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Happy Friday and Happy Cinco de Mayo, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, May 5, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 17-11 (+3.03 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -168
BOS: Chris Sale | PHI: Zack Wheeler
We kept it rolling on Monday, grabbing another 2-0 sweep while bringing home 1.68 units. We'll look to get the weekend going with a bang as we start with a first five-inning play in Philly.
The visiting Red Sox will send Chris Sale to the mound. I've backed Sale (2-2, 6.75 ERA) in numerous articles, and...well it hasn't worked out for me great. He did put together a strong start in his last time out, allowing just one earned run across 6.1 innings versus Cleveland.
I can't say he'll have a similar output today against a Phillies lineup that projects to a .349 wOBA despite being in the bottom third of the league in both wOBA (.307) and wRC+ (89) against lefties. They do get a significant boost since it'll be this guy's first game at Citizens Bank Park since the 2022 World Series...
The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound. Wheeler's numbers (3-1, 3.86 ERA) are a bit better than how he's actually pitched this season, at least in my opinion. He did throw six shutout innings against the Astros last Saturday but has seemingly been victim to the "one big inning" in many of his starts this season.
It'll be tough sledding this afternoon against a Red Sox lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA (.352) and fifth in wRC+ (120) against righties. They project to a .354 wOBA in this one.
We can get the first five over (4.5) at even or plus-money on basically every sportsbook, but we'll grab it on FanDuel at +104.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (+104), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.04 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SD +100
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | SD: Joe Musgrove
We'll look for a sweep as we head out west to San Diego while we take another look at a first five moneyline. I backed Blake Snell and the Padres on Monday, but I'll be on the other side of things tonight.
I'll be backing Clayton Kershaw (5-1, 1.89 ERA) and the Dodgers, who are in the middle of a six-game win streak. Kershaw has been excellent this season and now gets to take on a Padres team that he allowed just one earned run in 12 innings across two starts last season. The Padres project to just a 23.67% hard contact rate against the southpaw today, and Kershaw himself projects to a 2.83 xFIP.
On the other side of the ball, the Padres will be sending Joe Musgrove (1-0, 10.80 ERA) to the mound. It's been an ugly start for Musgrove, as the numbers clearly indicate. He's coming off a no-decision against the Giants where he allowed seven earned, including three home runs, in just 3.1 innings last Saturday. He projects to a solid 3.47 xFIP in this one, but the Dodgers project to a 31.27% hard contact rate here.
The Dodgers are hot and are looking for some vengeance following the 2022 NLDS where San Diego took three of four before eventually falling to the aforementioned Phillies in the NLCS. It's worth noting that despite having an outing where he didn't allow a run, Musgrove didn't record a win against the Dodgers last season across his three starts. We'll grab the Dodgers' F5 moneyline, which is -128 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Moneyline (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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