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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 23, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 13-7-0 (+4.69 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -172
BOS: Brayan Bello | MIL: Corbin Burnes
I'll start off this Sunday slate out in Milwaukee. We'll be taking a look at a pair of NRFIs today, the first of which takes place in a matchup between Brayan Bello and Corbin Burnes.
Bello (0-1, 16.88 ERA) got roughed up in his first start against the Angels on Monday. He allowed eight hits and five runs in just 2.2 innings, with him allowing the Angels to plant a four spot in the first inning. However, he was really good on the road in the first inning in 2022, allowing a run just once in six starts away from home. He'll take on a Brewers offense that has scored in just one first-inning run across seven games at Miller Park.
Corbin Burnes (2-1, 4.76 ERA) has definitely been trending up over his last few starts, allowing just two runs in his last 13.1 innings pitched. He's allowed a first-inning run in just one of his four starts this season and takes on a Red Sox lineup that's scored in just one of eight first innings away from Fenway.
We're getting solid odds here on FanDuel, where the first inning under sits at -120. My model gives the NRFI a 65.09% chance of hitting, or implied odds of -186.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Giants
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: SF +100
NYM: Tylor Megill | SF: Ross Stripling
We'll head out west for Sunday Night Baseball for our second NRFI of the day. The Mets and Giants will duke it out behind starters Tylor Megill and Ross Stripling.
Megill (3-1, 3.00 ERA) will take the ball for the Mets tonight and has been pretty dang good thus far in the year. He's been... not so good in the first inning though, allowing a tally in one of two road starts, and two of four starts overall. However, he only allowed a run once in the first inning in nine starts last season, five of those starts coming on the road. The Giants have scored a first-inning run in just two of eight games at home this season.
The Giants will be sending Ross Stripling to the mound tonight. Stripling (0-1, 7.30 ERA), will be making his fifth appearance on the young season, but just his second start. He did hold the Yankees scoreless in his lone start this season, all the way back on April 2. He'll look to do the same tonight against the Mets, a team that's scored a first-inning run in just two of 15 road games so far in 2023.
We're getting really good odds on FanDuel here, at -102. My model gives the NRFI a 66.99% chance of hitting, or implied odds of -203.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-102) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.02 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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