NFL DFS Lineup Sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 16 Value Picks Include Daniel Jones, D'Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Noah Fant

This week is probably one of the biggest weeks in recent memory that involves the weather severely impacting the outcome of NFL contests. Heavy snow storms are expected throughout much of the country and just about all of the games being played outdoors will be affected. While we can't always predict the weather, it's important to remember that heavy winds tend to impact the outcome of games more than occurrences like rain, cold, or snow. The majority of the games this weekend will be played on Saturday, which is Christmas Eve versus Sunday.

The purpose of this article is to help identify players who are being undervalued in DFS and typically come with a higher range of outcomes for their game. You don't always need a player to be the QB1 or RB1 on the week (especially if you are playing in cash games), but in Guaranteed Prize Pool contests we always want to be targeting the players with the highest potential upside at their given DFS price. Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon was one such player as he finished as the RB1 in the last two weeks and was priced well below $6k on DraftKings.

This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 16. Now let's get to those picks already!

Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16

Daniel Jones, NYG at MIN| DK: $5,600, FD: $7,400

It may not always be pretty at times, but this season Jones has been getting the job done for fantasy despite being inconsistent. He has excelled on the ground with 583 rushing yards and 5 TDs, all of which are career-high. This weekend the Giants get to play indoors against a struggling Minnesota Vikings defense that is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at 19.9 per game! To put Jones' rushing upside in perspective it is worth the equivalent of 12 passing TDs and an extra 1,000 yards passing in terms of stats, that's how much of a cheat code running QBs are for fantasy.

While Jones may be limited by the number of weapons around him, this game does feature to have some scoring in it. If you are also worried about weather conditions for games outdoors you can find solace in picking players from this one. Jones has two Top 3 weekly finishes as a fantasy QB and the upside is there for him in your lineup. Where has struggled this season is through the air with just 12 TDs and 2,694 yards passing in 14 games. Nonetheless, if you want to save your funds to spend elsewhere you can do a lot worse than Jones.

Geno Smith, SEA at KC| DK: $5,800, FD: $7,600

One of the surprises of the 2022 season, Geno was named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad and has been a delight for fantasy, especially in Superflex formats. On the year, Geno has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 11 of his 14 starts and comes with a solid weekly floor. The Seahawks face a Chiefs defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs at 20.8 per game.

While star receiver Tyler Lockett will miss the contest with a fractured finger, the Seahawks will be forced to air it out in this one. If you are looking for spot starts in a pinch, both Marquise Goodwin and Noah Fant are intriguing plays. While the weather may be a concern at Arrowhead Stadium, Geno has been a solid performer for fantasy this season and has plenty of upside. He is much more mobile of a quarterback than he gets credit for with 281 yards rushing and 1 TD on the ground. In his last 8 starts, Geno hasn't finished worse than QB15 in any of them. He is just about as consistent as they come.

Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16

D'Andre Swift, DET at CAR| DK: $5,500, FD: $8,000

No doubt Swift has been disappointing for fantasy this season, but he's also been playing injured for much of the year. If you are playing in a GPP you always want to be choosing someone with the potential for week-winning upside, which Swift has. While he didn't play a full workload last week he did look good doing so rushing 8 times for 52 yards and catching 5 passes for 23 yards. The Lions face a must-win game against the Carolina Panthers. Also of note: Swift is not on the Lions' injury report this week!

Swift finished as the RB3 and RB4 in the first two weeks of the season before being injured. The Lions probably rushed him back more than they should have early on and he played hobbled albeit sparingly as a situational pass catcher. When healthy we know what he can bring to the table, not just as a runner but as a pass catcher as well. While Jamaal Williams has been having a nice season of his own, especially in the red zone we know he isn't on the same level as Swift when it comes to pure running skills. If you want to roll the dice this week, Swift is a favorable play.

James Cook, BUF @ CHI| DK: $4,900, FD: $5,300

The Bills - Bears matchup this weekend features to be one of the games that will be severely impacted by the weather due to the cold and the heavy wind gusts expected at Soldier Field. The Bears' defense is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season at 23.1 points per game and we know the high-octane Bills offense can score at will.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott prefers to slowly bring along rookies and Cook's production has been ramping up in recent weeks. Over the last three games, Cook has played 43, 41, and 36 percent of the offensive snaps which are all a season-high for him. He is a threat out of the backfield as a receiver just as much as a runner. Given the harsh conditions in this one and the fact that starting RB Devin Singletary has been less involved in the offense, it appears a nice window of opportunity has opened for Cook to make an impact for fantasy.

