EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (9/30/23) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 7

Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to the 23-24 season! Finally, a new season is here and we can welcome back our beloved Futbol. Many clubs have made big moves this offseason to help bolster their cup chances and chances of getting a European spot for next season. Will we see a new title winner this season or will Liverpool and Manchester City continue to battle it out for the top spot?

The top two favorites this weekend are Manchester City -360 at Wolverhampton +900 and Newcastle United -300 vs Burnley +700. I will guide you through this six-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter @df_solutions, or in our Discord chat rooms.

EPL DFS Goalies

Goalies

Alphonse Areola - DK $5.7K || FD $13

Opponent - Sheffield United

Areola is the keeper of choice this weekend to record a clean sheet. By this point, readers should not be unfamiliar with Sheffield’s poor season and poor form on both ends of the pitch. As the worst club in both Goals For Per 90 and Shots For Per 90, Areola has a fair chance of collecting one of the only clean sheets of the weekend. However, if he concedes at all, his value is immediately shot and it could plummet your lineup. Nevertheless, he is going against the worst offense in the top flight and in his last five domestic appearances, he has 26 saves, 9 goals conceded and 1 penalty save. 

Thomas Kaminski - DK $4.2K || FD $9

Opponent - Everton

With the plethora of ‘favorites’ playing on the slate, there is not much of an opportunity to pay down at keeper. However, Kaminski is the perfect pay-down candidate. In five domestic contests this season, Kaminski has 17 saves and 11 goals conceded. Now consider the fact that Luton Town are playing at Goodison Park and Everton is the third-worst club in Goals For Per 90 – 0.83 –, but they sit outside the bottom ten in Shots For Per 90 – 14.17 –. This sets up the perfect narrative for Kaminski to build a solid floor from saves this weekend with the likelihood that he concedes one goal. You may not be able to find better value.                              

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pope (DK $5.9K || FD $14), Ramsdale (DK $5.6K || FD $12)

EPL DFS Forwards

Callum Wilson - DK $10.1K || FD $20

Opponent - Burnley FC

It is hard to pinpoint exactly who will start this weekend with the FA Cup midweek, however, Wilson seems to be the candidate to do so. He started at the weekend in the gigantic 8-0 victory over Sheffield United and played 69 minutes while adding a goal and taking 5 shots. Since he started at the weekend, teammate Alexander Isak should start in the FA Cup against Manchester City, which leaves Wilson back in the lineup at the weekend. In Wilson’s last five domestic appearances, he has 3 goals, 11 shots, 1 created chance, 1 cross and 1 clearance. He doesn’t generate peripherals outside of his shot volume and that alone can be suspect at times, leaving him as a goal-dependent forward. Burnley has had an underwhelming return to the Premier League – yet to win a match – and they are the second-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 2.6 –, the third-worst in Created Chances Against Per 90 – 12.8 – and the fourth-worst in In-the-Box Goals Against Per 90 – 1.8 –, all resulting in the fourth-worst Penalty Area Defense. With the formation and style Newcastle plays and Burnley's porous defense, this leaves Wilson as one of the top strikers of the weekend.   

Michail Antonio - DK $5.5K || FD $17

Opponent - Sheffield United

To counter one of the most expensive strikers on the slate, we have Hammers striker, Michail Antonio. Antonio has yet to start the season as many expected with 2 goals, 6 shots, 2 created chances, 4 crosses, 4 tackles and 1 interception through the last five domestic appearances. However, there is no better time than now at home against the league’s worst defense. Sheffield United is the worst in Goals Against, Shots Against, Created Chances Against, Big Chances Created Against, In-the-Box Shots Against and In-the-Box Goals Against – all per 90 – resulting in them also being the worst in Penalty Area Defense. West Ham has run a few different formations this season, all resulting in funneling the attack through the striker. Antonio has the opportunity to surpass Callum Wilson – mentioned above – as the top striker of the weekend.                 

