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Peak draft season is here and it is time to complete all your research and compile it into a league-winning fantasy squad. There are various draft strategies out there and different strategies can all lead to a title, so lean into whatever you are most comfortable with this draft season and add as much talent to your team as possible through the draft.
Today, we are going to lean into a pair of Round 6/7 wide receivers and determine who is the better draft pick. These two guys have upside for different reasons but also a fair share of question marks, which leads to their later ADP in drafts this season.
Both Tyler Lockett and Marquise Brown have had huge games over their careers and are going anywhere in the back end of Round 6 through Round 7 in drafts right now. If you’re on the clock in Round 7 and looking at wide receiver, which way should you lean?
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of WRs Tyler Lockett and Marquise Brown and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
WR29 - ADP: 72nd Overall
Tyler Lockett was a steal in drafts last season, as he slipped as far as Rounds 9 and 10 with uncertainty behind Geno Smith taking over as Seattle’s QB1. Needless to say, the Geno experiment worked out in Seattle and Lockett strung together a great season where he finished as the WR13 overall in both PPR and half-PPR leagues.
Last season, Lockett consistently saw targets as he averaged 7.3 looks a game with Smith consistently looking his way in short-yardage situations. While he had a few bust games in typical Lockett fashion, he was largely a consistent performer over the course of the season.
Looking ahead to 2023, things could be changing in the Seahawks’ pecking order in the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, largely considered the most talented receiver in the 2023 class, was selected in Round 1 and has a similar prototype to Lockett, who is now 30 years old. Smith-Njigba has already been impressing in camp and preseason and is a legitimate contender to lead the team in targets.
The addition of Smith-Njigba hurts Lockett more than it hurts D.K. Metcalf, as Smith-Njigba could emerge as Geno Smith’s go-to target in short-yardage situations and could have a heavy target share. Lockett should not receive as many targets per game this season and we should expect more inconsistent results in 2023.
While Seattle passed at the 15th-highest rate in the league last season, right in the middle of the pack, those numbers could come down a bit in 2023. With another year of experience under the offensive line’s belts and using a second-round selection on UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet to pair with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield, Pete Carroll could easily deviate back towards more of a run-heavy offense. If running at a higher rate, supporting three wide receivers for consistent fantasy production is not going to be an easy task.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
WR33 - ADP: 80th Overall
Marquise Brown had an unreal start to 2022, averaging a whopping 10.6 targets per game through six weeks before suffering an injury that knocked him out for the next five. Upon returning, Brown was the second option in the offense with DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.
Brown averaged a more than respectable 7.2 targets per game over the last six games of the season but operated as more of a short-yardage option rather than the deep threat he has typically been over his career.
Heading into 2023, Hopkins is no longer in Arizona and Brown is undoubtedly the top option in the passing game. The biggest question mark is the matter of who will be throwing him the ball. Kyler Murray tore his ACL late into the 2022 season and will not be ready for Week 1, leaving veteran Colt McCoy as the likely starter with rookie Clayton Tune potentially pushing for playing time.
While Arizona’s quarterback situation is the worst in the league, Brown is guaranteed to be receiving heavy target shares as long as he is on the field. He has shown versatility operating as both a deep threat and a short-yardage guy over his career but has also been banged up and missed extensive time (five games in 2022).
While McCoy and Tune likely won’t be throwing deep passes, they will be throwing the ball as Arizona projects to be playing from behind in many games this season. Brown projects as a guy who may not score a lot of touchdowns, but should be penciled in for a safe 9-12 targets per game every week. In fantasy football, volume is king and you won’t find another player with this much volume at this point in drafts.
Fantasy Football Verdict
Both Tyler Lockett and Marquise Brown offer more question marks than answers heading into 2023, but by Round 7 you are likely drafting your WR3 or WR4. Lockett has more weekly upside given that he is playing in what should be a more efficient offense, but Brown has the weekly safe floor as the top option in Arizona’s passing game.
For me at this point, volume is king. Brown could nearly double Lockett’s target share and is a much safer weekly play at WR3 or flex. Plus if Kyler Murray does return down the stretch, he could be exploding for huge weeks like he did over the first six weeks in 2022. During that same stretch, it is likely that Smith-Njigba has emerged as the go-to guy for Geno Smith and is eating up all of the targets in Seattle.
Pick Marquise Brown over Tyler Lockett in 2023 fantasy drafts. It’s the safer and higher-upside pick in my opinion.
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