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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 13, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 54-40-3 (+2.98 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Twins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TB -190
CLE: Tanner Bibee | TB: Zach Eflin
I'll start things up for this Sunday afternoon slate down in Tampa Bay, where the Guardians and Rays will close out their series.
It'll be Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.92 ERA) taking the ball for Cleveland this afternoon. It's been quite the impressive debut season for Bibee. Nevertheless, he is due for some regression, bringing in a 3.56 xERA and 4.36 xFIP. While those numbers aren't bad, he does bring in a projected 4.26 SIERA today against a Rays lineup that sees right-handed pitching well. They bring in a .346 projected wOBA against the rookie today.
Zach Eflin (12-6, 3.34 ERA) will take the ball for his 23rd start of the season for Tampa Bay. It's been somewhat of a renaissance-type of season for Eflin, an expected stat darling. He brings a 2.91 xERA and 3.16 xFIP into this matchup against Cleveland, who themselves project to just a .290 wOBA against him this afternoon. Eflin's starts have been a metaphorical roller coaster of late, but I expect him to come out on top of things today.
I do have a slight "Sunday scary" concern here with the Rays, who will be boarding a flight headed out to San Francisco following this one. However, I'll back them in the first five innings here, grabbing the F5 run line at -128 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rays F5 -0.5 (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.78 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -390
COL: Kyle Freeland | LAD: Julio Urias
I'll wrap up the weekend out in Los Angeles, as the Rockies and Dodgers close the book on their weekend set.
Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies today. Freeland, who comes into this one 4-12 with a 4.84 ERA, is due for some even further regression given his 5.48 xERA and 5.13 xFIP. While Los Angeles doesn't project exceptionally well (.326 wOBA), Freeland's projected 4.37 SIERA does give me optimism the Dodgers jump on him early and often, leading throughout the majority of the game.
Julio Urias (9-6, 4.39 ERA) will take the ball for his 18th start of the season. Like the aforementioned Zach Eflin, he's had a bit of a roller coaster type of form of late. In two starts (7/19 @ Baltimore and 7/25 vs. Toronto), he allowed 11 runs across 11 innings. In the start before that rough patch and two starts since, he's tossed 17 scoreless innings, recording the win in all three starts. He projects to a 3.88 SIERA against a Rockies lineup that projects to a brutal .249 wOBA against him in this one.
I don't often take these F5/FG moneyline parlays, but my model projects total domination from the Dodgers today. While Colorado will head home to welcome the Diamondbacks to Coors Field on Monday, the Dodgers will have off Monday before welcoming in the Brewers for a three-game set on Tuesday. I'm fully expecting a Dodgers blowout here.
Pick: Game Parlay: Dodgers F5 ML/Dodgers ML (-160), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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