NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Early Slate (Week 14)

With just five weeks left in the NFL regular season, there are plenty of important matchups on Sunday, with some teams in must-win situations to keep their playoff hopes alive. The same can be said for many fantasy teams out there, but if you've already been eliminated from contention in your fantasy league, don't worry! Our friends at No House Advantage are offering a variety of player prop contests you can join for a chance to win some money!

This week, there are 10 different Pick 'Em contests you can enter to compete with other players for your shot at cash prizes. Some focus on just the early game slate, but there are also contests for the afternoon slate and single-game showdown tournaments for Sunday night and Monday night. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry but feature prize pools worth as much as $30,000.

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct.

We'll get into some of my favorite props for the early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you feel strongly that Ja'Marr Chase will have a big day against his division rival, you would choose Chase's over 87.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Week 14 Early Slate

Garrett Wilson (vs BUF) over 3.5 receptions

I chose Garrett Wilson's receiving yards prop as my 10-point selection last week, and I will happily go right back to the rookie this week in an excellent spot against the Buffalo Bills.

Since Week 9, the Bills have allowed the fifth-most receptions in the league to opposing wide receivers. Better yet, this sample includes Buffalo's first meeting with the Jets this year, in which Wilson hauled in eight of nine targets for 92 yards, crushing this line by four catches. And in case you forgot, there's been a quarterback change in New York since then.

Wilson did have a few solid performances with Zach Wilson at the helm, but he has already shown more chemistry with Mike White. He has averaged an astounding 11.5 targets in two contests with White under center and cleared four receptions in both.

Knowing what the Buffalo offense is capable of, the Jets can't afford to be passive in this divisional bout. Look for them to be aggressive in an attempt to keep up with Josh Allen. It's also important to note that other sportsbooks have Wilson's receptions total set at 5.5, so we're getting a great edge here at just 3.5, a line that he has cleared in eight of 12 career games.

Dak Prescott (vs HOU) under 2.5 passing touchdowns

The Dallas Cowboys have averaged over 37 points per game since Dak Prescott's return to the field in Week 7. It's easy to imagine this trend continuing against a lousy Houston Texans defense on Sunday, but don't be surprised if Prescott turns in a mediocre statistical performance.

Prescott has thrown for three passing touchdowns twice this year, so accomplishing this again is obviously a possible outcome. It's just unlikely to happen against Houston. Sounds crazy, right? Believe it or not, exactly zero quarterbacks this season have thrown for three or more touchdown passes against the Texans. This isn't because they are particularly good at stopping the pass, they are just especially awful at slowing down the run.

Houston surrenders a league-leading 169.1 rushing yards per game on an NFL-high of 34.7 carries. Opposing offenses simply do not need to throw the ball when facing the Texans. This seems very likely to be the case for Dallas, considering the fact that the Texans are tied for the second-most giveaways in the league, while the Cowboys' defense is tied for second in takeaways and defensive touchdowns.

In summary, this is not a bet that Prescott can't throw for three touchdowns, but a confident wager that he will not have to. Prescott's line is set at 1.5 touchdowns on other sportsbooks, and Dallas should handle Houston pretty easily through the running game and defensive prowess.

Adam Thielen (vs DET) under 5.5 receptions

In all honesty, this is a solid matchup for Adam Thielen as the Lions allow a fair amount of passing attempts and yardage every week. He even reached exactly six receptions in the Vikings' first matchup with Detroit back in Week 3. Things have changed since then.

Minnesota acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson at the NFL trade deadline, and the 25-year-old has been heavily utilized ever since. In the five contests Thielen and Hockenson have shared the field, Thielen has out-targeted Hockenson just once. That one game also marks the only time Thielen has eclipsed six receptions since the Hockenson trade.

On Sunday, Hockenson will return to Detroit, and surely he will be motivated to put on a show against his former team. He should have no trouble doing so as the Lions have struggled to contain tight ends all season. This could prove detrimental to Thielen's already-decreasing target share.

This divisional showdown could turn into a shootout, so there's certainly a chance Thielen has a big game. I am willing to bet against it though, as he will likely be the third option behind Hockenson and superstar Justin Jefferson. Thielen's receptions prop is sitting at 4.5 at plus-odds on other books, reaffirming that this 5.5 line is a bit high.

Lower Confidence Picks - Week 14 Early Slate

Daniel Jones (vs PHI) under 1.5 passing touchdowns

The Giants' success has been one of the best surprises in the NFL this year, but they will be put to the test this week against the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles.

Daniel Jones has recorded two passing touchdowns just three times in 2022, all coming in plus-matchups. The Eagles have allowed a handful of signal-callers to eclipse that mark this season, but limit quarterbacks to the fewest passing yards per game in the league.

If the Giants struggle to move the ball through the air, it's highly unlikely that Jones winds up with two passing scores, and much more probable that they lean on the running game with Saquon Barkley.

Other sportsbooks have Jones' passing touchdowns prop at 0.5, so projecting him for two or more feels like a lofty expectation.

Tyler Huntley (vs PIT) over 0.5 interceptions

With Lamar Jackson nursing a knee injury, Tyler Huntley is expected to make his first start of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Although an interception is never a given, Pittsburgh's takeaways as of late are hard to ignore.

The Steelers have recorded an interception in four straight games, picking off two passes in two of them. With T.J. Watt removed from the team's Week 14 injury report, Huntley could be prone to make some mistakes while under pressure. This is especially true while playing in Pittsburgh, where opponents have thrown 1.4 interceptions per game this year.

Huntley got his first action of 2022 last week and did throw an interception in a difficult matchup with the Denver Broncos. The third-year pro was also liable to turn the ball over in 2021. In four starts last season, Huntley threw four interceptions, with two of them coming in Week 18 against the Steelers.

Interceptions are hard to predict, which is why this is a lower-confidence selection. But Huntley seems as good a bet as any quarterback to throw a pick on Sunday.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs MIN) over 81.5 receiving yards

Similarly to Garrett Wilson, I have been betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown on No House Advantage for the past few weeks, and he has been coming through consistently. Also like Wilson, St. Brown will have a great opportunity to succeed again this week.

St. Brown has demolished this line in three of his last four contests and fell just six yards shy in Week 11. What makes him so appealing this week is his matchup against the Vikings, who have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL through 13 games.

We already discussed how the T.J. Hockenson trade impacts the Vikings on the other side of the field, but the deal's impact on St. Brown should also not be ignored. Amon-Ra has averaged exactly 10 targets per game in five contests without Hockenson this year. Jared Goff should look for him frequently in this matchup with one of the highest-projected point totals of the week.

The Lions already got a look at the Vikings in Week 3, and St. Brown almost definitely would have eclipsed this line if it weren't for an ankle injury he suffered in the second quarter. St. Brown did return to the game, but ultimately only played on 73 percent of snaps and still managed six receptions for 73 yards.

Week 14 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 14 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

Play the NFL Picks Em Now on No House Advantage

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