RADIO
The Tom Kim train steamed into the station on Sunday, blitzing the field with a 61 in his final round. We were lucky enough to bet him when his putter roasted the Sedgefield greens, but golf is a weird sport and when things like that happen, we enjoy them as we have been on the wrong end of those kinds of performances many times before.
The Tom Kim win is our fourth outright in 21 events, which puts us well ahead of schedule regarding breaking even every eight events in the outright market. The last six weeks have been amazing, profiting in five of those and barely losing money at the Scottish. On the season, we have returned 17.38% on our $100 each week, totaling $364.95 in profits which is really exciting stuff. Hopefully we can keep it going through the end of the year.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown and Key Stats
TPC Southwind, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,243, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Ron Prichard
The tour shuffles its slimmed-down field to Memphis where 125 golfers who made the playoffs will look to rise up the rankings in Tom Kim fashion. We remain on a Par 70 and Bermuda putting surface which should help keep the handicapping process similar to last week with a few key changes still taking place.
Southwind is a ball striker's paradise, with approach play carrying one of the strongest correlations we have seen this year, particularly from 125-200 proximity ranges, where golfers will find themselves 65% of the time. To put this percentage into perspective, it is a combined 11% more than tour average, so success from this range is paramount this week.
Accuracy off the tee as well as general dominance with the driver will be crucial to putt approach shots in premium positions to attack flags. With scores typically falling in the mid-teens, birdie or better percentage will once again be an important metric in the first week of the playoffs.
Below are the settings for the model:
- We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 72% 2022 stats and 28% 2021 stats.
- Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (75%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (5%).
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. The theme of the outright card includes two guys who both won the last tournament they played in and then two guys who have had multiple close calls recently and continue to strike the ball sensationally.
Cameron Smith ($6.65 @ +1800 on DraftKings)
The Champion Golfer of the Year and our Breaking $100 cash cow makes his millionth appearance on our card. Cameron Smith is officially the second-ranked golfer in the world and appears to be as hungry as ever to continue to add hardware to a trophy cabinet that is filling up quicker than me at a Paula Dean buffet.
The model has him ranked first in this field courtesy of his field-best birdie percentage, world class short game, and an approach profile that has a baseline that could spell trouble for the rest of the field if his irons return back to tip-top form. Although he is relatively poor off the tee, he now has a new driver in the bag that he has gained strokes in seven of his last eight rounds.
If Smith can continue to hit that beautiful butter cut off the tee, the rest of his game is poised to improve on his T5 finish he had here last year, with a fantastic opportunity to win back-to-back starts, tie Scottie Scheffler with four wins on the season, and close the gap on the best player in the world.
Joohyung "Tom" Kim ($3.05 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
Joohyung "Tom" Kim finds himself back on our card after sealing the deal for us last week in epic fashion. He putted lights out, but if he can continue to play great golf in his eighth consecutive start, he can lean on his ball striking this week to get the job done again. He is extremely accurate off the tee and can really dial in his approach play, which is typically from the middle of the fairway.
In his limited starts this year, Tom has made a ton of birdies and should continue to do so this week. He seems to enjoy putting on Bermuda greens, gaining a gargantuan +12.55 strokes last week. That kind of performance will be tough to repeat, but he is obviously playing with immense confidence right now and hopefully we can continue to take advantage of that if he goes back-to-back.
Russell Henley ($2.45 @ +5000 on Draftkings)
Russell Henley enters the week in red-hot form with his irons. In a star-studded field, over the last eight rounds, only Tom Hoge has gained more strokes on approach. At an event that has seen past winners do so without gaining putting, Henley is a perfect candidate to ball-strike his way to victory. Henley putts better on Bermuda greens compared to all surfaces which could help him immensely when contending for a win.
Russell is also one of the best in the world from 125-200 and continues to flash world-class accuracy off the tee, giving him every weapon necessary to be a menace in Memphis. Even with a putter that can go ice cold at times, Henley is still inside the top 20 in birdie percentage. If Henley can conquer the "Sunday Scaries", his game is primed to break into the winner's circle again.
Emilliano Grillo ($0.85 @ +15000 on DK)
Similar to Henley, Emilliano Grillo is one of the best ball strikers in the field and after a brief departure from ball-striking excellence earlier in the year, the "Grill-o" has ignited and could cook through a titanium t-bone steak when all the burners are on. Off the tee, he remains one of the best in the world, ranking 18th on tour, using both accuracy and distance to frequent that ranking list with guys like Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas.
Grillo cooks best on Bermuda greens and is really solid from 0-15 feet, which is where the majority of birdie putts will come from this week. His last three starts have been T2, MC, T2, and is somehow 150-1 to win a golf tournament. If the short game can behave itself this week, the rest of Grillo's game is peaking at a course that suits his skill profile, which gives him a fantastic shot at winning.
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First-Round Leaders
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on three guys to net $110 or more. Rory McIlroy makes the FRL card averaging a RIDICULOUS +6.08 strokes gained in his last six Thursday rounds.
Rory McIlroy ($5.25 @ +2600 on FanDuel)
Cameron Smith ($4.50 @ +3000 on DraftKings)
Russell Henley ($2.25 @ +6000 on Ceasars)
Placings
We have six placing bets, with three top 20 and three top 40 bets. Looks like BetMGM has odds out this week for T20 AND T40, which is AWESOME! When a book offers ties paid in full, we are willing to drop the odds required to meet the betting threshold by 30 points, as avoiding dead heat rules is worth paying that premium.
Sam Burns (T20: $11.7 @ +175 on FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa (T20: $11.66 @ +130 on BetMGM)
Joohyung Kim (T20: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Emilliano Grillo (T40: $11.66 @ +125 on BetMGM)
Mark Hubbard (T40: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Tom Hoge (T40: $11.66 @ +140 on BetMGM)
The Farewell Fiver
Keegan Bradley (T10: $5 @ +700 on BetMGM)
Keegan Bradley has been one of my favorite golfers to bet on, as a ball striker like him who seems to have found a putter, offers a lot of upside if the two parts of his game can quit feuding with each other. The nerves may get to him when looking to win, so why not grab 7-1 odds for a top 10 if he plays like he should?
Wyndham Championship Recap:
- Outright: $114.5
- FRL: $-12
- Placings: $51.65
- Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
- Total: $149.15
- Season Total: $364.95
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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