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Nestor Cortes 2023 MLB Player Outlook: Regression Coming, But Still a Worthwhile SP Pick
2 years agoNew York Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes showed signs of actually being an outstanding pitcher by posting a strong 26.5% K% and 6.2% BB% in 2022. It isn't easy to put up a K-BB% above 20% over an entire season. The downside with Cortes is that he may have benefited from some ball-in-play luck. His 34% ground-ball rate is meager- especially for a guy pitching in Yankees Stadium half the time (although being a left-hander helps a little bit there). He was one of the most successful pitchers in the league at keeping fly balls in the park (and 8.2% HR/FB per FanGraphs - much better than this career 12.7% mark). The xFIP was more than a run above the ERA because of this at 3.63. Cortes is tough to rank in 2023, given the good fortune we just talked about and the fact that his great season was unexpected. However, the 20% K-BB% is the most crucial factor here, making Cortes a fine pick with his ADP near 115.
