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We are back with prop picks from Sleeper. On Thursday night football and last week, we held our 50% hit rate, making our total record through two weeks 6-6.
In light of the MLB playoffs, if we can manage to hit above 500 I’d be very happy. I’m hoping we can find some gems in this early slate of games. This week it appears that there are a surprising amount of hard-nosed matchups with good defenses.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and a lot of player prop picks for sites like Sleeper. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Under 246.5 passing yards, Texans @ Falcons
This selection might come as a surprise since Stroud has looked like the best rookie QB of this class. So far this season he has increasingly improved and showcased his pinpoint accuracy and timely coverage reads.
Unfortunately, he faces a Falcons team that tries to suffocate opposing offenses by maintaining possession. As a result, the Falcons are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, to go along with the 14th fewest rushing yards.
This defense also has a star corner in A.J. Terrell who will challenge Nico Collins, and star safety Jessie Bates III who will try and keep Nathaniel “Tank” Dell in check. With some offensive linemen hopefully returning this week, these teams may duel it out on the ground. As a result, this game may end quickly, limiting Stroud’s chances to find nearly 250 passing yards.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
Over 48.5 rushing yards, Dolphins vs. Giants
How quickly we forget that Mostert is the leader of this backfield. Since De’Von Achane has broken out, Mostert has lost his appeal to most football fans. However, I still believe he is the 1A in this backfield.
Last week, Mostert had a nightmare of a game, fumbling twice which changed the entire dynamic of their game against the Bills. Since he is a veteran, who has not had fumbling issues in the past, I believe he will step back into his role thai week.
This Giants team is allowing over 130 rushing yards per game so far this season. I bet Head Coach Mike McDaniel is salivating at the thought of scheming up running plays this week. I expect both Mostert and Achane to have good games this week. If that’s the case, 48.5 rushing yards seems low for Mostert.
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Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS)
Over 27.5 receiving yards, Saints @ Patriots
I am sorry for anyone who had to watch this Saints’ offense last week. With Derek Carr clearly playing through a shoulder injury, this offense was abysmal. Somehow Kamara’s return to the lineup resulted in an exceptional 13 receptions. Unfortunately, those receptions only amounted to 33 yards. Yikes.
I expect that Carr will still be limited by his injury, and will be looking to check it down early and often. This Patriots team knows how to rush the passer and can always scheme a defense to limit explosive passing plays.
If there is any takeaway from last week, it’s that this offense wants to run through Kamara. This might not be a great game to watch, but Kamara’s receiving yards or receptions are two overs you can set and forget.
Chris Boswell (K, PIT)
Over 1.5 made Field Goals, Steelers vs. Ravens
It’s no surprise that in a week full of tight matchups, I have two kicker props lined up for Sunday. The first was Brett Maher (K, LAR) and now we have Boswell joining the party.
These AFC North divisional games are always closer than we expect. Despite Kenny Pickett being expected to play after injuring his leg last week, the Steelers are only four-and-a-half-point underdogs at home.
I expect that both of these teams will be preparing for a grinding game, where points will be at a premium. Boswell has yet to miss a kick this season (knock on wood) and should have plenty of opportunities to kick field goals in this game.
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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