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Saka (DK $10.8K || FD $23), Alvarez (DK $9.1K || FD $21)

EPL DFS Midfielders

James Ward-Prowse - DK $8.7K || FD $20

Opponent - Sheffield United

To no surprise, Ward-Prowse now makes it into the article alongside teammate, Michail Antonio. As mentioned, Sheffield is the worst in both Created Chances Against and Big Chances Created Against Per 90 and Ward-Prowse is the king of both, especially when he is on set-pieces for the Hammers. In his five domestic appearances this season, he has 2 goals, 3 assists, 6 shots, 8 created chances, 24 crosses, 20 corners, 6 tackles, 10 interceptions, 9 clearances and 3 blocks. He is doing it all for West Ham and in a prime matchup like this, he is capable of anything. The cost to acquire won’t be for the faint of heart, but by pairing him with his much more ‘affordable’ teammate, they can prove to be a formidable duo. 

Dwight McNeil - DK $8.8K || FD $16

Opponent - Luton Town

It is almost as if it were fate. In Everton’s first realistic matchup that McNeil starts in this season and they have a resounding win. The winger had 1 assist, 3 shots, 1 created chance, 7 crosses, 1 corner, 2 interceptions and 1 clearance. Dating it back to his first three domestic matches of the season – 2 starts –, he has 1 assist, 6 shots, 1 created chance, 7 crosses, 1 corner, 1 tackle, 3 interceptions and 2 clearances. It is very clear that 90 percent of McNeil’s production from his tiny sample size of form came in the big 3-1 win at Gtech Community Stadium and it remains unknown if he can replicate that performance in the future. However, Luton Town is bad to begin with and even worse when traveling. So far this season, they are the third-worst in both Goals Against Per 90 – 2.2 – and In-the-Box Goals Against Per 90 – 2.2 – and they are in the bottom ten in every other meaningful metric. If there was another match for McNeil to continue his newly found form, it is this weekend at home against Luton Town.                                              

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Fernandes (DK $9.9K || FD $22), Doughty (DK $6.6K || FD $10)

EPL DFS Defenders

Kieran Trippier - DK $7.5K || FD $16

Opponent - Burnley FC

Trippier is coming off a major performance where he had 3 assists, 5 created chances, 6 crosses, 3 corners, 2 tackles and 1 block in an 8-0 win over Sheffield United. Now he and the rest of the Magpies get yet another terrific matchup at St. James’ Park. The Clarets are the second-worst offense only behind article favorites, Sheffield United. Burnley is the second-worst in Goals For Per 90, Big Chances Created Per 90 and Big Chances Converted Per 90, as well as the third-worst in Created Chances Per 90. Their defense has been highlighted above – check Callum Wilson highlight – and Trippier will have every opportunity in this matchup to produce on both ends of the ball and perhaps extend his point streak to two matches. 

Emerson - DK $4.3K || FD $11

Opponent - Luton Town

Emerson is nothing more than a speculative play at this point and it is unfortunate when considering his price to acquire is more than affordable. The leftback in his last five domestic fixtures, has 3 shots, 3 created chances, 2 crosses, 12 tackles, 8 interceptions, 16 clearances and 1 block. Yes, he does have great peripherals, however, his best performances come in big matches where he is required to play defense for the majority of the 90 minutes. Furthermore, in any match where he could play more ‘freely’ on the flank, he has disappointed managers and Sheffield United will either be a big success or a big disappointment. The Blades like to play a 3-5-2 formation which could force Emerson to play honestly and help him rack up peripherals and this is the hope. Although, there is still the chance that he will continue his poor ‘Fantasy Form’.                        

Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Zinchenko (DK $4.2K || FD $8), Ahmedhodzic (DK $2.8K || FD $11)

Corner Takers

• AFC Bournemouth: Cook/Christie
• Arsenal: Saka
• Everton: McNeil
• Luton Town: Doughty/Giles
• Manchester United: Fernandes
• Crystal Palace: Eze
• Newcastle United: Trippier
• Burnley: Tresor/Brownhill
• West Ham United: Ward-Prowse
• Sheffield United: Norwood/Hamer
• Wolverhampton: Neto
• Manchester City: Alvarez

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off. Good luck in all of your contests today!

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