PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the PGA Championship (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the PGA Championship (Round 1). The year's second major is already upon us, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Oak Hill Country Club for the 2023 PGA Championship! This storied venue is no stranger to hosting some of the biggest tournaments in the sport, but 2023's edition of the PGA Championship will help the club usher in a new era, with Andrew Greene's 2019 remodel taking center stage and restoring the original visions Donald Ross had for this property over 100 years ago. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, May 18.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Jon Rahm MORE than Cameron Smith - Birdies or Better Matchup

Despite Cam Smith's recent run of Top 10's on the LIV Tour, his combination of abysmal total driving splits and lackluster long-iron play at Augusta makes him one of my main fades around Oak Hill this week. 3-4" rough and penal fairway bunkers will not make for very friendly confines for a driver as inaccurate as Cam has been. 200-yard approach shots from off the fairway will make it very difficult for him to create birdie chances.

Rahm, on the other hand, excels in all of my key ball-striking metrics. Jon rates out as the 4th best all-around driver of the ball in this field, and is the only player in this field to rank inside the top three in both of my key proximity ranges (175-200 and 200+). Interestingly enough, Rahm also outpaces Cam on bentgrass putting since the start of 2020 (15th vs 20th).

You won't find a more confident player in the world than Jon Rahm right now. With four wins and only one finish worse than 15th to start the 2023 campaign, I fully anticipate him carrying this momentum into Oak Hill and having no trouble dispatching Cameron Smith in Round 1.

Taylor Montgomery LESS than 36.5 Holes Played

We picked on Montgomery's ball-striking woes last week to cash his U12.5 GIR's on Thursday, and I have no hesitation in continuing to fade the UNLV alum this week. Oak Hill will present a much stiffer test to Montgomery than the Byron Nelson did, and Taylor's combination of inaccurate driving and abysmal long-iron play will do him no favors around a venue like this.

Montgomery rates outside the top 150 in weighted proximity, and outside the top 130 in SG: APP, Good Drive %, and Total Driving. That kind of ball-striking profile puts a lot of pressure on your short game, and Taylor has seen some noticeable fall-off in those departments since he burst onto the scene last fall.

He's been a below-average putter over his last three stroke-play starts, and he notably lost over half a stroke to the field on the greens at last year's U.S. Open (also a northeastern Bentgrass course). If these trends don't turn around in a hurry, Montgomery will be in for a long two days in Rochester this week.

Collin Morikawa LESS than 15.0 Pars or Better

As blinded as I typically am by my fandom, Oak Hill presents a tougher test than I feel Collin is ready for this week. His below-average driving distance will not be well suited for a 7400-yard golf course in cold, wet conditions, and he worryingly hit just 16/28 fairways in two rounds at Quail Hollow - a golf course that would have been much more forgiving to tee shots than the 27-yard wide ribbons of fairway on offer at Oak Hill this week.

The iron play remains stellar, and should give him his fair share of birdie chances, but as we saw at the Wells Fargo, even the best iron player on the planet needs some help from the rest of his game. Collin looked about as shaky over the putter as I've ever seen from him, and the recent short-game splits don't do much to inspire confidence either (104th in SG: ARG and 127th in Scrambling).

I believe those deficiencies will be preyed upon as much as we'll see from any venue all year, and as such, I don't understand why PrizePicks has him posted at the same Par or Better line as guys like Rahm, Scheffler, Rory, Koepka, Cantlay, Xander, etc. The floor has honestly never felt lower for Collin heading into a Major Championship.

Other Recommendations

• Collin Morikawa LESS than Rory McIlroy - Birdies or Better Matchup
• Xander Schauffele MORE than 11.5 Greens in Regulation
• Bryson DeChambeau MORE than 36.5 Holes Played

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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