RADIO
Is Baker Mayfield for real? We’ll get another chance to see this week when the Los Angeles Rams go to frigid Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football.
Each team’s quarterback is at a different stage of their career, but they’ve both been struggling. Aaron Rodgers needs to prove he still belongs in the NFL as a starting quarterback. Mayfield needs to prove he ever did.
Last week, Mayfield wowed on Thursday Night Football, leading the Rams to a comeback victory that culminated in a 98-yard game-winning drive after having just been claimed off waivers two days prior. He has surprised fans and proved critics wrong throughout his collegiate and pro career. Can he do it again? Let’s look at the SHARP App for betting insights.
The Spread
The Packers are seven-point favorites. That’s down two points from when it opened on December 6. The unexpected success of Baker Mayfield as the Rams’ signal-caller has something to do with it. But Vegas didn’t overemphasize the results of last week’s Thursday Night game too much.
It was against the Raiders, who have given up a record number of 13-point comebacks this season. The Raiders made a lot of mistakes to help extend that final drive. Baker has shown magic before, but it usually doesn’t last.
I like Green Bay to win, but I am concerned about the line. The Rams are bad and have lost six games by a touchdown or more, but are the Packers really that much better?
The Packers have only won two games by seven points or more. Both were against the Bears, a team Aaron Rodgers has owned his whole career. According to ELO, the Rams are almost as bad as the Bears. They rank No. 28 in the NFELO rankings, one spot ahead of Chicago, and No. 27 in FiveThirtyEight’s rankings, three points ahead of the Bears.
Fifty-five percent of betters are taking the Rams against the spread, and 74% of the money is on the Rams to beat the spread, so maybe other betters are also worried the spread is too large.
The Moneyline and Analytics
As for the moneyline, the market is at Green Bay -315/LA +253, but the SHARP App found better lines on both sides. PointsBet gives you Green Bay at -300, and DraftKings gives you LA at +265.
PointsBet’s line gives the Packers an implied win probability of 75%. That is a good deal. SHARP App’s AI model gives the Packers a win probability of 81%. The line should be -425. At -425, you would only win 24% of what you bet, but at -300, you would win 33%. That’s almost $10 more on a $100 bet.
The over/under is 39.5, making this one of the games bookies think will be the lowest-scoring of the week.
The Weather
Green Bay is going to be frigid on Monday night. The high temperature is forecast to be 19 degrees Fahrenheit. That bodes well for Green Bay’s chances of winning and poorly for the Rams’ offense. Teams throw the ball less and score fewer points in freezing-cold games.
Since 2000, the Packers' opponents have averaged 19.2 points per game at Lambeau Field when the temperature was over 32 degrees and just 18.1 points in games with the temperature below freezing. Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been as negatively impacted by the cold. The Packers have an overall home record of 132-48-2 (0.725) since 2020, and they are 32-9-1 (0.762) in below-freezing games at home and 23-6-0 (0.793) in below-freezing home games in December.
My Picks
I’m leaning into Green Bay’s advantage at home and going with the Packers to win by more than seven. The Packers have rested and recovered coming off their bye. Rodgers will be able to work with all of the receivers he so loves for the first time this season. But key Rams defensive players, including Aaron Donald, David Long Jr., and Marquise Copeland, have all been missing practice this week.
Last Thursday, Baker Mayfield couldn’t keep up his performance for an entire game. Now he faces a more uncompromising defense. And he just doesn’t have Monday Night magic. The Browns were 1-4 on MNF games during his time in Cleveland.
Give me the Packers winning 24-14 or so.
Betting Picks: The Packers will beat the spread, and the game total will go under 39.5.
Last Week's Results: The Pats beat the Cards by 14, beating the spread and jumping into the playoff picture. The game total was 40 (under). Finally, I picked the game total right and won across the board. Let’s keep this winning streak going!
Season Record: 3-1 vs. spread, 4-0 on the moneyline, 1-3 on points
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