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Sundays are great days for player props! I usually go heavier on props than game outcomes on the weekends because of the nature of these games -- they tend to be a bit unpredictable and we always see some players rested, too. We have another game across the pond today as the Cards and Cubs square off in England while the Angels finish out their series in Denver after scoring 25 (yes, you read that correctly) runs last night in a thumping of the Rockies.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, June 25, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Eury Perez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Perez appears to be rounding into form and putting some of his rookie struggles with control behind him. He is coming off his best start as a pro as he whiffed nine Blue Jays without walking anyone, shutting them out for six frames on just three hits. He shut down Seattle in the start before that with six strikeouts and just one walk over six strong innings, too.
The impressive rookie now carries a 27% K% and a strong 13.7% SwStr% on the season. He gets a relatively weak-hitting Pirates lineup today. While they are just average when it comes to Ks, I feel good about his recent form and his improved efficiency has allowed him to pitch deeper into games than he was earlier in the year.
Hunter Brown OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Sometimes you have to be aggressive and attack good offenses with good pitchers and the Dodgers are one team that we should be doing that against. My hat goes off to my buddy Kipp Heisterman, who recommended the Astros starter Ronel Blanco yesterday over 4.5 strikeouts as he was able to rack up six against the Dodgers over six solid frames. And my apologies to Blanco, but Hunter Brown is a better pitcher.
Brown's 27% strikeout rate is second only to Tyler Glasnow on this slate and tied with Eury Perez. He has been a bit inconsistent in his rookie campaign but has shown the ability to strike out major-league hitters at an elite level. Even in some of his recent starts where he has struggled with run prevention, he still piled up some big K numbers (seven strikeouts and six earned runs vs. the Mets, eight strikeouts and five earned runs vs. the Twins).
We simply shouldn't be getting Brown at 5.5 when he's facing teams with a below-average strikeout rate and the Dodgers are whiffing around 25% of the time over their last two weeks' worth of games.
Kyle Bradish OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
Bradish might be one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now. His ERA stands at 3.88 but is inflated due to just one bad start in which he allowed seven earned runs in only 2.1 innings against Boston back in April. He's allowed more than three earned runs just once since then and has been pitching really well especially of late as he struck out 10 Brewers, shut out the Blue Jays (only one strikeout), and then struck out eight Rays for the win in his last start.
I was ready to bet on him at 5.5 if we were getting good odds, but his number has dipped to 4.5 with juice and I'm happy to oblige. The Mariners have a top-five strikeout rate against RHP and a team that I often target with opposing starters. Bradish hasn't been walking guys this season and his slider (as you can see in the Pitching Ninja vids) has been a fantastic out pitch.
Bailey Ober OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
Ober is my featured athlete on the cover because I love these odds. I should add that I think his prop is the riskiest of the bunch, which makes sense in terms of why the odds are so solid.
Not a lot of casual fans probably know what type of strong season Ober is having in Minnesota, but the big righty (he's 6'7") has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP through his first 11 starts this year. He's been incredibly consistent, going 5+ innings in every start and he has struck out 6+ batters in seven of those 11 starts.
He has a strong, but only slightly above average K% of 23.2% but his 12.4% SwStr% indicates that he could still improve on that this year and be closer to a 25% guy. Detroit whiffed eight times against last night's starter Pablo Lopez (we had him over 6.5 K, don't worry), and is vulnerable against good pitchers, though they grade out as a fairly neutral matchup.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
LaMonte Wade Jr. OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-120)
The Giants have a fantastic matchup against Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks today and I had a hard time deciding which lefty slugger to pick here as I have an interest in both Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson props, too.
Nelson has some terrible splits against lefties this year, allowing a .418 wOBA and .259 ISO to southpaw sluggers. He's walking them 13% of the time and striking them out at just a 12% rate, too. He's been very reliant on his four-seamer, throwing it 58% of the time and the Giants lefties all hit fastballs well.
Wade should lead off and he's hit this prop in four of his last five games. This is some pretty solid value for a leadoff hitter for a team that is implied to score five runs today. We usually see hitters in similar spots up around -140 to -150 odds.
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