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16

DJ Moore, CAR vs DET| DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100

Another player who has been frustrating for fantasy purposes this season, Moore has been largely held back by poor coaching and even worse quarterback play since Cam Newton's body began breaking down several years ago. Last week, Moore had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD. While he hasn't always had consistent fantasy production, it's easy to see that DJ would easily be a Top 7-10 receiver in the NFL and for fantasy if he had better quarterback play.

Playing quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends against the Detroit Lions' defense has been a recipe for fantasy success all season long. The Lions are giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the year at 33.7 points per game. There could be plenty of points scored in this one and with the Lions' defense largely being unable to stop anyone, Moore could be a sneaky good value this week. While there is always a risk for a goose egg in DFS, we are aiming for Moore's potential upside which is plentiful.

Darius Slayton, NYG at MIN| DK: $5,200, FD: $6,300

A player who has flashed some serious potential at times but has had an up-and-down career on the Giants, Slayton has had some solid games for fantasy this season stepping up after Sterling Shepard went down for the season, rookie Wan'Dale Robinson was been injured, and the veteran Kenny Golladay found himself in the coach's doghouse. Over his last five games, Slayton has seen a total of 34 targets and has emerged as Daniel Jones' favorite target in the Big Apple.

The good news for Slayton is that this week's contest against the Vikings is indoors and their defense has largely been unable to stop anybody this season. Slayton has also played 92, 83, and 94 percent of the team's offensive snaps over the last 3 weeks. If you are looking for a receiver who you don't have to worry about being impacted by the weather and has some week-winning upside then look no further than Slayton. Andy Holloway from The Fantasy Footballers Podcast has Slayton as one of his favorite picks of the week as well.

Marquise Goodwin, SEA at KC| DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800

A former track star who competed in the 2012 Olympic games, the journeyman receiver has some shown playmaking ability over his career and even at age 32 still has world-class speed. The Chiefs' defense has been giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year at 30.3 points per game. While they aren't necessarily an awful defense, opposing teams going up against Patrick Mahomes know they are going to have to keep scoring points to keep up with them.

On the season, Goodwin has just 27 receptions for 387 yards and 4 TDs but he has also played sparingly in the offense. With receiver Tyler Lockett out for this week's game, there is ample opportunity for Goodwin to step up and produce for your fantasy lineup. With his speed, he is capable of breaking a long touchdown at any time and feels worth the dart throw for DFS purposes at such a low price.

Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16

Dalton Schultz, PHI vs DAL| DK: $4,200, FD: $6,100

It's no secret that Schultz has been underperforming for fantasy purposes this season after getting banged up in Week 2 and hasn't looked the same. Nonetheless, he is still one of the top options on an offense that has been putting up a ton of points lately. In their last six games, Dallas has scored 28, 40, 28, 54, 27, and 34 points. This week they face off against their archrival Philadelphia Eagles in a must-win game as the Eagles will be without QB Jalen Hurts.

Philly's defense is no doubt a tough one this week, but we also don't usually see a tight end with such consistent volume available at a low price in DFS. Over his last 7 games, Schultz has seen a total of 44 targets. While he has regressed a little bit on the TD side of things (just 3 compared to 8 last year), the surging Cowboys offense will likely need to continue scoring points in this one. Given his volume and the lack of other options at TE, Schultz feels like a relatively safe pick this week.

Noah Fant, SEA at KC| DK: $3,400, FD: $5,300

An athletic specimen in his own right, Fant has all the potential in the world. The only problem? He was held back by poor QB play during his three years in Denver and on run-heavy Seattle this year, he has been the third fiddle in the passing game behind stars DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With Lockett out this week with a finger injury there is a big opportunity for Fant to produce for fantasy.

Against Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith and company will be forced to continue airing it out to keep up. If rookie Kenneth Walker III isn't able to suit up (he is listed as questionable), then the Seahawks will likely throw 40+ times in this one. After a hot start to the season, the Hawks have dropped 4 of their last 5 games to fall to 7-7. They need this one badly and likely will need Fant to step and make some big plays to get the victory.

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