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The World Cup group stages have come to a close and the round of 16 is set. We have our first four knockout ties taking place over the weekend with the second four taking place early next week and it's these games we're focusing on here. The Monday and Tuesday games see the winners and runners-up from groups E, F, G and H pair off for a place in the quarter-finals.
Japan stunned the World by topping Group E, knocking Spain into the second spot and eliminating Germany altogether. Morocco wasn't to be outdone as they topped Group F with Croatia reaching the second round as runners-up and sending Belgium home early. Portugal and Brazil were comfortable group winners but the second places in Groups G and H went down to the wire with South Korea pipping Uruguay to a place in the knockout stages and Switzerland edging out Serbia.
Like we did for the group stage, we'll be putting a total of 25 units across these fixtures and playing the ones that I believe offer us the best value. Just remember that unless specified, all bets are for 90 minutes and do not include extra time or a penalty shootout.
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Monday, December 05th, 2022
Japan vs Croatia 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Japan 1 - 1 Croatia (Croatia to win on penalties)
Japan's group stage was something to behold. Stunning come-from-behind wins against Germany and Spain sandwiched a 1-0 loss against Costa Rica but the six points were enough for Japan to win the group and eliminate Germany. They'll feel a little bit aggrieved that their reward is a last-16 tie with Croatia but they've proved they can mix it up with Europe's best and won't have any fear.
Croatia's 0-0 draw with Belgium (their second in the group) was enough to see the World number two-ranked side knocked out and help them finish second in the group behind Tunisia. Croatia kept two clean sheets in the group stage but their four goals all came against Canada, with blanks coming against Belgium and Tunisia. They will be keen to find their shooting boots in the knockout stage.
Japan's group-stage heroics will have them going into the second round on a high but Croatia are one of the best sides at controlling the game and Japan will need to find even more magic if they are to progress to their first-ever quarter-final. It is set to be a tight game with the lottery of a penalty shootout possibly being needed to find a winner and I'd favor Croatia if that was the case.
Betting picks
Japan second half goals - Over 0.5 (+120 PointsBet) 2 units
Both of Japan's wins have come from second-half comebacks and I suspect they will look to frustrate Croatia for as long as possible and counter-attack. More space should open up in the second 45 minutes and that presents Japan with the best opportunity to find a goal.
Most yellow cards - Japan (+105 PointsBet) 2 units
Croatia has only two yellow cards awarded to them so far, both coming in their 4-1 win against Canada. They didn't receive a single yellow card in their other two matches. Japan has been shown six yellow cards and in a game where I'm expecting Croatia to have much more possession, Japan seeing more cautions looks like a good shout.
Players to watch
Ivan Perišić is yet to find the net himself but has assisted two of Croatia's four goals and no one in the squad has had more than his five shots. Only Luka Modrić (nine) has more shot-creating actions than Perišić (eight) as the veteran winger continues to be a reliable source of attack for Croatia.
Ritsu Doan has had a memorable yet unusual World Cup so far. He came off the bench in the first game against Germany and scored the equalizer before Japan went on to win the game. He started the 1-0 defeat against Costa Rica, lasting just 66 minutes before starting on the bench again against Spain. Then, he came on for the second half, scored the equalizer and Japan went on to win the game. Whether he starts or not, he's certainly carried Japan's biggest goal threat so far.
Brazil vs South Korea 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Brazil 2 - 1 South Korea
Brazil had all but guaranteed top spot in Group G before making wholesale changes to their lineup for their final group game against Cameroon, in which they lost 1-0. Their first two games were comprehensive wins, by 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines with their opponents Serbia and Switzerland failing to register a shot on target. Critics will look at them scoring just three goals so far and they're set to be without star forward Neymar but remain favorites to lift the trophy.
South Korea needed an injury-time winner against Portugal in the final group game to progress to the second round. That was the first time in the World Cup that they'd led in a game after a 0-0 draw with Uruguay and a 3-2 defeat against Ghana. They edged out Uruguay for the runner-up spot courtesy of scoring more goals than the South Americans and since their goalless draw with Uruguay, have looked more of a threat going forward.
I can't see South Korea beating Brazil but I don't think the World Cup favorites run away with it. If Brazil manages to go a couple of goals up, they may take their foot off the gas and give South Korea some hope and the Asian side has shown a propensity to come back in games. They trailed Ghana 2-0 before coming back to level at 2-2 (before ultimately losing) and came from a goal down to beat Portugal. Going a goal down against Brazil could be too much for them but don't completely write off South Korea.
Betting picks
Half with most goals - Second half (+108 FanDuel) 3 units
Brazil's three group games were all goalless at half-time while of South Korea's four goals scored so far, only one has come in the first half. If South Korea frustrates Brazil, it could be goalless at the interval and if either team does have a half-time lead, we can expect it to be a more open game in the second half.
South Korea total corners - Over 2.5 (+108 FanDuel) 4 units
Brazil has conceded at least three corners in each of their group games while South Korea has taken at least three in all of their matches (and 20 in total). Plus odds for the Koreans to get three corners appears to be too good of a price to turn down.
Players to watch
Richarlison fired in a brace as Brazil beat Serbia 2-0, but struggled to have an impact against Switzerland before being rested for their final game against Cameroon. With Neymar sidelined and now Gabriel Jesus set to miss the remainder of the tournament, Richarlison will be carrying much of the hopes of the favorites on his shoulders.
Richarlison's Tottenham teammate Son Heung-min hasn't been anywhere near his best for his club this season and hadn't made much of an impact at the World Cup until he set up Hwang Hee-chan for South Korea's match-winner against Portugal which saw them progress to the knockout stage. He'll need to be impactful on Monday if South Korea has any hope of causing a huge upset.
