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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 12-14-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for July 22, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -115
NYM: Max Scherzer| BOS: James Paxton
We'll begin at Fenway, where the Red Sox host the Mets. Game one of the series was suspended by rain and is set to resume today. The pseudo doubleheader Saturday is likely to result in some everyday bats sitting out game two, potentially watering down the offensive upside of these two lineups. That factor, combined with a strong pitching matchup, makes me skeptical that these teams can surpass the 9.5 run total.
Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Mets. He's experienced something of an up-and-down campaign but still carries a decent 3.99 ERA through 17 starts. Scherzer is also coming off his best start of the season, firing seven shutout innings and surrendering just one hit against the Dodgers. At nearly 39 years old, it's reasonable to assume that some of the 2023 struggles are real regression.
Scherzer remains one of the league's better pitchers with a 3.52 xERA, .213 xBA, and 27.4% strikeout rate. The Red Sox aren't the easiest opponent, scoring five runs per game on the season. Still, they carry just a middling 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
For the Red Sox, James Paxton takes the hill, looking to continue his unexpected rebound campaign. He boasts a 3.51 ERA through 11 starts this season. The underlying numbers are even more supportive of Paxton's strong performance, including a 3.32 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, .214 xBA, .285 xwOBA, .365 xSLG, and 28.8% strikeout rate.
The Mets do not present a particularly challenging matchup for Paxton. They carry an awful 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the beginning of June, including a .653 OPS and 26% strikeout rate. The Mets are trending in the wrong direction with Starling Marte hitting the injured list, Tommy Pham injuring his groin, and Pete Alonso stuck in a slump.
The pitching in this game is undeniably strong. Scherzer and Paxton are each capable of shutdown performances. Even if they do take on some damage, I'm still confident this game total doesn't hit 10 runs.
Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Angels
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAA -180
PIT: Osvaldo Bido| LAA: Reid Detmers
Moving on to the late game in Anaheim. The Pirates and Angels are two teams on opposite trajectories. Pittsburgh continues to sink further into last place in the NL Central, while the Angels are fighting to keep contention in the AL Wild Card race. This isn't exactly a marquee matchup, but the gap between these two teams is worth keying in on today.
Osvaldo Bido takes the mound for Pittsburgh, carrying a 5.00 ERA through his first seven outings. That includes a weak 4.26 xERA, 5.23 xFIP, .259 xBA, 9.4% walk rate, and .320 xwOBA. Bido hasn't pitched more than four innings in any outing since June 24 and hasn't pitched more than six innings in any appearance this season. Bido isn't likely to pitch deep on Saturday, and the Pirates' bullpen holds a subpar 4.33 ERA. Meanwhile, the Angels' offense has been surging lately. Since the beginning of June, they have posted a phenomenal 125 wRC+ and .823 OPS against right-handed pitching.
On the flip side, Reid Detmers gets the start for the Angels. His surface numbers are middling, sporting a 4.42 ERA through 17 starts. Although his 3.90 xFIP suggests he's pitching much more than that. Detmers' performance has been quite consistent, having surrendered more than four earned runs only once all season. The Pirates present an easier matchup. Since the beginning of June, Pittsburgh has posted an 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, including a .664 OPS and .295 wOBA.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Based on the caliber of starting pitching and the recent success of their offenses, I'm comfortable siding with the Angels in this matchup.
Pick: Angels -1.5 Run Line (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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