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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Friday, April 21.
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Today's Betting Overview - Nuggets @ Timberwolves
The Nuggets take on the Timberwolves on Friday, April 21 at Target Center, Minneapolis. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets (53-29) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
- Date: Friday, April 21
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Nuggets @ Timberwolves
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Nuggets & Timberwolves Key Injuries
Nuggets
- Nikola Jokic (Probable)- Wrist
Timberwolves
- Rudy Gobert (Questionable)- Back
- Jaylen Nowell (Questionable)- Knee
- Naz Reid (Out)- Wrist
- Jaden McDaniels (Out)- Hand
Denver Nuggets - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Timberwolves by a score of 122-113 in Game 2, the Nuggets are riding a three-game win streak. Jamal Murray led the way in scoring with 40 points. Not only did Denver win the game, but they also covered the spread as 8.0-point favorites.
With the win, the team has moved to 53-29, placing them first in the Western Conference. So far this season, they have gone 34-7 at home and 19-22 on the road. The Nuggets have a three-game win streak against the spread and have an overall ATS mark of 46-37.
Over their last five games, the Nuggets are averaging 113 points per game. For the season, Denver is ranked 17th at 115.8 points per contest. Denver's three-point shooting numbers are among the best in the NBA, as the team ranks first in the league, having hit 37.9% of their looks from deep. But given that they are just 32nd in possessions per game, their overall scoring numbers are closer to the league average. Currently, the Nuggets are fourth in overall field goal percentage.
This season, the Denver defense ranks eighth in the league, giving up an average of 110.4 points per game. Opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 47.1% and have knocked down 34.4% of their three-point attempts. The Nuggets also rank first in the NBA for defensive rebounds. However, when it comes to forcing turnovers, Denver is only 20th, with 13.8 turnovers forced per game.
Minnesota Timberwolves - NBA Betting Analysis
The Timberwolves enter today's game having lost two straight, including a 122-113 loss to the Nuggets in Game 2. Anthony Edwards led the team in scoring with 41 points on 60.9% shooting. Going into the game, oddsmakers had Minnesota as the 8.0-point underdog, resulting in an ATS loss for the team.
Now, the Timberwolves' overall record sits at 42-40, placing them eighth in the Western Conference. The team's current record at home is 22-19 and 20-21 on the road. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in two straight games and have an overall ATS record of 42-44.
Currently, the Timberwolves are ranked 16th among all NBA teams with an average of 115.8 points per game. However, if their recent performance is any indication, they may drop in the rankings soon. Over their last five games, they have averaged just 105 points per contest.
In today's game, we will likely see the Timberwolves attempting to control the pace of play. They average 101.2 possessions per game, ranking eighth in the league. Minnesota has also been strong with their outside shooting this season, ranking sixth in three-point shooting percentage at 36.5%. Their per-game assist average of 26.2 is 12th in the NBA.
This season, Minnesota's defense is eighth in the league, allowing an average of 110.4 points per contest. So far, opposing teams have hit 47.1% of their field goal attempts and 34.4% from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves have also been a strong defensive-rebounding unit, sitting first in the NBA. However, in terms of turnovers forced, Minnesota is just 40th at 14.8 per game.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
Today's matchup will be the sixth game of the season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. So far, the Nuggets have the leg up in the series at 4-2. In the most recent game between the two teams, the Nuggets won by a score of 122-113, along with covering the spread as 8.0-point favorites. The over/under line going into the game was 222.0 points, which the teams exceeded.
In the Nuggets' previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 against the spread. In their last three road contests, they are 1-2 ATS and 0-3 straight up. Their previous 10 games have an over/under mark of 3-7 with an average of 221 points per contest.
Across Minnesota's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up. As the underdog, the Timberwolves are 0-3 straight up on an average scoring differential of -15 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 3-0. Their previous 10 games have ended in an average of 224 points per game and an over/under mark of 3-7.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: DEN -2.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 222.5
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