RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 12th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/12/23
The year 2023 has started off with less than desirable outcomes and at times, games can be much harder to predict than normal. Tonight we ramp it up further with a 12-game slate and only one team playing on a back-to-back, Nashville. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Carolina with 4.3, Tampa Bay with 4.1 and Colorado with 4 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this twelve-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Igor Shesterkin- DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
There are quite a few ‘good’ plays tonight, however, Shesterkin sticks out among the bunch. Despite losing 3 of his last 5 games – 2 in overtime –, Shesterkin is still in good form, posting south of 0.900 Save Percentage just once in that span. He is also going against the Stars tonight at Madison Square Garden and Roope Hintz did not make the trip to New York on Tuesday, effectively ruling him out barring a last-minute plane trip for the center. This spells good news for Shesterkin and company, as Dallas will be down their top playmaker. Shesterkin could see a ceiling game tonight as well thanks to Dallas’s performance over their last 10 games. They are currently sitting as the ninth-best team in Shots For Per 60 – 31.4 –, but they are the third-worst team in Goals For Per 60 – 1.59 –. You can’t beat a spot like this.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Kochetkov (DK $8.5K || FD $8.1K), Vasilevskiy (DK $8.3K || FD $8.6K)
Centers
Nathan MacKinnon-DK $9.3K || FD $10.3K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
It is fair to expect MacKinnon to be the highest-owned player across all competitions tonight. The center is going against one of the worst defenses in the league and he is currently riding a 2-game point streak, where he has amassed 2 goals, 1 assist, 14 shots and 1 blocked shot. Yes, he has taken 14 shots in his last 2 games – 1 game with 11 shots –. Chicago is the eleventh-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 2.91 – and the fifth-worst team in both Shots Against Per 60 – 33.46 – and Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.4 –. Despite losing Mikko Rantanen on his line, MacKinnon is still producing and his shot volume should start to climb swapping shooter Rantanen out for playmaker Rodrigues.
Juuso Parssinen- DK $3.6K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
It is much harder to find optimal value on the slate tonight, however, we do have Nashville in a good spot, despite playing on a back-to-back. Parssinen has found his way back to the top-line after a spell on the fourth-line. Parssinen is also on a 4-game point streak, totaling 5 assists, 6 shots and 2 blocked shots. There is no better spot for a back-to-back, as the Canadiens are one of the worst defenses over the last 10 games. They are third-worst in both Shots Against Per 60 – 34.56 – and Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.81 – and they are the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.26 –. Expected started Montembeault has also conceded 17 goals in his last 3 games. This is a ‘no-brainer’.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dubois (DK $6.4K || FD $8.4K), Seguin (DK $4.4K || FD $5.4K)
Wings
Alexis Lafreniere- DK $2.6K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Per the norm, Lafreniere is still not producing enough, considering the hype he had entering the draft. The former first-overall pick has just 18 points – 5 goals and 13 assists through 41 appearances this season –. With teammate Chris Kreider being out tonight, Lafreniere is getting another chance to shine in the top-six alongside familiar faces Mika Zibanejad and Kaapo Kakko. Lafreniere will also get a chance on the top power-play unit, making his salary laughable, given the opportunities he will see.
Artturi Lehkonen- DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K
Opponent -Chicago Blackhawks
Lehkonen is another eye-popping play tonight against the aforementioned Blackhawks’ defense. Lehkonen’s production has gone down, however, he is in a premium matchup tonight, providing the perfect bounce-back spot. In his last 5 games, he has 3 assists, 9 shots and 2 blocked shots. It remains to be seen how long teammate Mikko Rantanen will play on the second-line, but as long as he is there, Lehkonen should see his shot volume increase.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ehlers (DK $7.1K || FD $9.2K), Pacioretty (DK $7K || FD $9.1K)
Defense
Samuel Girard- DK $3.4K || FD $4K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
To cap things off with the Avalanche, we have Girard. It was very difficult to find trustworthy ‘value’ plays tonight at defense, but Girard makes his case. The second-pairing defenseman has not produced below 8 fantasy points over his last five games while tallying 1 goal, 2 assists, 5 shots and 11 blocked shots. The peripherals are there as expected, however, his scoring is not. Given his salary, it will not take much for him to maintain and possibly exceed value given his matchup.
Brett Pesce- DK $4K || FD $4.9K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
It seems all it took was to move Pesce to the top power-play unit to get him clicking again. The defenseman over 41 appearances this season has 15 total points – 2 goals and 13 assists –. Excluding Pesce’s lack of scoring production – on pace to set career highs –, his lack of peripheral stats is the most concerning. Pesce has never been the scoring type of defender, setting a career-high in goals – 7, in 21-22 – and a career-high in assists – 22, in 18-19 –. However, he has always been a great peripheral player for the Hurricanes to help make up for his lack of scoring. This season he is not doing either, however, he now gets the chance to showcase what he can do given a bigger role. In the last 3 games, Pesce has taken over quarterback duties on the top power-play and in that time he has 3 assists, 9 shots and 2 blocked shots. That is a huge increase in production on all ends and the Blue Jackets offer a great spot to help him continue that.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rielly (DK $5K || FD $6.1K), Dunn (DK $4.6K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- COL1
- TB1
- CAR1
- WPG1
- OTT1
- VGK1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- COL: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rodrigues
Chalk Stack
- CAR: Pacioretty-Aho-Jarvis
Sneaky Stack
- NYR: Lafreniere-Zibanejad-Kakko