Today's World Cup Sportsbook Odds - Second Round
- DraftKings Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on DraftKings!
- Japan to win +285
- Morocco to win +600
- Morocco/Spain to draw +290
- Brazil to win -370
- Brazil/South Korea to draw +500
- Portugal/Switzerland to draw +245
- FanDuel Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on FanDuel!
- Portugal to win -110
- BetMGM Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on BetMGM!
- Japan/Croatia to draw +225
- South Korea to win +1150
- PointsBet Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on PointsBet!
- Croatia to win +110
- Caesars Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on Caesars
- Spain to win -170
- Switzerland to win +350
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Tuesday, December 06th, 2022
Morocco vs Spain 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Morocco 0 - 2 Spain
Morocco caused a huge shock by topping Group F containing Belgium and Croatia. They went unbeaten, picking up seven points and keeping clean sheets against the European duo. They'll probably feel a bit hard done by having to now face Spain in the second round but they've proved they compete with the big nations and won't have any fear facing Spain.
Spain battered Costa Rica 7-0 in their opening game and was being talked about as the favorites to win the World Cup. But a 1-1 draw with Germany followed by a 2-1 loss against Japan has many questioning their capabilities of going deep in the tournament. They've had the majority of possession in their games, as is their way, but they'll want to tighten things up defensively without losing a cutting edge if they are to make a run at winning it all.
Japan set the blueprint for how to beat Spain and I expect Morocco to play a similar style of defending deep and looking to counter. Whether they can frustrate Spain long enough and maintain enough energy to go and score themselves is not something I'm sure about so I'm still backing Spain to win but certainly think Morocco will put up a good showing and I wouldn't be completely shocked if the African nation caused an upset.
Betting picks
To win to nil - Spain (+130 PointBet) 2 units
Only five nations have had fewer shots (24) and fewer shot-creating actions (43) than Morocco. Their 2.4 xG (expected goals) was the lowest in their group and Spain will want to control the game like they're so good at which should minimize Morocco's chances to score even further.
Corners handicap - Spain -2.0 (+100 FanDuel) 6 units
Spain has only taken 13 corners in the tournament so far but Morocco's three corners taken was the second-fewest in the group stage. Morocco has conceded 20 corners so far and their opponents have taken four or more than them in every game. Spain has allowed the fewest (five) corners in the tournament.
Players to watch
Hakim Ziyech hasn't had much fun at Chelsea, starting just one EPL game this season. But he was instrumental in Morocco's shock group win, with one goal and one assist. He leads his side in shots (six) and shot-creating actions (eight) so it's likely he'll be the cause of any upset victory Morocco manages to pull off.
Pedri only turned 20 years old during the group stage but already has 17 caps for his country and is a key player for both Spain and Barcelona. He's yet to score an international goal but his role is to keep Spain moving and pushing forward as evidenced by his 258 completed passes in the tournament (fourth most). He leads Spain in shot-creating actions (12) and could hold the key to unlocking the Moroccan defense.
Portugal vs Switzerland 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Portugal 2 - 2 Switzerland (Switzerland to win on penalties)
Portugal winning their first two group games allowed them the cushion to make changes and take their foot off the pedal a bit against South Korea in their final group game. That led to them losing 2-1 despite taking an early lead but they were never under any threat of losing the top spot in the group and avoiding a second-round tie with Brazil. Only Spain and England scored more goals than Portugal in the group stage.
Switzerland needed a final-game victory over Serbia to secure their spot in the second round in a topsy-turvy game they led, then trailed but ultimately won 3-2. They beat Cameroon in their first game with the defeat against Brazil their only blemish, so they can consider their group stage performance a solid one. Their performance against Cameroon was a professional one and they were the better side for much of their game against Serbia. Brazil didn't manage a breakthrough against them until the 83rd minute too so the Swiss aren't to be taken lightly.
Portugal hasn't looked particularly good defensively, conceding two goals against Ghana and then South Korea. They still heavily rely on Cristiano Ronaldo to lead their attack while Switzerland is a much more complete team but lack a superstar like Ronaldo. I still fancy the Swiss to cause an upset but do think this one goes the distance with both teams finding the net more than once.
Betting picks
To qualify - Switzerland (+200 PointsBet) 1 unit
The Swiss came close to drawing with Brazil and have shown all sides to their game so far. Defensive solidity in their first two games and attacking prowess against Serbia. If they can do both against Portugal, I can certainly see the underdogs progressing.
Both teams to score - Yes (+125 PointsBet) 5 units
Portugal looks vulnerable defensively, conceding twice against Ghana and then South Korea but they've found the net in every game so far. Switzerland likely won't be gung-ho in this one but I'm more confident in both teams finding the net in this game than I am of any other second-round tie.
Players to watch
Cristiano Ronaldo needs no introduction but is in danger of being upstaged by his former teammate at Manchester United. Bruno Fernandes has played a part in four of Portugal's six goals, scoring twice and assisting two also. He didn't play at all against South Korea so should be well-rested for this tie.
No one exemplifies Switzerland's style more than their captain Granit Xhaka. Both firey and good in position, he has the ability to create and score a goal from very little. He plays a more disciplined role for the national team than he does at club side Arsenal, but still leads Switzerland in shots (five) and shots on target (three) while only Manuel Akanji (171) has completed more passes (150). He will be integral for the Swiss side if they are to reach the quarter-finals.
Good luck with those World Cup bets and remember to bet responsibly!
