (223 total)
The Orlando Magic were the hottest team in the NBA before getting blown out in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Previous winners of nine straight, Orlando is an impressive 14-6 this season and looks ahead of schedule in their young team development.
Cleveland has been playing good basketball recently, going 7-3 in their last ten. Despite these teams being similar across the board in the last ten games, I like the Cavs at home tonight.
Orlando scores more points per game, but they shoot nearly identical field goal percentages. The Magic shoot better from three (37.7%) than Cleveland (34.8%), but neither are great outside shooting teams. Opposing teams commit the sixth-fewest fouls against the Cavaliers. This is encouraging news for Cavs bettors, as Orlando attempts the most free throws per game. It'll be very important for the Cavaliers to stay disciplined. In the last ten games, the Magic are averaging 119.0 points per game. They are getting 22.5 points per game on just foul shots.
Cleveland has been the better defensive team in this stretch. They have a better defensive rating and are allowing 108.4 points compared to Orlando's 112.0. Opponents are shooting 46.9 percent against the Magic and 44.5 percent against the Cavaliers. It's a small margin, but every advantage counts when trying to find an edge.
According to hashtag basketball, Cleveland has been stingy against small and power forwards this season. This could make life tough for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic team goes as their two best players go.
The Cavs are only 3-7-1 ATS at home this season. Last season, they were 24-16-1 ATS at home in the regular season. I think they start picking up some home covers, and I like them in this spot.
The Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110 Caesars)
Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Toronto Raptors (216.5 total)
I really like the Heat in this game. Miami averages slightly more points than the Raptors but shoots it better when it comes to field goal and three-point percentage.
The Heat are only 14th in threes made per game but are fourth in three-point percentage. Toronto is a little better than the league average in limiting three-pointers made per game. Opponents are hitting their threes at a 36.5 percent clip, which is bottom-12 in the NBA.
Miami is not good at defending the three, but Toronto is a bottom-seven unit in threes made per game and in the bottom three in percentage. If they beat you from deep, it means shots just happen to fall that game; it's not something to consistently be afraid of. At least, that's what the metrics tell us.
It is worth noting that the Heat shoot 40.4 percent from three at home compared to 37.6 percent on the road. This isn't uncommon, as teams typically play better at home. I'd be more concerned if the percentage dropped below 35.0 percent. Miami's 37.6 percent on the road is still in the top seven in the NBA. They also attempt and make more threes on the road.
Toronto scores a few more points at home and shoots a little better field goal percentage compared to the road. Nothing substantial sticks out that should make them over four-point favorites against a Heat team that I think is better than them. They are pretty evenly matched; I'll take the points with the Heat.
The Pick: Miami Heat +4.5 (-115 BetMGM)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) @ Detroit Pistons (219.5 total)
This under seems almost too obvious, which makes me a little nervous, but I'm sticking with it. I'll keep it brief. I like the first half under in this game. In the first half, Memphis and Detroit are both bottom-three scoring teams. They are in the bottom five in field goal and three-point percentage in the opening 24 minutes of games. If you take both their first-half averages, it comes out to 104.4, nicely below the total we have here.
The one thing Memphis does decently is hit threes. They are a top-ten first-half unit, hitting 6.9 threes per game. Detroit is a top-five unit in limiting three-point attempts and three-point percentage.
Neither team is inspiring on defense in the first half, but they aren't awful. I'd have more concern if they were the bottom two teams in points allowed, but that is not the case.
In terms of pace, Detroit is 14th, and Memphis is 18th. I wouldn't expect either team to fly up and down the court. The Grizzlies do attempt the eighth most shots with 4–7 seconds left in the shot clock. I'll be rooting for a lot of those kinds of possessions tonight.
The Pick: First Half Under 109.5 (-115 PointsBet)
Favorite ML Parlay: CLE + DAL + GSW (+117 FD)
Favorite Teaser: MIA +9 - HOU +8 (-110 FD)
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