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We have made it. October baseball is the best kind of baseball. This month is by far and away my favorite sports month of the year. There is nothing like playoff baseball. If you have been to a playoff baseball game, the atmosphere is by far and away the best of any sporting event. Yesterday, I wrote an MLB Betting Picks Playoff Futures article. Be sure to check that out; there is still time to get some bets in. Today, we will discuss my three favorite bets for day one of playoff baseball.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 3, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Twins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TOR (+104)
TOR: Kevin Gausman | MIN: Pablo Lopez
We start today with a matchup between two very similar teams in everything they do. The Twins won the AL Central and went 87-75 to achieve that goal. They were 47-34 at home. The Blue Jays came in third in the AL East but had a better record than the Twins, going 89-73. They were 46-35 when playing on American soil this season. The Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games, and I don’t see the streak ending today.
Blue Jays will send ace Kevin Gausman to the bump in game one. Gausman was 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 31.1% K%. Pablo Lopez will toe the rubber for the Twins this afternoon. Lopez enters today's start with an 11-8 record with a 3.66 ERA and a 29.2% K%. Lopez has been excellent this season, but I think the best arm for this team is Sonny Gray.
At the plate, the Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+, .323 wOBA, and a .416 SLG. The Twins on the season have a 109 wRC+, .327 wOBA, and a .429 SLG. The Twins have a 27.0% K% against right-hand pitching this season. This is the difference in this game with the matchup with Kevin Gausman. In a tight game, execution will be critical, and with the amount of swing and miss in this Twins lineup, scoring runs this afternoon against Gausman and his massive strikeout rate will be tough.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+104) FanDuel Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-166)
MIA: Jesus Luzardo | PHI: Zack Wheeler
If you read my betting article yesterday, you know how much I love the Phillies in this series. Zack Wheeler will square off against Jesus Luzardo in game one of the three-game set. Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 26.9% K%. Since August 1, he is 5-1 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 25.0% K%. Wheeler had a 2.78 ERA in his six postseason starts last season and has plenty of experience pitching on the big stage.
He will square off against Jesus Luzardo in game one. Luzardo, since August 1, is 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 26.9% K%. Luzardo has a 5.91 ERA in his brief postseason experience with Oakland. The Phillies have handled southpaws well throughout the season. They have 108 wRC+, .333 wOBA, and a .450 SLG against the split this season. Since August 1, they have had a 122 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .481 SLG.
The Phillies have star power on the offensive side of the ball. They are led by Bryce Harper and his 142 wRC+, Kyle Schwarber with 119 wRC+, and Trea Turner with 108 wRC+. The Phillies are 49-32 at home, and Citizens Bank Park will be rocking tonight. The Phillies on the moneyline is my favorite bet of the night.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-166) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Brewers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIL (-180)
ARZ: Brandon Pfaadt | MIL: Corbin Burnes
The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field in our third and final bet of the day. The Brewers went 92-70 and won the NL Central. They went 49-32 at home. Their opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks, went 84-78 and snuck into the playoffs as the sixth seed after getting swept by the Astros.
The Brewers will send their ace Corbin Burnes to the mound in game one. Burnes went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 25.5% K% this season. The Diamondbacks will send rookie Brandon Pfaadt to the bump. Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in his first taste of the big leagues and will now get the ball in game one of the Wild Card series.
I love attacking a rookie in-game during his playoff debut. I will be all over the Brewers moneyline tomorrow and the Brewers in this series with Freddy Peralta in game two.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-180) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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